ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#601 Postby **oaba09** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:05 am

Wow, the ATL is active....The site suddenly came back to life...

#602 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:06 am

Looks like if it isn't already moving NNW, it will soon be going that direction and even more northerly, based on the cloud field really oozing norhtward in those last frames. That usually indicates the direction the storm will be headed. I don't think IDA will be traveling too far inland. But it appears it will stay inland for quite a while, just not far inland. That should have it slowly weaken, but not completely disrupt it since there will be ample feeding of moisture from the eastern side of the storm which will remain over the water.

Weatherboy1 · #603 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:07 am

Based on climatology, I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Ida were to ever get to the central/north Gulf Coast. I would also be absolutely floored if the GFDL intensify forecast verified. We are in early November. Almost EVERY storm that forms this time of year in that general area gets pulled N then NE due to stronger fronts. They almost always get sheared to shreds once they get north of 20N or so too. I suspect Ida will eventually make a FL landfall somewhere on the west coast, and not as a strong storm either. See Mitch in 1998, Michelle in 2001, etc.

KWT · #604 Postby **KWT** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:10 am

I'd have thought that if it does try and take the NHC path then its going to be sheared apart before it reaches the coast, probably somewhat similar to Jeanne in 1980 as cycloneye has mentioned before.

I'd be very surprised if it doesn't curve NE and towards Florida/Cuba...

#605 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:12 am

Looks to have been about 75 kt at landfall.

KWT · #606 Postby **KWT** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:15 am

One thing to note is that whilst the GFDL is impressive it probably keeps it a little strong as it keeps it offshore for a good deal longer then will be the case.

Still should be noted that the W. Caribbean is the one place where a major hurricane is quite possible in November, look at Michelle, Paloma and the probable category 5 1932 Cuban hurricane.

#607 Postby **ozonepete** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:22 am

HURAKAN wrote:

Great loop

Just love that loop.

#608 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:31 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks to have been about 75 kt at landfall.

I agree.

#609 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:32 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:Based on climatology, I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Ida were to ever get to the central/north Gulf Coast. I would also be absolutely floored if the GFDL intensify forecast verified. We are in early November. Almost EVERY storm that forms this time of year in that general area gets pulled N then NE due to stronger fronts. They almost always get sheared to shreds once they get north of 20N or so too. I suspect Ida will eventually make a FL landfall somewhere on the west coast, and not as a strong storm either. See Mitch in 1998, Michelle in 2001, etc.

Based on climatology, a hurricane shouldn't make landfall in Nicaragua on November. Oh wait, it just happened!!!

IvanSurvivor · #610 Postby **IvanSurvivor** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:46 am

Wow! Don't know what the time frame is exactly for this to reach NGOM...if it were to actually do that...but next Friday is Friday the 13th! :eek:

Thunder44 · #611 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:56 am

000
As we suspected the flights have been cancelled for today and tonight. But they have tasked flights to resume on Saturday, when it reemerges in the NW Carribean.

NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EST THU 05 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

#612 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:57 am

...IDA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL NICARAGUA...

Still a hurricane officially.

#613 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:58 am

Latest

#614 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:58 am

Clearly looks to be moving more NW to NNW now. The future track of Ida depends on many factors including it's depth. Everyone along the north Gulf Coast to Florida and Cuba should keep up to date on this!

#615 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:59 am

HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA CONTINUED TO IMPROVE UP UNTIL
LANDFALL...WHICH OCCURRED NEAR TASBAPAUNI NICARAGUA...OR ABOUT
60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS. AN 1117 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND AT THAT
TIME. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT. SINCE
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05. IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE
FIRST 36 TO 48 HOUR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK
MODELS MOVE IDA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
RIGHT OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NHC
TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 13.1N 83.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 13.6N 84.0W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 84.2W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0000Z 15.0N 84.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 84.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 08/1200Z 18.4N 85.4W 40 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

#616 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:01 am

Latest track

#617 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:05 am

Ida is very well organized, perhaps the most organized we have seen from a storm this season aside from the previous Hurricanes. It is also becoming more realistic that Ida will miss the mountains. I am watching intently here in SFL. We will have a much better idea of if Ida will pose a threat to us tomorrow when Ida moves back over water.

#618 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:37 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Looks like if it isn't already moving NNW, it will soon be going that direction and even more northerly, based on the cloud field really oozing norhtward in those last frames. That usually indicates the direction the storm will be headed. I don't think IDA will be traveling too far inland. But it appears it will stay inland for quite a while, just not far inland. That should have it slowly weaken, but not completely disrupt it since there will be ample feeding of moisture from the eastern side of the storm which will remain over the water.

Also, note the clouds streaming from west to east across the central and northern Gulf. Similar flow will be there next week when whatever is left of Ida emerges into the Gulf. I am thinking a landfall between Tampa and Ft. Myers in 7 days. Probably a TS.

Sanibel · #619 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:37 am

Gives me shivers to see that thing blow up so quickly to hurricane. I was thinking that was a hurricane when I saw it last night but didn't want to start the usual back and forth. Maybe GFDL was right this time. Good thing that slipped over Nicaragua!

I'm worried this thing has a strong heart and will rebound when it gets over the boosting waters in the west Caribbean. I think from the synoptic the track will only bend east and towards me.

It figures this weird season would have a late threat. As far as last November breeding storms and this November too I think there's a good debate there for an extended season happening from Global Warming.

#620 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:38 am

The million dollar question , no pun intended , is will Ida survive intact enough to threaten anybody else. I give it about 50/50

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