ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[KWT]

Yep the loops do indicate that shear has increased again though the convection is still just about holding on. Will be interesting to see if it can strengthen as the easterly shear eases off at some point before swings round to the other side.

[cyclonic chronic]

THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA.

could they be hinting that the huge wave right behind it might incorporate t.d. 2 into its circulation?

[HURAKAN]

THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA.

could they be hinting that the huge wave right behind it might incorporate t.d. 2 into its circulation?

Look how far is TD 2 from the disturbance.

[cyclonic chronic]

it is a ways away. maybe it'll be the sacrifical lamb for the rest of the season. t.d 2 and the wave ahead have moistened the atmosphere and seems to have "eaten" the S.A.L. in the Cape Verde region.

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1277

Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.

Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.

[wxman57]

It's not as far away as it seems on that full disk image. Winds south of the depression are heading for the disturbance to the east:

[KWT]

Wxman57, maybe not the right place but does that mean a good inflow supply for that system?

[Thunder44]

Wxman57, maybe not the right place but does that mean a good inflow supply for that system?

Another question I have is, will that system have a impact on TD 2 developing further today? Since it already seems to be robbing some of the inflow from TD 2.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, maybe not the right place but does that mean a good inflow supply for that system?

Another question I have is, will that system have a impact on TD 2 developing further today? Since it already seems to be robbing some of the inflow from TD 2.

It's certainly not helping TD2 to have a much larger system drawing moisture away from TD2. But the disturbance to its west has a long way to go before it becomes a TD.

[x-y-no]

So far, the 12z run of the GFS is very consistent with the past three runs. By 96 hours, TD2 is a very weak system NE of the leeward islands.

It's still quite bullish on the next wave.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[tolakram]

If you look at the visible loop, that big arc of clouds heading off the the east is actually an outflow boundary.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I wonder if convection is about to poof?

I don't believe the shear forecasts either. I think this thing is about to be blasted by 30 to 40 knots of shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[wxman57]

If you look at the visible loop, that big arc of clouds heading off the the east is actually an outflow boundary.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I wonder if convection is about to poof?

I don't believe the shear forecasts either. I think this thing is about to be blasted by 30 to 40 knots of shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Yeah, that's an outflow boundary. High-res visible meteosat shows what looks like the center blowing apart. All I see is clear air now east of the convection where the center was. Can't tell if it might have reformed west under the convection, or if it's lost its center.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[Thunder44]

Another microwave image for winds. Am I reading this right, that the deep purple here shows winds more than 40kts?:

[Scorpion]

Organization or not, there's no reason for it to not be a TS with those winds. I've seen much worse.

[HURAKAN]

Partially exposed but the circulation is as strong as ever.

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[wxman57]

Another microwave image for winds. Am I reading this right, that the deep purple here shows winds more than 40kts?:

http://i28.tinypic.com/15yxf68.jpg

You're reading it right, but I don't think those are surface winds. Winds aloft will be stronger than at the surface. It's presently being blasted by a big burst of ENE shear. Convection is rapidly retreating west of the center. We may see the center completely exposed in the next hour or two.

[Brent]

I've seen FAR worse looking things get named.

[tolakram]

When in doubt go to extreme closeup!

it appears to my amateur eyes that the circulation has been seriously disrupted on the south / southeast side of the storm.



What? You want a closer view?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/A ... .100pc.jpg