ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Sanibel]

Looks like it just hit a brick wall and bounced nearly due north.

[blp]

Here is someting to think about. Check out the shear between where it is now and the Caribbean. It's screaming at at about 40 to 50K out of the SW. I'm wondering if that is why the GFS is losing this system. Anyway, right now it has an anticyclone over it, which would mean good for development.

If that shear hangs around its toast. Convection is pretty disorganized looking at the latest IR, seems to be on a down trend again.

The updates from NHC later tonight may mention this increased shear and indicate "conditions are becoming unfavorable for development..." and keep it code yellow. I could easily see that for the 8AM update tomorrow, or later tonight....I think it will be code yellow even tomorrow when we all wake up.

I think the shear is because of the ULL which has stopped digging to the SW, it should be moving out to the NE by the time it gets up there. I do agree though that this has a long way to go, not yet sold on this developing quickly.

[Gustywind]

Always racing west...with slow organization.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

20090829.94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-106N-420W

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

[southerngale]

Looks like it just hit a brick wall and bounced nearly due north.

I saw someone mention a little earlier that it looked like it was moving wnw now. What loop are you using? I've looked at a few different ones and it still looks like it's generally moving west. Of course I can't find a center to track, but convection is firing in the north part of the mess, as well as the south part, and scattered everywhere in between. I can't tell any specific movement, other than going by the general system, which doesn't *appear* to have changed directions. I'd like to be able to see this northern shift.

[Aric Dunn]

Things seem to be moving along quite well tonight. Its showing more organized banding and convection slowly working towards the center.. unfortunately we cannot rule a island threat as any deviation westward would bring close the islands ( based on current models ).

On the side of shear.. its possible we may see a upper low cut off west of the system .. in a couple days. currently its dropping south just north of the islands. models are actually in at least some agreement on building a ridge back in a turning it westerly. right now this happen from the NE islands to just north of the islands. This is all dependent of timing of a few things, one being its strength the other being how fast the ridge build in and also placement of the upper feature to its north.

tomorrow will provide a little more help with this as we maybe looking a system close to depression status tomorrow evening.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it just hit a brick wall and bounced nearly due north.

I saw someone mention a little earlier that it looked like it was moving wnw now. What loop are you using? I've looked at a few different ones and it still looks like it's generally moving west. Of course I can't find a center to track, but convection is firing in the north part of the mess, as well as the south part, and scattered everywhere in between. I can't tell any specific movement, other than going by the general system, which doesn't *appear* to have changed directions. I'd like to be able to see this northern shift.

unfortunately we cant see whats really going on at the low levels and trying to determine the direction the circulation is going at night is much more difficult than during the day with visible. also with the scattered convection firing and rotating it is very easy to think its moving in one way or the other since the convection can mislead whats actually happening at the surface. but over all motion according to best track seems to be west still .

[Derek Ortt]

one other thing before bed... this is probably not going to hit Florida. Recurve is looking likely. Florida casters likely need to find another disturbance

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 300541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

00z CMC shows a hurricane just north of the Leewards / VI / Puerto Rico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

one other thing before bed... this is probably not going to hit Florida. Recurve is looking likely. Florida casters likely need to find another disturbance

I agree...at least as of right now.,.

[cheezyWXguy]

00z CMC shows a hurricane just north of the Leewards / VI / Puerto Rico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Idk if that run should just be thrown out from the start based on poor initialization. It initializes 94L ok I think, but Jimena in the epac doesnt even exist on that run and its borderline major right now

[curtadams]

Here is someting to think about. Check out the shear between where it is now and the Caribbean. It's screaming at at about 40 to 50K out of the SW. I'm wondering if that is why the GFS is losing this system. Anyway, right now it has an anticyclone over it, which would mean good for development.

Pretty much all the models have predicted that for at least two days. The models all show 94L weakening and moving considerably to the north as it gets close to the island, and that S shear you're mentioning.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Convection has continued to steadily increase...If this trend continues, we could easily expect a tropical depression later today...

[curtadams]

But it's dmax there so convection will likely start decreasing soon. More likely a TD tomorrow night, and very possible it will still fail a technical definition (eg still attached to the ITCZ) and so not a TD for 2 days. Plus the shear the models predict may abort the whole process.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well then when the first morning satellite pics come in we will have a better idea how much this system has come along.

[Stormcenter]

This whatever still looks like it's not headed toward the Carribean or FL and more likely headed NW and then you know where.

[Cyclenall]

This whatever still looks like it's not headed toward the Carribean or FL and more likely headed NW and then you know where.

Based on....

None of the models make any sense with this Invest at all. The CMC was quite wrong with a bunch of systems and the GFS isn't performing well with what's occurring either.

[jlauderdal]

Local Met here in West Palm Beach is talking about a "Tropical Wave" for Wednesday and Thursday. Could it be 94L?
Seems kind of quick to me but I don't see anything else between 94L and here except a ULL.
Any thoughts out there??

yeah, the feature this met is talking about is in no way related to 94L

[Thunder44]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
NNNN