ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

#781 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 7:26 am

Latest

#782 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:00 am

I don't think Freddy has a chance.

#783 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:56 am

tolakram wrote:I don't think Freddy has a chance.

I´m not sure about redevelopment, but I do think that ex Fred has a chance. the tongue of shear that has been destroying it is forecasted by the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS to lift out pretty quickly to the north and east, and after that the shear is relatively light. If however, the shear fails to lift out, Fred is more or less doomed.

#784 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 9:16 am

BigA wrote:
tolakram wrote:I don't think Freddy has a chance.

I´m not sure about redevelopment, but I do think that ex Fred has a chance. the tongue of shear that has been destroying it is forecasted by the CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS to lift out pretty quickly to the north and east, and after that the shear is relatively light. If however, the shear fails to lift out, Fred is more or less doomed.

I don't believe it for a second. Shear forecasts are always pretty shaky, but this year seems worse than normal. We will see.

#785 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 11:05 am

Gone with the wind!

#786 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 12:46 pm

It looks like this will be the last Tropical Weather Outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW MAY PRODUCE
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

breeze · #787 Postby **breeze** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 1:46 pm

OK, now I hear "Taps" playing in the distance....goodbye, Fred...

#788 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 2:16 pm

The empty wheel in motion.

#789 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 3:05 pm

Call me crazy, but I don't think that this particular system is done for. The circulation has not fallen apart yet, and once it gets to 45 west or so, conditions look like they become more favorable for redevelopment, though admittedly, they will not if the tongue of shear moves westward with ex-Fred. I wouldn't put my bets on redevelopment, but it's not a foregone conclusion that it is permanently dead.

Derek Ortt · #790 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 3:21 pm

conditions are not at all favorable to the west. The air is very dry there so any convection would be short lived

#791 Postby **MGC** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 4:04 pm

Fred is dead....MGC

#792 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:19 pm

#793 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:22 pm

"Intermittent showers" watch is back on...

#794 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:25 pm

A small comeback.

#795 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 6:03 pm

Now it looks about as good as Danny...if not better. :roll:

#796 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 6:33 pm

The 2 PM TWO was not the last one.

557
ABNT20 KNHC 142330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

#797 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 6:41 pm

I doubt they will dump it as an Invest until the convection is gone.

#798 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 7:04 pm

Speaking of which,

since it's an active invest it would be nice if Fred displayed on the tracker map above.

Emmett_Brown · #799 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 7:11 pm

Actually, I don't think this is an invest anymore... I haven't seen the GFDL or HWRF run on Fred for over 24 hours now. At any rate, I think it still should be an invest at least. I still this one will make a comeback in earnest starting tomorrow. Just the opinion of a mad scientist, of course, so my opinion doesn't mean anything.

Emmett_Brown · #800 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 14, 2009 7:15 pm

Upper level conditions are still rough, but improving. Fred is now sporting a bit of convection near and to the WEST of the center, which shows that the atmosphere is slowly moistening, and shear, although still strong, is easing just a bit. Some pics from Derek's site:

ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED (07L)

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