ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[caribepr]

Yep, the best hope for you guys is the 18z is right and the system stays just enough to the south but unless a ECM occurs it does seem that your region will at least get some effects...though to be fair its still a little early yet to know whats going to happen in that respect.

It's early if you live in the UK! I'm one of those people that likes to have things down to a three hour wrap up this time of year...leaves more time for deciding where to spend a storm and who's bringing what

[jinftl]

This system has essentially had unwavering model support (both across individual model runs and between different models) for days now.....that is not something we see often. If this doesn't go ahead and develop as has been forecast run after run....models lose significant credibility. That said, I fully expect the models to retain their credibility just fine here.

[brunota2003]

Add in the 1000+ mile margin of error over 10 days out....and the love affair is a bit less exclusive to the big easy!

Hate to say it, its so far out, but the GFS has been in love with New Orleans for a while as well! Just my 2 cents, I used to live there until Katrina, now I'm safe in Colorado.

I think it is time to pull out an oldy, but still VERY relevant, drawing I made 2 years ago:

[Derek Ortt]

ran the ARW for 12Z... also got a destructive hurricane heading to the NE Carib

[tolakram]

This system has essentially had unwavering model support (both across individual model runs and between different models) for days now.....that is not something we see often. If this doesn't go ahead and develop as has been forecast run after run....models lose significant credibility. That said, I fully expect the models to retain their credibility just fine here.

If nothing else it will be interesting to see how well the models have done with this. All of them predicting a strong storm in the islands. I just hope beyond hope that the shear saves the day before it gets there.

[CrazyC83]

Oops, incorrect storm.

[Derek Ortt]

THATS AN EASTERN PACIFIC INVEST!!!!!

[cycloneye]

BT at 1800Z: REVISED TO TD

EP, 90, 2009080918, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1200W, 30, 1007, TD

That is in EPAC.

[cycloneye]

BT at 1800Z: REVISED TO TD

EP, 90, 2009080918, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1200W, 30, 1007, TD

That is in EPAC.

[CrazyC83]

Sorry, I realized that after the fact. Corrected.

[paintplaye]

THATS AN EASTERN PACIFIC INVEST!!!!!

Wow...

[sunnyday]

Every time I'm out of the house for a good while and come back to check on the invest, I see that it is just that--still an invest. I really think this one won't make it, but I have nothing to go on except a feeling. Most others seem to think the invest will become a large storm. Time will tell.

[tolakram]

sunnyday, update your profile and tell us where you are.

[jinftl]

Does 90L have a brother following in its footsteps???

And the entire atlantic-caribbean-gom coastlines just went <gulp> (what el nino season? maybe it does only take 1...or 2)

[Sanibel]

That's what I was going to post Tolakram. That we could learn the idiosyncrasies of the models by seeing what actually occurs and understanding how the models interpreted it. My previous understanding is that the models are interpreting the long range according to the present synoptic and can be way off on what actually occurs 10 days further on.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

No TD yet.

AL, 90, 2009081500, , BEST, 0, 125N, 305W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[sunnyday]

Let's just say Roll Tide as a hint as to where we live.

[jinftl]

Models runs that show landfalls closest to where one lives are the ones given the most credence...thankfully we have the nhc to steer us right.

That's what I was going to post Tolakram. That we could learn the idiosyncrasies of the models by seeing what actually occurs and understanding how the models interpreted it. My previous understanding is that the models are interpreting the long range according to the present synoptic and can be way off on what actually occurs 10 days further on.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Bam Models

Moving west at 16kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 150046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 0000 090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 30.5W 12.7N 33.8W 13.0N 37.5W 12.7N 41.6W
BAMD 12.5N 30.5W 12.7N 33.4W 12.9N 36.7W 13.1N 40.5W
BAMM 12.5N 30.5W 12.7N 33.6W 12.9N 37.1W 12.9N 41.0W
LBAR 12.5N 30.5W 12.6N 34.0W 13.0N 38.1W 13.4N 42.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 40KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 40KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 0000 090818 0000 090819 0000 090820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 45.4W 12.2N 51.0W 14.3N 55.3W 17.9N 61.9W
BAMD 13.4N 44.4W 13.6N 51.7W 13.7N 57.2W 15.5N 61.5W
BAMM 12.9N 44.8W 12.8N 51.1W 14.1N 55.5W 17.3N 60.8W
LBAR 14.2N 47.1W 14.7N 55.4W 14.8N 56.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 83KTS 93KTS 96KTS
DSHP 62KTS 83KTS 93KTS 96KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 30.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 24.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[sunnyday]

OO UTC says no td yet. See what I mean?