ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[ozonepete]

3-panel shear forecast (GFS NAVY CMC from left to right) for tomorrow evening. It's forecast to be even less after that. I'm not sayin' anything, just showing a chart.

[cycloneye]

Best Track continues to plot ex Fred.

AL, 07, 2009091500, , BEST, 0, 191N, 419W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[bahamaswx]

Fred refuses to quit refiring convection. Even got some south and west of the center now. Will be interesting to watch.

[ozonepete]

Fred doesn't look so dead right now. (Neither do those two easterly waves behind him.)

[breeze]

Fred doesn't look so dead right now. (Neither do those two easterly waves behind him.)

I was just over there looking at that...just observing, of course...

[cycloneye]

Convection is now over circulation.The other thing to the right has its own thread at Talking Tropics forum.

[jinftl]

Latest shear map....much less shear around

[BigA]

Tomorrow will be a crucial day regarding whether Fred redevelops or not. Shear will decrease, but dry air will remain a problem. If convection can remain for most of the day, it´s got a chance to expel enough dry air.

[gatorcane]

Shear as analyzed by CIMSS, looks like it drops off starting this time tomorrow and upper-level winds finally improve for the next couple of days. Let's see what it has.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also, the SSTs increase from 27C to 28C overnight tonight, so that may help development. You can see the SSTs by clicking this link and clicking on SSTs box:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

But the dry air may be enough to keep it from developing at all.

[Blown Away]

One problem, lots of dry air being ingested for the next few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: One problem, lots of dry air being ingested for the next few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

noted just as you posted this (I edited the post):)

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: One problem, lots of dry air being ingested for the next few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Remember that those water vapor satellites from NOAA show upper level dry air as well, which can mask what's going on at mid-levels. And it's the mid-level dry air that hurts a Tropical cyclone. The upper level water vapor is not nearly as important. Here's the mid-level water vapor from CIMSS, and it actually doesn't look bad at all and has improved from yesterday - the driest air is now to its south.

[Sanibel]

Is that shear-induced or a refire?


Sometimes conditions finally change. Who knows?

[HURAKAN]

666
ABNT20 KNHC 151148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Change of tune.

[Blown Away]

That pesky convection keeps ex Fred alive.

[jlauderdal]

Change of tune.

our buddies are on full alert

[gatorcane]

Change of tune.

Of course, that is really no surprise from what I see also (as I noted last night). Conditions have become marginally favorable. UL winds are better, SSTs are higher, but dry air is still a problem.

[tolakram]

Looks to be under an upper low. Stranger things have happened but ....

[gatorcane]

GFS really does not like re-generation of Fred at this time. Last several runs completely drop it.

Here is the 06Z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml