ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[CrazyC83]

little pop over the center at 1315...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/287.jpg

That at least keeps it a TD right now...

[HURAKAN]

450
WHXX01 KWBC 131256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090813 1200 090814 0000 090814 1200 090815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 37.2W 14.3N 39.1W 14.6N 41.0W 14.8N 42.9W
BAMD 14.0N 37.2W 14.7N 39.7W 15.5N 42.2W 16.5N 44.8W
BAMM 14.0N 37.2W 14.5N 39.1W 15.0N 41.2W 15.4N 43.4W
LBAR 14.0N 37.2W 14.3N 39.1W 15.0N 41.4W 15.7N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200 090818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 45.6W 16.6N 53.9W 18.7N 63.8W 21.4N 72.2W
BAMD 17.6N 47.6W 20.1N 53.1W 22.5N 58.4W 24.4N 61.7W
BAMM 15.8N 46.3W 16.6N 53.8W 17.8N 62.8W 19.7N 70.4W
LBAR 16.4N 46.8W 18.1N 53.3W 20.3N 60.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 37.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 261DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 33.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing. TD 2 just bought itself six more hours!

[HURAKAN]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022009 08/13/09 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 32 32 33 36 38 38
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 32 32 33 36 38 38
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 22 22 23 22 22 22

SHEAR (KT) 16 21 25 20 17 21 9 17 16 21 18 22 31
SHEAR DIR 96 111 130 147 136 154 182 180 224 215 261 239 270
SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.5

[OuterBanker]

One other thing. I think the role of td2 from the beggining was to be the blocking back for the real McCoy which will be the next invest. It's purpose was to clear the dry air for it, which it is doing.

btw curtadams love your avatar. I was campaign manager for Barry Goldwater in my middle school a few years ago

[tolakram]

Shear is on the decrease again.



I don't think TD2 is dead yet, and it appears the shear forecasts this year ore more inaccurate than usual.

Though things can change in just a few hours.

9 hours ago:

[HURAKAN]

I agree tolakram, that dramatic increase in shear was not forecasted.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think that we'll see the convection make something of a comeback today, but the shear from 90L's anticyclone will be the limiting factor.

http://img504.imageshack.us/i/cimmssheartd02l.gif/

[Stormcenter]

TD# 2 still has to deal with lots of dry air and cooler waters.

Convection increasing. TD 2 just bought itself six more hours!

[KWT]

Yep conditions still aren't great though the waters warm up somewhat once it gets to about 45W, they certainly aren't getting any cooler. Its going to the dry stable air to its north that will be the main issue. Still its carrying on I suppose!

[dixiebreeze]

Sheee's baack.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 131433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.0N 39.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 43.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 46.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

663
WTNT42 KNHC 131433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TOO FEW TO GET A DATA-T
NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. SSMI/DATA AT ABOUT 09Z
SUGGESTED 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT IS USED
AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SSM/I AND AMSR-E PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED ALMOST ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE
FACTORS...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...MAY BE PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM MAINTAINING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OVERALL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
IF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS WOULD
LIKELY MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY THE
BAMM AND BAMS MODELS.

THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND GFDN SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
WITH THE HWRF MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BY 120 HR. BASED ON
THE FORECAST SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL
WAVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.0N 37.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.0N 39.1W 25 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 14.2N 41.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 14.4N 43.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 46.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 52.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 59.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Sanibel]

The Atlantic High must be weak because it is taking TD2 a long time to move west.

[wxman57]

Just a lone thunderstorm near the remnant low. Little inflow now, just a residual swirl. I like the new NHC forecast of 25kts through 120hrs. This one won't be Ana.

[HouTXmetro]

Ummm.... Isn't the GFS and HWRF two of the more trusted models? How are they forecasting such a big difference?

[Frank2]

Here's the latest TCD:

THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND GFDN SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
WITH THE HWRF MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BY 120 HR. BASED ON
THE FORECAST SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL
WAVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS.

It's best to remind ourselves that we are in an El Nino, so similar to 2006 (and other El Nino years) shear is going to be a common issue (thankfully)...

[Dr. Strangelove]

Third time is going to be the charm, or so it appears.

[Sanibel]

This one is no different than any of the other ones that grabbed our attention and were then thoroughly stripped and done in by the prevailing 2009 conditions. However, you can never tell when something might re-fire under the finally-arriving favorability. Still 90L could steal the thunder from whatever recovery may have happened. ?

[David in FL]

mb is rising, its slowing down, What is going on with this things guys? Any exprer opinions? Also with it slowing down is there more of a chance of it laying a positive or negative role in 90L?

[Sanibel]

David, there has been subsidence (sinking dry air from above) in the Atlantic keeping storms from forming. I think this one is under the lingering subsidence that has been there all season. When you add wind shear to that (upper winds blowing sideways over the storm) it whips the top off and keeps the system from developing.