ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[KWT]

The problem is the GFS forms it further north right into the middle of the higher shear and then kills it, we shall see but if it doesn't take that reformation northwards as the GFS based models expect then this one is going to get rather close to the NE Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

As of now, I'm not seeing anything promising on the northern part, near 12 degrees still looking the best. Still moving generally west. Models have been horrendous the past few days on this.

[colbroe]

Just took this from the navy site at 15:45 hrs

94LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-112N-491W. any thoughts.

Looks like the islands will feel some thing from this developing system

[cycloneye]

Plan of the day for 94L

For tuesday at 2 PM EDT the first mission.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 30 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE TASKING NEAR 16.0N 54.0W FOR 01/1800Z.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES NEAR 17.0N 56.0W AT 02/0600Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The Weather Channel dude said a track possible like Bill or Danny. Not Steve Lyons. So now I know I'm going to get hit.

[KWT]

Well the northern end does look a little suspect I have to admit, I can see why some would think a circulation could form up there but its a wait and see case.

Also the moisture field is tilting a little more.

Also 16/54 is a good deal further south then yesterdays recon tasking.

[jinftl]

Is this the start of a trend....be interesting to see if later runs continue to show tracks further west and south. What is interesting is that there are a couple of models which show 94L making its most northern motion from now through 55W, then bending back more west to wnw.

12z models:




Prior run (6z):

[KWT]

What is really interesting is despite the 12z GFS sending this system way upto 20N before 55W, it still manages to get the weak reflection not that far away from the Bahamas:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[cycloneye]

First mission will be on tuesday afternoon at 2 PM EDT.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NTIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 30 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE TASKING NEAR 16.0N 54.0W FOR 01/1800Z.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES NEAR 17.0N 56.0W AT 02/0600Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS

[Shewtinstar]

The Weather Channel dude said a track possible like Bill or Danny. Not Steve Lyons. So now I know I'm going to get hit.

Florida could use some excitement. If you don't want it down in Hollywood, send it on up to Jacksonville, I'll take it.

[jinftl]

Did they sound the all clear for the Gulf of Georgia?
(infamous on-air flub by TWC met.....she meant Gulf of Mexico...i think)

The Weather Channel dude said a track possible like Bill or Danny. Not Steve Lyons. So now I know I'm going to get hit.

[hurricanetrack]

So they think it will only be at 54W by September 1? Ok, guess it is forecast to slow down some then. That would be 480 miles in 48 hours or 10 mph, right?

[colbroe]

Further update from the Navy site
1615 hrs
94LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-112N-491W.

[otowntiger]

If you took this image and pasted it into the Gulf, some people would be freaking out on this board!!!

I don't think that's true at all. If this thing were bearing down on me no matter where I was at I wouldn't be too concerned. Just look at it. Its been that way for days. Its a mess, now, it was a mess yesterday and it will probably stay a mess or even less in the future. It's pretty much just a swirl of clouds with little or no convection.

[hurricanetrack]

KWT: I think that you are on to something there. Forget the likely poor init of the developing cyclone - look at what MIGHT be in the pattern 120, 144, 168+ hours out. Look for clues not absolutes. You might have found a nice clue.

[Emmett_Brown]

If you look at the loop above, seems to have already slowed to about 10 mph to the naked eye. Not moving very quickly right now

[Derek Ortt]

this is supposed to slow significantly. 54W in 48 hours is about right. However, I'd suspect it'll be a bit farther north, UNLESS this still has not developed by then

it is also a possible fix. If this looks to be moving well north of the islands, then maybe the flights will not occur.

[gatorcane]

look for the low to relocated farther north. I am still counting on that happening

and it it doesn't?

[Derek Ortt]

I think we'll still be looking at a weak system if this does not relocate. We'll have competing systems

[deltadog03]