ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Aric Dunn]

See thats all it needed to do was get away from 90L and move a little faster..

[RL3AO]

Looking good. Advisories might be re-initiated today.

[psyclone]

wow this thing looks great. i wouldn't be surprised if we have td 2 AND 3 at 5pm.

[tolakram]

Convection fading, outflow boundaries all over the place. We'll see.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Aric Dunn]

here is a 1km visible loop with shear overlay. Just want to point out that shear is low right now and this system has a decent environment for the next at least 12 to 24 hours to strengthen.

[Cookie]

this system was dead and buried yet its still come back amazing

[srainhoutx]

822
WHXX01 KWBC 141836
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWO (AL022009) 20090814 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 0600 090815 1800 090816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 43.2W 15.2N 45.2W 16.1N 48.0W 17.4N 51.8W
BAMD 14.7N 43.2W 15.4N 45.5W 16.5N 48.2W 17.6N 51.3W
BAMM 14.7N 43.2W 15.1N 45.3W 15.9N 48.0W 16.6N 51.2W
LBAR 14.7N 43.2W 15.1N 45.7W 15.8N 48.8W 16.8N 52.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090816 1800 090817 1800 090818 1800 090819 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 56.2W 23.3N 64.9W 27.0N 70.9W 29.4N 73.4W
BAMD 18.8N 54.7W 21.1N 61.9W 23.7N 68.0W 24.9N 71.5W
BAMM 17.5N 55.1W 19.5N 63.6W 21.9N 71.3W 24.0N 77.0W
LBAR 17.8N 55.9W 20.3N 63.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 51KTS 65KTS 71KTS 76KTS

[Scorpion]

don't think it could pull an andrew and pop uotta nowhere at the last min. do ya??????????

SHIPS is trending that way..

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting development. I cant help but think that once 90L gets cranking, however, that the subsidence around 90L will crush this small vortex. It is tenacious, but if 90L does what we think it is going to do, ex TD02 should be obliterated once again.

[Aric Dunn]

The latest Euro brings Td2 across florida as a TS ...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks to me like TD2 could arguably be called a TD once again...

[gatorcane]

The latest Euro brings Td2 across florida as a TS ...

Yes it does. Latest HPC snippet:

THE TROPICS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE.
EARLIER COORDINATION WITH THE TPC RESULTED IN DEPICTING THE
REMNANTS OF T.D NUMBER TWO REACHING FLORIDA DAYS 6/7...WHICH IS
FAIRLY CLOSE IN POSITION AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think it has been one all day based on QS and sat presentation but that's not enough data.

[KWT]

It certainly has got to be close to being ure-upgraded, I'd imagine this will be a code red sooner rather then later at the very least. I think the idea the Euro is coming up with probably won't be all that far away from what happens in the end.

[HouTXmetro]

It certainly has got to be close to being ure-upgraded, I'd imagine this will be a code red sooner rather then later at the very least. I think the idea the Euro is coming up with probably won't be all that far away from what happens in the end.

Convection is deepening but it looks like the circulation is loosening up. Perhaps it's just the appearance because of losing the Visual satelite.

[RL3AO]

Convection still off to the west side of the center, but its looking good.

[Aric Dunn]

its interesting how convection has maintained all day..

[senorpepr]

Location: 439 miles (706 km) to the ESE (118°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.


998
UZNT13 KWBC 142116
XXAA 64212 99101 70539 04203 99011 27642 ///// 00097 26636 09009
92782 21221 09011 85511 16819 15502 70148 08827 18503 50586 05540
07504 40758 15787 07519 30968 30369 06013 25095 41164 09018 20242
545// 12509 88999 77999
31313 09608 82052
61616 NOAA9 WXWXA TD2 OB 01
62626 SPL 1006N05395W 2106 LST WND 014 MBL WND 09010 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 08507 009167 WL150 08509 086 REL 1006N05392W 205238 SPG 100
6N05395W 210633 =
XXBB 64218 99101 70539 04203 00011 27642 11946 22205 22911 20636
33850 16819 44746 12250 55664 07037 66581 00108 77513 03950 88457
10344 99434 13111 11427 13731 22416 14175 33411 14589 44286 33171
55219 49361 66167 62340
21212 00011 ///// 11009 08008 22921 09011 33850 15502 44436 35003
55417 07011 66395 07521 77347 08516 88319 06017 99308 07013 11285
04011 22267 07513 33205 13011
31313 09608 82052
61616 NOAA9 WXWXA TD2 OB 01
62626 SPL 1006N05395W 2106 LST WND 014 MBL WND 09010 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 08507 009167 WL150 08509 086 REL 1006N05392W 205238 SPG 100
6N05395W 210633 =

[Brent]

***IF*** this convection persists overnight, I would not be surprised if THIS became Ana tomorrow like it was originally supposed to be.

Could be a TD again at 11.