ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Wx_Warrior]

fizzles but the fantasy trains keep rolling.....

[JPmia]

Ok, still awake. 00Z GFS takes it right across southern Florida 3 days behind what will be Ana then toward the mid Gulf Coast. So south Florida could be hit by a TS, maybe a hurricane then 3 days later get hit by a big and powerful hurricane. Oh, and the GFS has one a few days behind 90L, too, heading in the same direction.

What will you be advising Plantation for estimated time of arrivals/effects?

[wxman57]

Ok, still awake. 00Z GFS takes it right across southern Florida 3 days behind what will be Ana then toward the mid Gulf Coast. So south Florida could be hit by a TS, maybe a hurricane then 3 days later get hit by a big and powerful hurricane. Oh, and the GFS has one a few days behind 90L, too, heading in the same direction.

What will you be advising Plantation for estimated time of arrivals/effects?

From 90L? That wouldn't be until Saturday night, the 22nd (my birthday).

[cpdaman]

oh good i'm moving to boston the 23'rd from Boca raton, FL........perhaps i'll go out with a bang......hopefully not

[cycloneye]

00 UTC GFDL

A north shift.

WHXX04 KWBC 150519
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.4 30.5 270./15.9
6 12.3 32.0 265./14.8
12 12.0 33.4 260./14.6
18 11.5 34.2 235./ 9.2
24 11.7 36.8 274./25.3
30 11.4 38.4 260./15.8
36 11.1 39.5 255./11.8
42 11.5 40.2 303./ 7.8
48 11.8 41.8 279./15.8
54 12.4 42.9 300./12.5
60 12.7 44.4 280./14.8
66 13.6 45.9 301./17.5
72 14.2 47.8 287./19.5
78 14.5 49.5 281./16.5
84 14.9 51.0 285./14.6
90 15.4 52.4 290./14.9
96 16.2 54.1 294./17.7
102 16.6 55.7 285./16.0
108 17.3 57.2 293./16.0
114 18.0 58.8 295./16.6
120 18.5 60.0 293./12.4
126 19.2 61.2 300./13.7

[bigGbear]

Cycloneye,

Haven't plotted the GFDL but that sounds like it might be better for PR. I hope so.

[AtlanticWind]

00z CMC recurves 90L

[Derek Ortt]

What in the world is GFDL slowing this down at times?

Canadian also doesn't have this crossing 40W until MONDAY

NEXT MODELS PLEASE!

[cycloneye]

Why those models slow it?

[Derek Ortt]

Why those models slow it?

same reason they slowed Dean? The always under do the ridging. Happens nearly every single time

[cycloneye]

595
ABNT20 KNHC 150535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
REGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC always been a joke...I dont care what improvements it made.

[shah8]

For some perspective, 90l traveled ~1.5 longitude over the past 8hrs. If it stayed the same speed, it should be well past 41W by Monday.

[Derek Ortt]

chuck the GFDL. Just look at the initial vortex. Its a mile high pile of horse you know what!

[Bocadude85]

Looks like we will have TD 3 by 5am

[Brent]

Definitely by 11am but I think 5am is likely.

Looked really good before the eclipse.

[Ivanhater]

chuck the GFDL. Just look at the initial vortex. Its a mile high pile of horse you know what!

Well since it's Friday night and I've had a couple drinks. I'll probably stay up for the 06z runs to see if they handle the speed better,

[Nederlander]

Yea gfdl is smoking crack.. I feel the trend is still going to be a more westerly track.. This would be bad if the keys got a direct hit.. My unprofessional amateur opinion is a northern caribbean hit followed by a trek into the GOM.. If that pans out I just hope its torn up too bad to reorganize in the gulf..

[Sambucol]

My unprofessional amateur opinion is a northern caribbean hit followed by a trek into the GOM.. If that pans out I just hope its torn up too bad to reorganize in the gulf..

I imagine it would reorganize in the GOM. The water temps are very warm.

[Sanibel]

00z GFDL weakens the ridge and pulls its center east leaving a big recurve that clears the Antilles and probably doesn't even touch CONUS.