ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Derek Ortt]

well... we just had the rapid collapse of the convection. With the divergence, I fully expect this will be an open wave by morning.

Was very predictable with the dry air around. Fairly straight forward parcel theory

[Aric Dunn]

well... we just had the rapid collapse of the convection. With the divergence, I fully expect this will be an open wave by morning.

Was very predictable with the dry air around. Fairly straight forward parcel theory

is that the 3rd time you have called for a open wave.. or fourth.. ??

[Sanibel]

See if SST's give it a kick. From 50W or so at that latitude they increase enough to affect it.


Did we have a little MJO pulse today in those mild bursts?

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF runs a mostly weak (though intensifying after 96h) system into the Central Bahamas, while the 00Z GFDL killed the circulation after 42h.

[wxman57]

See if SST's give it a kick. From 50W or so at that latitude they increase enough to affect it.

Did we have a little MJO pulse today in those mild bursts?

What we had is an upper-level low which lies nearly directly over the center helping to enhance convection at times. But the close proximity of the surface center to the upper-level low center results in moderate wind shear that keeps the squalls northeast of the surface center.

Surface center is still way down at 20N and the squalls up around 22N - well away from the center.

[perk]

well... we just had the rapid collapse of the convection. With the divergence, I fully expect this will be an open wave by morning.

Was very predictable with the dry air around. Fairly straight forward parcel theory

is that the 3rd time you have called for a open wave.. or fourth.. ??

Third,fourth it's getting hard to keep track,but he's been wrong so far.

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ARE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[leanne_uk]

well it seems to have finally happened and its almost certainly bye bye fred

[Derek Ortt]

well... we just had the rapid collapse of the convection. With the divergence, I fully expect this will be an open wave by morning.

Was very predictable with the dry air around. Fairly straight forward parcel theory

is that the 3rd time you have called for a open wave.. or fourth.. ??

Third,fourth it's getting hard to keep track,but he's been wrong so far.

actually, I have not been wrong at all. I was forecasting a wave about 48 hours ago. Well... it is about 48 hours and the circ is breaking down.

[tolakram]

No surface circulation.

As mentioned in Jeff Masters blog entry this morning: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1321

[Sanibel]

Just another convection bluff for development like many others in 2009.

[wxman57]

Take a look at the pressure field around Fred, too. Pretty high pressure across the area. It appears that was Fred's last dying gasp last night. Its remains will continue westward to Florida, possibly, but only as enhanced showers.

It helps if I post the image:

[Sanibel]

We had a little rain surge here lately so maybe there's enough for another storm out there before season's end. Still beneath normal here. Whether that relates to tropical favorability I don't know.

[Aric Dunn]

hehe... well apparently.. we have all forgotten previous lesson already learned... Thats not too write off systems to quickly..

22.32°N 53.19° W is about where the center is which is supported well with microwave data from earlier and with last nights microwave images. The forward motion of the system is a likely cause of the weaker looking circ. but it is still quite present and only time will tell if it maintains. convection is firing again near the center which means its still hanging on.

[KUEFC]

Again i am only just starting to get into the whole scientific make up of tropical systems, but am i right in thinking the increased bursts in covection are down to it being under a ULL?, and sorry but i just checked the latest sat image, the the covection isnt really all that great from what i can see?,

i guess some people just really want this thing to strengthen again.

[Steve H.]

Yeah and I don't know if that is center reformation or if it was cut off in the previously posted quikscat image. I don't like or need to get into those details - which are minute to minute observations. I think this area still needs to be watched over the next few days still. I sense overall that we may see a burst of activity on tap for the next few weeks. Gut sense only...nothing to really back it up, but some of the strong shear is lessening a bit across the basin.

[Aric Dunn]

Again i am only just starting to get into the whole scientific make up of tropical systems, but am i right in thinking the increased bursts in covection are down to it being under a ULL?, and sorry but i just checked the latest sat image, the the covection isnt really all that great from what i can see?,

i guess some people just really want this thing to strengthen again.

well its actually just north of the ull and yes the enhancement is in part due to the proximity.. but either way the circ is still present and cannot be ignored..

[KUEFC]

But why is it that some people just go off their opinion rather than computer models or pro mets forcasts? am i right in thinking there are only 1 or 2 models even showing any signs of this coming back together?.

[Derek Ortt]

often in el nino years, there are only about 1-3 more storms after this point of the season.

2006 had only 1. 1993 had only 1. Both of those systems formed in September (in 1993, it formed on Sep 18)

This season may be close to finished based upon historical precedent.