ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[FireBird]

This thing is giving me flashbacks of 94L last year when there were numerous uncertainties, and there was development only after it had passed through the Lesser Antilles and made its way to the open Sea.
Looks like another waiting game. One thing's for sure - no time to get complacent.

[hurricanetrack]

There is enough dry air around to keep this from coming together quickly. It has a large envelope so it seems to be pulling in some of the drier air and that is what appears to be capping the convection for now. This certainly isn't going to just go away so on it tracks- generally westward with slow development. If this is near or south of 15N by 55W then it will raise more than a few eyebrows out there.

[KWT]

The code red blob there cycloneye seems to reflect some uncertainty as to what bit will develop,as its tilted to the NE it appears.

Still despite a waning of convection structure still looks decent enough, probably will be a TD once we get another long lasting burst like this morning.

[jinftl]

LOL...4 named storms in August (including one Cat 4) and folks are still disappointed...while folks say they would find a long trakker fish a 'dream', i kinda suspect that isn't 'enough'. Comparing this season to the busy, 'ripe' 1992 season isn't as ludicrous as saying this season is as slow as 1995....but it's close.

It is August 30th....not October 30th....we are late in the 2nd quarter if the season was a football game and in the 4th inning if the season was a baseball game. We have had almost continuous systems to cover for the last 2 weeks....remember a month ago? 2 months ago?

Now back to the subject at hand...

Yes I know anything is possible but this is not 1992 or 2005. The conditions have not
been ripe for development for most part in 2009. The clock is ticking.

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Stormcenter...Andrew once probably into an open wave, Katrina came from a pitiful TD10...most systems have periods where we don't look great but that doesn't mean they can't be watched!

[HURRICANELONNY]

If I was a betting man. Who doesn't know my ass from a hole in the head about weather. I would say closer to the U.S. then Bill. Probably hitting the Carolinas. Mostly because as of now. No Global models are showing a huge trof. Just not a huge High.

[jinftl]

Agree....given that 94L is about 3 deg further south than Bill was at this longitude, even the same angles of heading as Bill would result in a track closer to the islands and possibly u.s.

If I was a betting man. Who doesn't know my ass from a hole in the head about weather. I would say closer to the U.S. then Bill. Probably hitting the Carolinas. Mostly because as of now. No Global models are showing a huge trof. Just not a huge High.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak

I dont see the recurve yet.

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


Who said recurve?

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W

[Ivanhater]

Compared to last estimate..west

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N47W TO 17N45W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N46W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING
WEST AT 15 KT AS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WHICH
STILL APPEARED TO BE ELONGATED ALONG A SSW TO NNE AXIS. BUOY
41041 REPORTED A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SSE AT 1300 UTC
WHICH SUPPORTED THE EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTHWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS CONFINED
TO THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
60 NM OF A LINE THROUGH 10N49W-13N49W-15N47W-17N45W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN THE
AREA FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. THE CHANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS HAS
BEEN ELEVATED TO HIGH.

[KWT]

Yep but of course as has been said before these are only estimates on the center, if the center does end up forming a good deal further north (I'd guess about 13.5) then obviously the other models idea comes into play.

Still for now it doesn't seem to be picking up much latitude still and its getting closer to 50W as time goes by, granted at a slower pace now.

[Gustywind]

SSD Dvorak

I dont see the recurve yet.

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


Who said recurve?

30/1745 UTC 11.9N 47.5W
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W

drifting west

[KWT]

Certainly not moving fast Gustywind, the models did suggest this should slow down quite a bit today which seem to have happened.

Anyway will be interesting to see what the model suite shows all in all.

Probably need another decent burst for the NHC to think of upgrading this one I suspect unless Qscat can totally prove its a TD on its own.

[Ivanhater]

Certainly has great structure

[jinftl]

Estimated position estimates over the last day

Current = 11.9N 47.5W
12z 8/30 = 11.8N 46.3W
6z 8/30 = 11.2N 45.1W
0z 8/30 = 10.7N 43.4W
18z 8/29 = 10.6N 42.0W


That's a gain of 1.3 deg of latitude and 5.5 deg of longitude in the last 24 hours.

If you extrapolate that movement out (of course this could change over time), you would get to the following points:

13.2N 53.0W
14.5N 58.5W
15.8N 64.0W
17.1N 69.5W

[HURRICANELONNY]

According to the extended Miami Forecast Discussion. Florida is safe from soon to be Erika.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale

[KWT]

Yeah got to admit the structure is pretty decent, indeed its much improved from this time yesterday I think, however it still needs some convection to really get going and have the final push.

[Gustywind]

Certainly not moving fast Gustywind, the models did suggest this should slow down quite a bit today which seem to have happened.

Anyway will be interesting to see what the model suite shows all in all.

Probably need another decent burst for the NHC to think of upgrading this one I suspect unless Qscat can totally prove its a TD on its own.

Yeah KWT for sure, let's hope of a recurve (should it happens first looks like a ghost recurve with my untrained eyes) that does not want to happen run after runs...

[Aric Dunn]

Estimated position estimates over the last day

Current = 11.9N 47.5W
12z 8/30 = 11.8N 46.3W
6z 8/30 = 11.2N 45.1W
0z 8/30 = 10.7N 43.4W
18z 8/29 = 10.6N 42.0W


That's a gain of 1.3 deg of latitude and 5.5 deg of longitude in the last 24 hours.

If you extrapolate that movement out (of course this could change over time), you would get to the following points:

13.2N 53.0W
14.5N 58.5W
15.8N 64.0W
17.1N 69.5W

well actually thats not to far off from the euro which brings it into DR

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46WEST WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 47 W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
DEVELOP...IT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
&&

72/10

[Steve H.]

Well, timing will be important. Weakness in the east will be followed by building heights in the longer range.

DURING THIS TIME...
A SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE EDGE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP
A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE. WHAT WILL RESULT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD
SHOULD BE RIDGING TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS. THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE REACHING
THE MID MS VLY AND BASICALLY BECOME STATIONARY