ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[artist]

according to that quikscat above what is that at around 13/31 ?

[Blown Away]

Very broad circulation with a decent cyclonic spin and small areas of convection continue to build. The air around the circulation is starting to moisten. Not sure if the circulation can spin back down to the surface but it looks like it is trying to tighten up.

[Aric Dunn]

Very broad circulation with a decent cyclonic spin and small areas of convection continue to build. The air around the circulation is starting to moisten. Not sure if the circulation can spin back down to the surface but it looks like it is trying to tighten up.

dont confuse the ull with the surface low which is still there..

[Aric Dunn]

again circ is the yellow circle and the red circle is upper level low.

[Blown Away]

Ok, if that is the case this system does not look that good, IMO.

[hurricanetrack]

Let's look at it from a different perspective. What if it were never a cat-3 hurricane and was a tropical wave all this time moving generally west. Considering the flare ups and downs and its current state, would people be thinking this would develop once it got past about 70W or would most say it is not happening since none of the globals really show it? So, forget its past, what about it as a tropical wave with a weak surface low? Would it pique your interest?

[Aric Dunn]

Let's look at it from a different perspective. What if it were never a cat-3 hurricane and was a tropical wave all this time moving generally west. Considering the flare ups and downs and its current state, would people be thinking this would develop once it got past about 70W or would most say it is not happening since none of the globals really show it? So, forget its past, what about it as a tropical wave with a weak surface low? Would it pique your interest?

yes of course it would ..

[Blown Away]

Let's look at it from a different perspective. What if it were never a cat-3 hurricane and was a tropical wave all this time moving generally west. Considering the flare ups and downs and its current state, would people be thinking this would develop once it got past about 70W or would most say it is not happening since none of the globals really show it? So, forget its past, what about it as a tropical wave with a weak surface low? Would it pique your interest?

Yep, I would look at this area and think there was potential. Convection, cyclonic rotation, marginal shear, and on/off model support. Being former Fred has nothing to do w/ me watching.

[Sanibel]

Caribbean: It would be cool if it took a ULL to drill down and form this year. Since nothing else will.



As to Fred storms never form with a ULL right into them like that let alone in a bad year like this one.

[Blown Away]

Maybe trying to tighten up near 23N/54W??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

Let's look at it from a different perspective. What if it were never a cat-3 hurricane and was a tropical wave all this time moving generally west. Considering the flare ups and downs and its current state, would people be thinking this would develop once it got past about 70W or would most say it is not happening since none of the globals really show it? So, forget its past, what about it as a tropical wave with a weak surface low? Would it pique your interest?

Yes, I always say that these systems don't remember they were once powerful hurricanes. But in this case, you have to take note of the trend with time. And the trend is toward weakening, regardless of whether or not it used to be a hurricane. Circulation is weakening/dissipating, not tightening up. Convection is only there because of the upper low overhead. At least moderate shear in its path.

So we'd have to look at it today and say that all data would suggest a low probability of development. But with all systems like this moderate tropical wave, you cannot absolutely 100% say there's no chance of it finding a small pocket of decreased shear and regaining TS strength. So we keep one eye trained on it until it's completely gone.

[Blown Away]

[somethingfunny]

One ULL just south of Fred, and a second ULL just south of the Dominican Republic. Is it normal to have this many upper level lows spinning around the tropical Atlantic?

[artist]

what is that at 16/70 in the picture above?

[somethingfunny]

what is that at 16/70 in the picture above?

ULL interacting with a wave, similar to what ex-Fred is doing.

[breeze]

Accuweather's thinking...

[brunota2003]

ATM, I'd be more worried about that ULL developing than Fred.


Not even a trough, let alone a well defined one (or for that matter, a closed LLC) at the surface according to QS:



It had it's chance, but conditions are currently just too hostile for it.

[cycloneye]

Unless there is a miracle allowing Ex Fred to redevelop,the time for this thread to remain at Active Storms forum is comming sooner rather than later.The archieves forum awaits Ex Fred with open arms

[Aric Dunn]

it is looking pretty meager this evening.. still cant write it off ... just got to keep watching and waiting till its inland or out to sea..

[jaxfladude]

Just like the 'Freddy Krueger' movie series, this thing just will not die for good. I guess he's looking for an "Elm Street".