Australia: CHARLOTTE - TC: Discussion - Landfall

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Australia: CHARLOTTE - TC: Discussion - Landfall

#1 Postby wyq614 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:09 am

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There are no tropical lows in or near Northern Territory waters. The monsoon trough currently lies well inland across the Victoria River and Barkly Districts with a low [1003 hPa] over the southern Barkly District. The monsoon trough and low are expected to move north to be near the waters of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria by Friday.

Note that ECWMF has kept developing something in the Gulf of Carpentaria for days.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria - Invest 97P

#2 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:16 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 8 January 2009

A TROPICAL LOW 1002 hPa is situated in the southeastern GULF OF CARPENTARIA near
Mornington Island. At 11am it was near latitude 17S, longitude 139E, slow
moving.

The LOW is expected to remain slow moving over water for the next few days, and
may develop into a tropical cyclone later in the weekend. The likelihood of a
tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three days is:

Friday: low,
Saturday: moderate,
Sunday: high.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria - Invest 97P

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 09, 2009 5:20 am

Image

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:52pm on Friday the 9th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld
Border to Thursday Island.

At 4:00 pm EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria with a centre near Mornington Island at approximately 16.9 degrees
South 139.5 degrees East. This is 285 kilometres west southwest of Kowanyama and
95 kilometres north of Burketown. The low is currently slow moving.

The low is expected to remain over the Gulf waters during the next few days
while slowly deepening. It may develop into a Tropical Cyclone late on Sunday.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours,
however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated
with a strengthening of the monsoon.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.9 degrees South 139.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 55 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

People between the Qld/NT border and Thursday Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday 09 January.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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#4 Postby Crostorm » Fri Jan 09, 2009 12:58 pm

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#5 Postby Crostorm » Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:01 pm

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:56pm on Friday the 9th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld
Border to Thursday Island.

At 10:00 pm EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria at approximately 16.0 degrees South 136.7 degrees East, which is 26
kilometres southeast of Port McArthur and 275 kilometres west northwest of
Mornington Island. The low is currently slow moving.

The low is expected to slowly move over Gulf waters on Saturday and remain over
water for the next few days while slowly deepening. It may develop into a
Tropical Cyclone late on Sunday.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours,
however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated
with a strengthening of the monsoon. The strengthening monsoon is already
producing abnormally high tides about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A
separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these high tides.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 136.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 45 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

People between the Qld/NT border and Thursday Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Saturday 10 January.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria - Invest 97P

#6 Postby Crostorm » Fri Jan 09, 2009 3:14 pm

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:54am on Saturday the 10th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld
Border to Thursday Island.

At 4:00 am EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southwestern Gulf of
Carpentaria with a centre near 15.3 degrees South 136.8 degrees East. This is 65
kilometres north northeast of Port McArthur and 295 kilometres west northwest of
Mornington Is. The low has moved north at 13 km/h during the past 6 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters for the next few days
while slowly deepening. It may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Sunday.

Gales are not expected to develop about the Gulf coast during the next 24 hours,
however gales may develop later, particularly north of the system associated
with a strengthening of the monsoon. The strengthening monsoon is already
producing abnormally high tides about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A
separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these high tides.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.3 degrees South 136.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... N at 13 km/h
.Wind gusts near centre... 45 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

People between the Qld/NT border and Thursday Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Saturday 10 January.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 10, 2009 7:08 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:54pm on Saturday the 10th of January 2009

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Port
McArthur to Thursday Island.

At 4:00 pm EST a broad area of low pressure lay across the southwestern Gulf of
Carpentaria with a centre near 14.8 degrees South 137.0 degrees East. This is
120 kilometres north northeast of Port McArthur and 315 kilometres northwest of
Mornington Island. The low has moved north at 13 km/h during the past 6 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters for the next few days
while slowly deepening. It may develop into a weak Tropical Cyclone on Sunday
evening.

Gales associated with the Monsoon flow over the northern Gulf are expected to
develop overnight and into Sunday, however gales associated near the low may
develop later on Sunday.

The strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides about the
southern and eastern Gulf coasts. Potentially damaging wind gusts to 100km/hr
are expected to develop overnight and through Sunday north of Kowanyama.

A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for locally damaging winds and
abnormally high tides.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 137.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 65 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... N at 13 km/h
.Wind gusts near centre... 45 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

People between the Qld/NT border and Thursday Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Saturday 10 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly
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#8 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 10, 2009 5:27 pm

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:03am on Sunday the 11th of January 2009

A Cyclone WARNING has been issued for coastal and island communities from Weipa
to NT/QLD Border. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island
communities from the Torres Strait Islands to Weipa, and NT/QLD Border and Port
McArthur.

At 7:00 am EST [6:30 am CST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 55 kilometres
north northwest of Mornington Island and
315 kilometres west southwest of Pormpuraaw. The Low has moved southeast at 10
km/hr during the past 3 hours.

The low is expected to drift slowly east over Gulf waters while deepening. It is
likely to develop into a weak Tropical Cyclone this afternoon.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the
north of the system, and 110 kilometres to its south. These GALES may affect
coastal areas between Weipa and the NT/QLD border during the next 24 hours.

Coastal residents between Weipa and the NT/QLD border are specifically warned of
the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and
flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow
instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

Also, gales associated with the strengthening monsoon flow over the northern
Gulf are expected about the northern Cape York Peninsula coast later today. The
strengthening monsoon is already producing abnormally high tides and squally
monsoon showers about the southern and eastern Gulf coasts. A separate Severe
Weather Warning has been issued for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally
high tides.

Details of Tropical Low at 7:00 am EST [6:30 am CST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 139.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... southeast at 10 km/hr during the past 3 hours.
.Wind gusts near centre... 65 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

People between Weipa and NT/Qld border should take precautions and listen to the
next advice at 11.00am. If you are unsure about precautions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

People between Port McArthur and Thursday Island should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about
the actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Sunday 11 January [10:30 am CST
Sunday 11 January].


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria - Invest 97P

#9 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 10, 2009 5:53 pm

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#10 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 10, 2009 7:56 pm

We have a Tropical Cyclone Charlotte


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 9:58am on Sunday the 11th of January 2009

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Aurukun to
the NT/QLD Border. A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities
from Weipa to Aurukun. The Cyclone Watch between the Torres Strait Islands and
Weipa, and between the NT/QLD Border and Port McArthur has been CANCELLED.

At 9:00 am EST [8:30 am CST] TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE was estimated to be 60
kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 275 kilometres west
southwest of Pormpuraaw. The Cyclone has moved southeast at 15 km/hr during the
past 5 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving eastwards over
southeast Gulf waters while strengthening.

GALES are expected to extend at least 220 kilometres from the centre on the
north of the system, and up to 150 kilometres to its south. These GALES may
affect coastal areas between Aurukun and the NT/QLD border during the next 24
hours.

Coastal residents between Aurukun and the NT/QLD border are specifically warned
of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely
to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves
and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions
regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding is expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Also, gales associated with the strengthening MONSOON flow over the northern
Gulf already producing abnormally high tides and squally monsoon showers over
western Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued
for these damaging wind gusts and abnormally high tides.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte at 9:00 am EST [8:30 am CST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 139.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... southeast at 15 km/hr during the past 5 hours.
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

People between Aurukun to NT/QLD border should take precautions and listen to
the next advice at 2.00pm. If you are unsure about precautions to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

People between Weipa and Aurukun should consider what action they will need to
take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to be
taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Sunday 11 January [1:30 pm CST
Sunday 11 January].
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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria - Invest 97P

#11 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 10, 2009 7:58 pm

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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria - Invest 97P

#12 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 10, 2009 8:00 pm

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Re: Gulf of Carpentaria - Invest 97P

#13 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:35 pm

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#14 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 11, 2009 3:35 am

AXAU21 ABRF 110701
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 11/01/2009
Name: Charlotte
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 139.8E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [130 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 75 nm [140 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 11/1800: 16.2S 140.9E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 985
+24: 12/0600: 16.7S 142.6E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 995
+36: 12/1800: 17.0S 143.6E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 997
+48: 13/0600: 17.4S 143.4E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 997
+60: 13/1800: 17.4S 142.4E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 997
+72: 14/0600: 17.8S 141.1E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 997
REMARKS:
This system is under the influence of strong upper level divergence associated
with an upper trough over southeast Australia.

Deepening is occurring curved band wrap 0.7 giving DT of 3.0. PAT suggests T3.5
but given constraints have stayed with T3.0.

Conditions are favourable for further developments until landfall.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 11, 2009 5:21 am

WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.2S 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.8S 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 140.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (CHARLOTTE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND
SHOW TC 07P HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
WELL-DEFINED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
102049Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH 40-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON NEARBY SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATION AND AN 110004Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 110051Z JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 110100 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
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#16 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 11, 2009 5:23 am

WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.2S 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.8S 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 140.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (CHARLOTTE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND
SHOW TC 07P HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
WELL-DEFINED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
102049Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH 40-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON NEARBY SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATION AND AN 110004Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 110051Z JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 110100 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:10 am

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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 11, 2009 1:06 pm

The eagle is about to land.

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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Mornington West to Cape Keerweer
are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting
the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:48am on Monday the 12th of January 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Mornington West to Cape Keerweer extending to adjacent inland areas.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Cape Keerweer to Aurukun.

At 1:00 am EST TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE was estimated to be 120 kilometres
southwest of Kowanyama and 190 kilometres east northeast of Mornington Island,
moving east at 11 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE is expected to continue moving east over southeast
Gulf waters while strengthening. It is expected to cross the western Cape York
Peninsula coast between Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth later this
morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are expected to develop between
Kowanyama and the Gilbert River Mouth as the cyclone centre crosses the coast
later this morning.

GALES will affect coastal areas between Cape Keerweer and Mornington Island
during the next 6 to 12 hours.

As the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast, a storm tide will be generated
between Cape Keerweer and the Gilbert River Mouth. The normal tide will be near
low at crossing time and water levels are not expected to exceed HAT by any
significant amount, however large waves may produce minor flooding along the
foreshore.

Gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the northern Gulf will
continue to produce tidal levels above HAT and squally monsoon showers during
the next few days. A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for these
damaging wind gusts and tides.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 140.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals

People between Mornington Island and Cape Keerweer should remain inside until
the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice at 5am. Heed the advice and
follow the instructions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People between Aurukun and Cape Keer Weer should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday 12 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

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Re: G. of Carpentaria: CHARLOTTE - Tropical Cyclone: Discussion

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 11, 2009 3:44 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:56am on Monday the 12th of January 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Burketown to Cape Keer-Weer extending to adjacent inland areas.

At 4:00 am EST TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE was estimated to be 23 kilometres
south southwest of Gilbert River Mouth and 305 kilometres northwest of
Georgetown, moving east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARLOTTE has now crossed the coast near the Gilbert River
Mouth, and is expected to continue moving east southeast over land while
weakening.


GALES with DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 km/h may be experienced between Cape
Keer-Weer and Burketown, and to also extend about 200 kilometres inland.

Even though the cyclone has now crossed the coast, strong monsoon winds and
damaging waves are still expected to continue producing abnormally high tides
later today.

Very heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in the southeast Gulf Country.

North of Cape Keer-Weer and out of the Cyclone Warning area, a Severe Weather
Warning is current for gales associated with the active MONSOON flow over the
northern Gulf, which will continue to produce abnormally high tides and squally
monsoon showers.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Charlotte at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.8 degrees South 141.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals

People between Mornington Island and Cape Keerweer should remain inside until
the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice at 8am. Follow the advice
and instructions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Monday 12 January.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:19 pm

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (CHARLOTTE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3S 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 141.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (CHARLOTTE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ANIMATED
WEATHER RADAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SHOW TC 07P MAINTAINING WELL-
DEFINED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 111605Z
AMSR-E PASS DEPICTS A WELL FORMED CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING MAKING LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON NEARBY SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
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