SIO: DONGO - Extratropical: Discussion

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

http://www.mtotec.com/

[Crostorm]

[KWT]

Not a bad looking system, though convection isn't really all that deep its got a good looking shape.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 910
WTIO30 FMEE 081833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/5/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5
2.A POSITION 2009/01/08 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 70.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/09 06 UTC: 15.3S/68.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/01/09 18 UTC: 16.1S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/01/10 06 UTC: 16.8S/66.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/01/10 18 UTC: 18.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/01/11 06 UTC: 19.8S/66.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 22.4S/67.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION STILL
REMAINS
VERY FLUCTUATING AND BARELY CONSOLIDATES CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED
CENTRE.
ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT,
A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL
EQUATORWARD INFLOW,
THANKS TO THE MONSOON FLOW.THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD IMPROVE AT RANGE
36:
THE POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS TO BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE
UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE
WEST OF THE SYSTE
M.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TILL RANGE 24H ALONG
THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHEAST,
AND THEN SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES,
AND
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 708
WTIO30 FMEE 090029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5
2.A POSITION 2009/01/09 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 68.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/09 12 UTC: 15.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/01/10 00 UTC: 16.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/01/10 12 UTC: 17.4S/67.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/01/11 00 UTC: 18.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 20.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 23.5S/68.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION STILL
REMAINS
VERY FLUCTUATING AND BARELY CONSOLIDATES CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED
CENTRE
-WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE WITH THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT,
A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL
EQUATORWARD INFLOW, THANKS TO THE MONSOON FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD
IMPROVE AT RANGE 24 TO 36: THE POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY
REBUILD
THANKS TO BUILDI
NG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED IN
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND RANGE 60H, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BECOME
UNFAVOURABLE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TILL RANGE 12 TO 24H
ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THEN SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
PRESSURES, AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
EAST.=

[Chacor]

I don't know where you're getting your WTIO30 advisory from but it's certainly not that choppy to read.

WTIO30 FMEE 090029

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5

2.A POSITION 2009/01/09 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 68.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/09 12 UTC: 15.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/01/10 00 UTC: 16.4S/66.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/01/10 12 UTC: 17.4S/67.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/01/11 00 UTC: 18.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 20.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 23.5S/68.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION STILL REMAINS
VERY FLUCTUATING AND BARELY CONSOLIDATES CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE
-WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE WITH THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL
EQUATORWARD INFLOW, THANKS TO THE MONSOON FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
IMPROVE AT RANGE 24 TO 36: THE POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD
THANKS TO BUILDI
NG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND RANGE 60H, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
UNFAVOURABLE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TILL RANGE 12 TO 24H ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THEN SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
PRESSURES, AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST.

[Crostorm]

I am getting from here

http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/s ... s/lr.html#

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TIO30.FMEE

WTIO30 FMEE 090640

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5

2.A POSITION 2009/01/09 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 68.7E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/09 18 UTC: 16.7S/68.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/10 06 UTC: 17.7S/68.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/10 18 UTC: 18.9S/68.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/11 06 UTC: 21.1S/69.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 23.6S/69.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 26.7S/69.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION STILL REMAINS
VERY FLUCTUATING AND BARELY CONSOLIDATES CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE
-WHICH HAS BEEN RELOCALISED ACCORDING TO FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A
WINDSAT PASS AT 00:53Z (FIX NEAR 16S/69.1E). SYSTEM HAS MOVED
SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NIGHT ALONG AN ESTIMATED 230o/6KT.

CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLOSE TO A MOSOON DEPRESSION ALTHOUGHT NO SCATT
DATA CONFIRM THE WINDFIELD.

OVER THE LAST 3/4 HOURS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO REBUILT WEST OF THE
ESTIMATED LLCC. CIMSS DATA SHOW THAT STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR STILL REMAIN
NORTH OF 15S.

ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL
EQUATORWARD INFLOW, THANKS TO THE MONSOON FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
IMPROVE TOMORROW: THE POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS
TO BUILDING SUBTRO
PICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. AT THE END OF THE FORCAST, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
UNFAVOURABLE WITH COOLER SST AND STRONGER WINDSHEAR.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TILL RANGE 12H ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST,
AND THEN SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, AND
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TPXS10 PGTW 091208

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 09/1130Z

C. 17.2S

D. 67.9E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG SPIRAL FOR A DT
OF 2.0. CNTRL CONVECTION STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. DBO DT. SLOW MET
AND PT AGREE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0730Z 16.8S 68.4E MMHS
09/0856Z 16.9S 68.4E MMHS

BRANDON



NRL: Dongo

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 163
WTIO30 FMEE 091254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5
2.A POSITION 2009/01/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1S / 68.2E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/10 00 UTC: 17.7S/68.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/01/10 12 UTC: 18.7S/68.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/01/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/69.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 22.8S/69.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 25.8S/70.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 29.5S/70.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BUILT NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN
ASCAT PASS AT 05:22Z HAS SHOWN SOME 30 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS
WITH 35 KT WINDS AND HAS BEEN NAMED BY THE MAURITIUS NATIONAL
WEATHER
SERVICE. DATA FROM
BUOY 16588 CONFIRM THE ESTIMATED MSLP.
SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTHSOUTWESTWARDS DURING THE DAY ALONG AN ESTIMATED
210
O/8KT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK
IS
BASED UPON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN ARPEGE, ECMWF, ALADIN AND UKMO.
ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER FAVOURABLE AND SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW: THE
POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS TO BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT
THE SYSTEM HAS A 48 HOURS PERIOD FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE A
DETERIORATION
OF THE ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE FORCAST, WITH
COOLER
SST AND STRONGER WINDSHEAR. PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOW A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATES WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO
A 60
KT TROPICAL CYC
LONE. HOWEVER IT IS NOT UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
FIRST
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN TO WESTERN EDGE OF
THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH EAST.=
NNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 915
WTIO20 FMEE 091227
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/01/2009
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 09/01/2009 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1S / 68.2E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 400 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 550 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT NEAR THE CENTER AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM
THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP LOCALLLY TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2009/01/10 AT 00 UTC:
17.7S / 68.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2009/01/10 AT 12 UTC:
18.7S / 68.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGAN TO STRENGHEN AS IT HAS CURVED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH.
THE CIRCULATION IS STILL VERY WIDE AND THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBED
WEATHER
EXTEND FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER SPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY REGULARY ON ITS SOUTH TO
SOUTHSOUTHEASTERN TRACK.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

Dongo - Warning n°001 JTWC

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081451Z JAN 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.6S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.5S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.6S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DONGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT
OBSCURING WELL-DEFINED AND TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A
09/0844Z PARTIAL AMSR-E IMAGE AND A 09/0856Z AMSU IMAGE BOTH REFLECT
THE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND BETTER
DEFINED LLCC. A 09/0505Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION
WITH MULTIPLE 30-KNOT WIND VECTORS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
QUICKLY IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD WITH DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO STRONG
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-35
KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WINDS, HOWEVER, TC 06S
SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY INTENSIFICATION RATE UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 081451Z JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 081500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Please use the less choppy version of WTIO30 (I posted a link earlier) where possible. Also, WTIO20 is useless once WTIO30 is issued as the latter is more detailed; the former is just the shipping advisory.

[Crostorm]

019
WTIO30 FMEE 091809

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/09 AT 1800 UTC :
18.0S / 67.8E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 36 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/10 06 UTC: 19.4S/67.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/01/10 18 UTC: 20.8S/68.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/01/11 06 UTC: 22.8S/69.6E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 25.6S/70.0E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 28.3S/70.4E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 30.7S/71.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION IS GOING ON ORGANIZING IN CURVED
BAND, AND DATA FROM BUOY 16588 CONFIRM THE DEEPENING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED UPON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN ARPEGE, ECMWF, ALADIN AND UKMO.

ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER FAVOURABLE AND SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW: THE
POLEWARD INFLOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS TO BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES, THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT
THE SYSTEM HAS A 48 HOURS PERIOD FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE A DETERIORATION
OF THE ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE FORCAST, WITH COOLER
SST AND STRONGER WINDSHEAR.

THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN TO WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH EAST.