SIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Eric

[Chacor]

Now a Tropical Depression.

WTIO30 FMEE 180620

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6

2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 51.7E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/18 18 UTC: 17.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 18.8S/49.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.6S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 22.6S/48.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 24.5S/49.4E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 27.1S/50.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5
SYSTEM IS FEED BY A GOOD TRADEWINDS INFLOW, BUT MONSOON FLOW APPEARS
WEAKER AND LESS EFFICIENT (POSSIBLY DISTURBED BY THE NORTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR). WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, SPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART WITH SOME
NICE CIRRUS EXP
ENSION (MORE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN PART). AS THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM
SST IN THE RANGE OF 29oC, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK : THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEEPENING TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 181230

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/6/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6

2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 1200 UTC :
16.9S / 50.9E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 00 UTC: 17.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 19.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 21.7S/48.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 24.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 27.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 30.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5
LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A PERSISTENT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DOESN'T ALLOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING
SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR
TROUGH. OVER THIS NEW TRACK , VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKENING BUT LOW
LEVEL INFLOW IS IN THE SAME TIME EXPECTED TO BE POOR ON THE BOTH SIDES
(LOW PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH AND MONSOON FLOW CUTTED BY MADAGASCAR). INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED AND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IF IT DRIFTS CLOSE ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE
WHERE IT HOWEVER GENERATE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION. WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS,
THIS THUNDERY
AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD ALSO CONCERN LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS.

[Crostorm]

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171851Z JAN 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.0S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.1S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.6S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 50.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTH-
ERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 181017Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S
IS RELATIVELY SMALL WITH A RADIUS OF ABOUT 120 NM BUT IS WELL-
ORGANIZED DESPITE SOME INTERACTION WITH LAND. AN 180518Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATED A SYMMETRIC CORE OF 30-35 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 30-35 KNOTS AS WELL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND STORM MOTION BASED ON THE DEFINED SIGNATURE OF
THE LLCC. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LAND
INTERACTION AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 171851Z
JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 171900).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

18/1430 UTC 16.5S 51.0E T3.0/3.0 08S -- Southwest Indian

[Crostorm]

** WTIO30 FMEE 181826 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6

2.A POSITION 2009/01/18 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 50.5E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 06 UTC: 18.8S/49.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.STORM
24H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.8S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.STORM
36H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 23.3S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.STORM.
48H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 26.1S/49.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.STORM
60H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 28.5S/49.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 31.7S/52.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5

THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY.
LLCC IS STILL LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
THIS LAST ONE HAS NOT APPEARED VERY CONSOLIDATED DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME CYCLE. HOWEVER THE LAST ONE THAT HAVE STARTED AROUND 14Z SEEMS
TO BE MORE PERSISTANT.
IN FACT, IT SEEMS THAT WE ARE CLOSE TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.
A DECREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PERSISTS. SYSTEM SEEMS TO
HAVE BEGIN ITS TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED
230O/6KT).ON THIS TRACK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKENING BUT LOW LEVEL
INFLOW IS IN THE SAME TIME EXPECTED TO BE POOR ON THE BOTH SIDES (LOW
PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH AND MONSOON FLOW CUTTED BY MADAGASCAR). INTENSIFICATION SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED AND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE AS IT DRIFTS CLOSE ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WHERE
IT HOWEVER GENERATE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION. WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THIS
THUNDERY AND RAINY A CTIVITY COULD ALSO CONCERN LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS ISLANDS.=

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

027
WTIO30 FMEE 190040 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 49.9E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 12 UTC: 19.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 21.7S/48.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 24.4S/49.2E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.6S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 28.6S/52.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 31.9S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+

SCATTEROMETRIC DATA (ASCAT PASS OF 17:50Z SHOW SOME NO CONTAMINATED 35 KT
WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE) AND SATELLITE DATA (CURVED BAND THAT
MEASURES 5.5/10 ON EIR IMAGERY) ALLOW A DT AT 2.5+. CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM
HAS BEEN NAMED ERIC BY THE MADAGASCAR WEATHER SERVICES. HOWEVER
CONVECTION IS WARM
ER SINCE 20:30Z PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LANDMASS.

SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED
230o/6KT) AND SHOULD MADE LANDFALL OR PASS VERY NEAR TO THE EAST OF THE
FENERIVE/TAMATAVE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH A
SOUTHWARDS TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

ON THIS TRACK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT SYSTEM SHOULD NOT
INTENSIFY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.

WINDS STRUCTURE IS DISSYMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN
SEMI CIRCLE),

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 002
WTXS31 PGTW 190300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 49.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 49.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.7S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.2S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 49.7E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's inland or on the coast.

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

METAR FMMT 190500Z 12019G33KT 5000-RA FEW007 SCT017 BKN033 26/25 Q1001

Toamasina Madagascar

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/67095.html

[CrazyC83]

Center appears to be just inland. I'd guess 45 kt for the current intensity based on its signature.

[Crostorm]

346
WTIO30 FMEE 190630

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 0600 UTC :
17.9S / 49.5E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/19 18 UTC: 20.3S/48.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 22.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 25.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 27.1S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 29.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 33.5S/59.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
SYSTEM WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE. WIND/PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP NOT RESPECTED.
SCATTEROMETRIC DATA (QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0322Z SHOW SOME NO CONTAMINATED 35
KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY (CDO) ALLOW A
DT AT 2.5+. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS WARMER SINCE 2030Z PROBABLY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF LANDMASS.

SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND SHOULD SKIRT THE
EASTERN MALAGASY COAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT SYSTEM SHOULD NOT
INTENSIFY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.

WINDS STRUCTURE IS DISSYMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN
SEMI CIRCLE).

NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.

[HURAKAN]

Center moving back over water.

[Chacor]

Clearly exposed now though.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 191241 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/6/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ERIC)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1200 UTC :
19.1S / 49.3E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.8S/49.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 23.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 26.5S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 29.6S/50.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 32.0S/55.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 34.3S/62.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5, AND CI=2.5+
ERIC HAS CROSSED TAMATAVE WHERE MEASURED PRESSURE WAS THEN AT 993 HPA.
CENTRE IS FULLY EXPOSED SOUTH OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION AND IS BACK AT
SEA.
SYSTEM WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE. WIND/PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP NOT RESPECTED.
WINDS STRUCTURE IS ASYMMETRIC (GREATER WINDS EXTENSION IN THE EASTERN
SEMI CIRCLE).

SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTRED IN TH EAST. BEYOND RANGE 36H, IT SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARDS
AND EVACUATE WITH THE TRANSITING TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM CAN BENEFIT FROM AN INTENSIFICATION WINDOW UP TO RANGE 24
HOURS, AS THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD TEMPORARILY DECREASED AND AN UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD IMPROVE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 49.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 49.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.2S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.3S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 28.6S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (ERIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY-EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, TC 08S HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO INTER-
ACTION WITH LAND AND HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM 670950 INDICATED 20-25 KNOT SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM PASSED ABOUT 5 NM EAST AT 19/07Z AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 993 MB.
BASED ON THE MINIMUM SLP AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE 12-HOUR MOTION. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST AND THEN WILL TURN MORE SOUTH-
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AS TC
08S TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. REDUCED
INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ALSO FAVOR LIMITED STRENGTHENING
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, TC 08S WILL TRACK INTO STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER COOLER SST, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. SOME FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TC 09S, WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 500 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE PRESENCE OF TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A DEVIATION
IN THE POLEWARD TRACK FOR TC 08S; HOWEVER, IT COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON THE TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//