SPO: JONI - Tropical Cyclone (20P)

[KWT]

It certainly is looking decent circulation wise and if it can burst a bit more convection as well then it will probably become a good deal stronger then expected.

[Pedro Fernández]

The Microwave from a few hours ago may be impressive but this system convection-wise, is unimpressive.

I agree, HURAKAN Nevertheless, there is a good cirrus outflow pattern at the northwestern flank of JONI, and a new burst is rising. I couldn't see any map of windshear from CIMSS in the area. Is it unavailable?

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 55 knots.

[HurricaneBill]

I thought Joni had been retired after hitting Fiji in 1992.

[KWT]

Seems about right, 55kts is pretty decent and the convection does seem to strengthening somewhat, along with the pretty impressive circulation.

[HURAKAN]

This microwave shows a less organized system.

[Chacor]

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE JONI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/0109 UTC 2009 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, RAROTONGA,
MANUAE, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI 11F [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22 DECIMAL
8 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 8 WEST AT 120000UTC OR ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AND 110 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
RAROTONGA. JONI IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS, INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK, JONI WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
MANGAIA.

FOR MANGAIA: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60
KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING FROM LATER TONIGHT. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF
LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR RAROTONGA: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40
KNOTS. WINDS EASING AND TENDING WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. CLODUY
PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. WINDS EASING LATER
TODAY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY
ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR PALMERSTON: MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS.
MODERATE SEAS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 120400 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (JONI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (JONI) WARNING NR 02
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 158.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 158.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.3S 158.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.8S 159.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.1S 159.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.4S 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 158.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF
RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
111806Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE A RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED BANDING AND CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC. A RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGE SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE
LLCC IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 50-55 KNOTS BASED ON INCREASED ORGANI-
ZATION OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM (ALONG 165W), AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST (NEAR 30S 144W), AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (NEAR 20S 140W).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD
ORIENTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TC 20P IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DISRUPTS OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, COOLER
SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.

[HURAKAN]

Storm Warning 007 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/0114 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JONI 11F centre [990hPa] CATEGORY 1 was located near
22 decimal 8 South 158 decimal 8 West at 120000 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 22.8S 158.8W at 120000 UTC.
Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 05 knots and expected to
gradually turn south in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre, increasing to
50 knots in the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre in the
sectors from northeast through southeast to southwest and within 60
nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.3S 159.1W at 121200 UTC.
and near 26.4S 159.4W at 130000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send
reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 006.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Storm Warning 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/0706 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JONI 11F centre [985hPa] CATEGORY 2 was located near
23 decimal 2 South 158 decimal 7 West at 120600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 23.2S 158.7W at 120600 UTC.
Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre in the
southeastern semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre
elsewhere.

Forecast position near 25.4S 158.9W at 121800 UTC.
and near 28.2S 158.9W at 130600 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send
reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 007.

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (JONI) WARNING NR 003
WTPS32 PGTW 120900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (JONI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 23.2S 158.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 158.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.0S 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.4S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.2S 159.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 158.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (JONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. JONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TOWARDS
COOLER WATER AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO BENEFIT FROM DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS ALOFT - ONE AHEAD OF
A TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST, AND ANOTHER INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE EAST - IN ADDITION TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, NFFN, ABRF AND
PHFO, RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS, AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 120458Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FORECAST TO DEGRADE AS THE TROUGH, AND A STRONG JET MAX, ADVANCE
CLOSER TO THE TC FROM THE WEST, AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER
FROM THE EAST, LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2009 Time : 105200 UTC
Lat : 23:51:56 S Lon : 158:43:00 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.1mb/ 65.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.0 4.2 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.1mb

Center Temp : -69.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2009 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 24:01:59 S Lon : 158:44:00 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 985.5mb/ 67.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.1 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.1mb

Center Temp : -74.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Chacor]

Up to 50 kt (Cat 2) from Fiji.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/1259 UTC 2009 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANUAE, MAUKE,
MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI 11F [985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23 DECIMAL
9 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 9 WEST AT 121200UTC OR ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AND 170 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
RAROTONGA. JONI IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10
MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS. ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK, JONI WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER MANGAIA FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

FOR MANGAIA: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR RAROTONGA: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GRADUALLY
EASING. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR MANUAE, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH FEW
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR PALMERSTON AND AITUTAKI: MODERATE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FEW SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 121600 UTC OR EARLIER.

Category Cyclone 1 has mean winds 34-49 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 2 has mean winds 48-63 knots with a central pressure 985-970 hPa
Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa
Category Cyclone 4 has mean winds 86-107 knots with a central pressure 945-910 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 121200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 12/1435 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI 11F [985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9S
158.9W AT 121200 UTC MOVING SOUTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE PASS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS
WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES A
TIGHT CIRCULATION UNDER CDO. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND
JONI IS EXPECTED TO GET CAUGHT IN AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A STRONG
DIFFLUENT REGION IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A
1.0 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN DT=PT=3.5, MET=3.0. FT BASED ON
DT, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY
TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AS JONI MOVES INTO COOLER SSTs AND
INCREASING SHEAR.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 26.0S 159.2W MOV S 11KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 29.2S 159.4W MOV S 16KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 33.3S 158.4W MOV SSE 21KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 37.5S 155.0W MOV SSE 25KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JONI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
122030UTC OR EARLIER.

[Chacor]

WWKU41 NFFN 121500

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/1555 UTC 2009 UTC.




THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANUAE, MAUKE,
MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI 11F [985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 24 DECIMAL
5 SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 4 WEST AT 121500UTC OR ABOUT 175 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AND 200 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF RAROTONGA.
JONI IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO AFFECT MANGAIA.

FOR MANGAIA: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, EASING TODAY. FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR RAROTONGA, MANUAE, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 35 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR PALMERSTON AND AITUTAKI: MODERATE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN
COOKS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 122345 UTC.

[P.K.]

Crossed into Wellington's AOR with winds up to 55kts.

WTPS01 NFFN 121800
Storm Warning 010 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/1903 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JONI 11F centre [980hPa] CATEGORY 2 was located near
25 decimal 0 South 159 decimal 5 West at 121800 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 25.0S 159.5W at 121800 UTC.
Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre in the
southeastern semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre
elsewhere.

Forecast position near 27.9S 159.3W at 130600 UTC.
and near 31.7S 158.8W at 131800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send
reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 009.

Primary responsibility for future warnings on Tropical Cyclone Joni
will rest with Wellington.