SPO: KEN - Tropical Cyclone (21P)
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HURAKAN
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.1S 163.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160511Z SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS (SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM), AS
WELL AS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW AND A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160511Z SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS (SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM), AS
WELL AS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS-
EQUATORIAL FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW AND A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 16/1006 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.0S 164.0W AT
160600UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT-IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION,
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST Q-SCAT PASS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MORE LOW-MID LEVEL. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND IS SLOWLY MOVING IT SOUTH
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 16/1006 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.0S 164.0W AT
160600UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT-IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION,
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST Q-SCAT PASS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MORE LOW-MID LEVEL. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND IS SLOWLY MOVING IT SOUTH
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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TCFA:
WTPS21 PGTW 161300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 163.5W TO 23.9S 160.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.9S 163.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
163.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 163.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-
WEST OF RAROTONGA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0803Z
METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM, LIKE TC 20P, IS DEVELOPING FROM THE MID-LEVELS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE 20P, THIS SYSTEM HAS BETTER
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MORE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING EVID-
ENT AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT
LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, SCATTEROMETER DATA
HAS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTED A STRENGTHENING LLCC. A PARTIAL 160805Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THESE WINDS WERE VERIFIED BY A 16/00Z SHIP OBSERVATION FROM
MYMX5 OF 340/22 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH VERY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS (SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM), AS WELL AS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW. THE SST OF 29C, OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND A DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE (> 60MM) SUPPORT CONTIN-
UED CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 171300Z.//
WTPS21 PGTW 161300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 163.5W TO 23.9S 160.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.9S 163.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
163.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 163.2W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-
WEST OF RAROTONGA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0803Z
METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM, LIKE TC 20P, IS DEVELOPING FROM THE MID-LEVELS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE 20P, THIS SYSTEM HAS BETTER
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MORE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING EVID-
ENT AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT
LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, SCATTEROMETER DATA
HAS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTED A STRENGTHENING LLCC. A PARTIAL 160805Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THESE WINDS WERE VERIFIED BY A 16/00Z SHIP OBSERVATION FROM
MYMX5 OF 340/22 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH VERY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS (SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM), AS WELL AS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW. THE SST OF 29C, OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND A DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE (> 60MM) SUPPORT CONTIN-
UED CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 171300Z.//
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MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5792
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: SPO: Invest 95P
I'd say the odds look good for a TC to develope in the next 24-48 hours....MGC
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 16/2345 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21S 163.1W AT
162100UTC MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT-IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED CLOSE TO LLCC. EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING FEEDER BANDS AROUND THE SYSTEM. SYSYTEM LIES
UNDER A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.
GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF 12F. ECMWF INDICATES
AN AMPLIFYING THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 12F AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 16/2345 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD12F [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21S 163.1W AT
162100UTC MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT-IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED CLOSE TO LLCC. EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING FEEDER BANDS AROUND THE SYSTEM. SYSYTEM LIES
UNDER A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.
GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF 12F. ECMWF INDICATES
AN AMPLIFYING THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 12F AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 17/0239 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7S
163.1W AT 170000 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC CONSOLIDATING. SPIRAL BAND TO EAST
CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND
EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.30 WRAP
ON LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN DT=PT=2.0, MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT,
YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION.
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.
GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF 12F. ECMWF INDICATES
AN AMPLIFYING THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 12F AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
170830 UTC OR EARLIER.
Mar 17/0239 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7S
163.1W AT 170000 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC CONSOLIDATING. SPIRAL BAND TO EAST
CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND
EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A 0.30 WRAP
ON LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN DT=PT=2.0, MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT,
YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION.
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE SYSTEM. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.
GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF 12F. ECMWF INDICATES
AN AMPLIFYING THERMAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 12F AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
170830 UTC OR EARLIER.
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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Gale Warning 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 17/0710 UTC 2009 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone KEN 12F [995hPa] CATEGORY 1 centre was located near
21 decimal 7 South 162 decimal 3 West at 170600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 21.7S 162.3W at 170600 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at about 11 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre.
Forecast position near 23.6S 161.3W at 171800 UTC.
and near 25.5S 160.0W at 180600 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send
reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.
Tropical Cyclone KEN 12F [995hPa] CATEGORY 1 centre was located near
21 decimal 7 South 162 decimal 3 West at 170600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 21.7S 162.3W at 170600 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at about 11 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre.
Forecast position near 23.6S 161.3W at 171800 UTC.
and near 25.5S 160.0W at 180600 UTC.
All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send
reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.
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