Bay of Bengal: BIJLI - Deep Depression (01B)

[Chacor]

JTWC 12z warning expects 01B to become extratropical in about 48 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

Starting to develop an eye?

no... it is a disorganized cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 85.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 85.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.7N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.6N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.6N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6N 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.2N 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
LAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 151311Z
SSMI/S IMAGE DEPICT AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER ASIA MINOR. AFTER TAU 12 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
AND RECURVE AS IT APPROACHES A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
INDIA THAT WILL HELP TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
CONCENTRATION OF AIDS AGREEING WITH THIS FORECAST AND THE OUTLIER
EGRR INDICATING A STRAIGHT TRACK INTO THE INDIAN MAINLAND. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXHIBITING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
STEADILY BACKING OFF OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. FORECAST INTENSITY IS
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER THE
SYSTEM COMPLETES RECURVATURE AND BEGINS ACCELERATING INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. // BT
#0001

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 45 knots

[badkhan]

WTIO31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.6N 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.5N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.7N 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.6N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.8N 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 85.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
OFF A 1707Z TRMM IMAGE, WHICH IS INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. THE TC IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN BETWEEN
A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES OVER MYANMAR AND INDIA. A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE TC, BUT A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS NOT PRESENT. THE TC IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO TURN BACK TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 24. THE NOGAPS MODEL FIELDS SHOW A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE TC HELPING TO INDUCE THIS
TURN. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH
OF THE TC, FURTHER STEERING THE TC TO THE EAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH/MYANMAR BORDER PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING SIMILAR TRACKS, HOWEVER THE
GFS AND EGRR HAVE A MUCH WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE STORM AND DO NOT
FORECAST THE TURN TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS NOGAPS
AND ECMWF DUE TO THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER TC. THE LATEST
RUN OF STIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AND THIS SEEMS TO MATCH WELL WITH SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN

BTW Bijli means lightning in Urdu. Its a really cool name for a storm IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC has the windshield wiper forecasting method going on in terms of intensity

[Chacor]

Just to point out there is no such classification as a "Cyclonic Tropical Storm".

[HURAKAN]

Just to point out there is no such classification as a "Cyclonic Tropical Storm".

Thanks for the correction. It was my fault.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 86.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 86.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.3N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.0N 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.2N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. BASED ON THE POSITION FIX FROM
PGTW AND ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
RECURVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALY-
SIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AFTER TAU 24, ENHANCING A MORE EASTERLY
PROGRESSION FOR TC 01B. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH/MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN CONFORMITY WITH THIS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 161500Z AND 162100Z.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.4N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.2N 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5N 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0800Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, ENHANCING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION FOR
TC 01B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY-THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN DISSIPATE
NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170300Z.

[Chacor]

IMD continues to maintain at 40 kt.

[HURAKAN]

16/1430 UTC 18.8N 86.8E T3.5/3.5 BIJLI -- Bay of Bengal

Intensifying.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 50 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.9N 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.8N 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.4N 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.8N 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 87.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161611Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B IS TURNING INCREASINGLY
EASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN BANGLADESH AND MYANMAR AROUND TAU 36. TC 01B
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF GOOD RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 APR 2009 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 19:53:13 N Lon : 88:02:04 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -71.3C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Close to land.