WPAC: TD CHAN-HOM (TD 02W)

[senorpepr]

Just popped up on NRL:



It's somewhat associated with the rest of the mess (94W/96W). I'm still not very confident with this disturbance. Honestly, I feel this invest is only active due to proximity to Vietnam.

[theavocado]

It looked good (actually, FAIR) for a while there. The convergent flow to the north with the equatorward westerlies made for good turning and a real nice flare of convection outside of the diurnal max. It's since started to look a lot more elongated and broad. Between this and 01W, they seem to have sucked the life out of 96W.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[wyq614]

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 9.6N 110.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 022030Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 110.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
111.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS
TRACKED UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS CONTINUING TO GROW
LARGER AND MORE ORGANIZED. A 021343Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC HAS WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER WITH AN AREA OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BETWEEN THE LLCC AND
COASTAL VIETNAM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
PROVIDING AMPLE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032200Z.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 111E SW SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 09.7N 111.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[P.K.]

TS forecast within 6 hours.

FKPQ31 RJTD 030600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090503/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: NIL
NR: 1
PSN: N0940 E11130
MOV: SLW
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 03/1200Z N0950 E11130
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 03/1800Z N1005 E11140
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/0000Z N1030 E11210
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 04/0600Z N1100 E11300
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090503/1200Z =

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 655
WTPQ21 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 09.7N 111.6E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 11.1N 113.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN




From Hong Kong:
Bulletin issued at 19:00 HKT 03/May/2009

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 030900 UTC, the tropical depression over the central
part of South China Sea with central pressure 1002
hectopascals was centred within 90 nautical miles of nine
point six degrees north (9.6 N) one one one point six
degrees east (111.6 E) and is forecast to move
east-northeast at about 7 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 30 knots.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 90 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 040900 UTC
One one point zero degrees north (11.0 N)
One one four point one degrees east (114.1 E)
Maximum winds 40 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 050900 UTC
One three point two degrees north (13.2 N)
One one five point one degrees east (115.1 E)
Maximum winds 50 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 060900 UTC
One four point eight degrees north (14.8 N)
One one six point eight degrees east (116.8 E)
Maximum winds 50 knots.

[Chacor]

Chan-hom.

WTPQ21 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 09.9N 111.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 10.7N 112.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 051200UTC 11.8N 114.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 061200UTC 12.4N 116.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[KWT]

Very interesting so we have a fairly active start to May in the WPAC it seems, slow strengthening forecast which seems fairly reasonable to me.

[Chacor]

WTPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022151ZMAY2009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 111.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 111.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 10.2N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.9N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.7N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 12.4N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.2N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.6N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 111.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 022151Z MAY 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 022200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W (KUJIRA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 10.2N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 10.9N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 11.8N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.8N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.7N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.5N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.1N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 112.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W (KUJIRA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

03/2057 UTC 10.8N 112.4E T2.5/2.5 CHAN-HOM -- West Pacific

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 10.7N 112.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 12.3N 113.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060000UTC 13.8N 115.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070000UTC 14.1N 117.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Held at 35 kt at 03z.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0902 CHAN-HOM (0902)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 10.9N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 12.8N 113.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 060600UTC 14.3N 115.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 070600UTC 14.5N 118.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE E 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[HURAKAN]