EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)

[Derek Ortt]

keep in mind, this was never expected to intensify quickly

[cycloneye]

It looks like the record for the latest named storm formation date (June 19th 1994) will be broken this year as TD ONE-E looks like a skeleton.

[Macrocane]

What is happening to the tropics? Oh well, now we will have to wait even more unless convection flares up again in TD One-E, but that would be a miracle.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 190242
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
220 MILES...360 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING LAS ISLAS MARIAS FRIDAY EVENING AND THE MAINLAND COAST
OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE
MEXICAN COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.9N 107.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN


WTPZ41 KNHC 190245
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE DEPRESSION APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF REACHING TROPICAL
STORM STATUS THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. AS A RESULT...THE DVORAK T NUMBERS CAME
FROM IN TAFB AND SAB LOWER AT 1.5...THOUGH THE CI NUMBERS REMAINED
AT 2.0. THUS CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

A WELL-PLACED AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AT 2026Z ALLOWED FOR A MODERATELY
CONFIDENT INITIAL POSITION AND ESTIMATED 20 DEGREE/7 KT INITIAL
MOTION. THIS NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A VERY
DEEP TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS DEEP
CONVECTION AND A MEDIUM TO DEEP VORTEX. BECAUSE OF THE GFS'
ERRONEOUSLY WEAK DEPICTION OF THE VORTEX AT THE INITIAL TIME...THE
VERY QUICK NORTHWARD TRACK BY THE GFS AND THE HRWF APPEAR TO BE
UNREALISTIC. ADDITIONALLY...THE EGRI TRACKER LOST THE VORTEX FOR
SOME REASON...SO THE SLOW NORTHWARD TRACKING UKMI WAS UTILIZED
INSTEAD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS THUS A BLEND OF THE
UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND
TO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL JUST OFF OF THE MEXICO COAST IN ABOUT
TWO DAYS IF IT SHEARS APART AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY STEERED BY WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW. BECAUSE OF THE FARTHER EAST FORECAST TRACK...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST.

THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT A 12 TO 18 HOUR WIND TO INTENSIFY INTO A
TROPICAL STORM WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THOUGH THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN
MEXICO...THE MODERATE SHEAR AND STABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...AS DOES THIS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 18.9N 107.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 20.2N 107.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 21.4N 107.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 22.5N 106.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 23.7N 106.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JUN 2009 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 18:51:57 N Lon : 107:42:32 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +0.8C Cloud Region Temp : -33.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 18:51:36 N Lon: 108:18:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

Convection is now developing again close to the center, it's bedtime for me but I agree with the NHC that it still has the potential to be Andres, let's see what happens.

[HURAKAN]

NEW RECORD!!!!

887
WTPZ31 KNHC 190532
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
195 MILES...315 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11
MPH...18 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING LAS ISLAS MARIAS LATER TODAY AND THE MAINLAND COAST
OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE
MEXICAN COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.1N 107.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

[Ad Novoxium]

It looks like the record for the latest named storm formation date (June 19th 1994) will be broken this year as TD ONE-E looks like a skeleton.

If you mean since reliable hurricane records in the basin (circa 1966), then no, 94 does not hold the record for latest named storm formation: 1969 had a later date. Ava became a depression on July 1, and reached tropical storm strength on July 3.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD A LITTLE
FASTER...HEAVY RAINS APPROACHING ISLAS MARIAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST OR ABOUT
245 MILES...395 KM...SOUTH OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AND ABOUT 190 MILES...
305 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR ISLAS MARIAS LATER
TODAY AND THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.7N 107.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
BECOMING SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE DEPRESSION AND
THE CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL ARE DIMINISHING. IN FACT...NONE 0600 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM...AND THE SHEAR
IS STILL LOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR MEXICO ARE KEPT IN PLACE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/10. THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS MEANDERING BETWEEN ISLAS MARIAS AND MAINLAND MEXICO
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES RACING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS
THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY SOME GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 19.7N 107.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 106.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 22.0N 106.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JUN 2009 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 19:49:11 N Lon : 107:03:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.1 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -21.3C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.16^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

The center is south of the convection.

[cycloneye]

132
WTPZ31 KNHC 191133
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 215 MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR LAS ISLAS
MARIAS LATER TODAY AND THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 107.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[KWT]

Big convective burst though the southerly shear has prevented the system from being able to strengthen despite another large D-Max driven convective burst. Wonder whether the NHC will upgrade based on the increasing Dvorak estimates?

Also new record now as every one has said!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
1500 UTC FRI JUN 19 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 107.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 107.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.2N 106.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.2N 106.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...HEAVY RAINS MOVING INTO THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
WILL BE NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS TODAY AND NEAR THE MAINLAND COAST OF
MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.0N 107.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DOES NOT
BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME...
ONE COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK BEFORE DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS
OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. IF THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS FASTER THAN
INDICATED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE LEFT BEHIND TO MEANDER
BETWEEN LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 21.0N 107.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 22.0N 106.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 23.2N 106.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 106.6W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TD 1-E not catching a break.

[cycloneye]

869
WTPZ31 KNHC 191753
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...
16 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE
COME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.5N 106.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[HURAKAN]

Andrés, take the next train!!!