EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 01, 2009061918, , BEST, 0, 219N, 1069W, 30, 1001, TD

[HURAKAN]

[MGC]

Looks like TD-1E is inland....MGC

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JUN 2009 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 21:40:40 N Lon : 106:59:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +5.9C Cloud Region Temp : -28.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 21:52:12 N Lon: 105:58:48 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



The estimate is useless!

[HURAKAN]

740
WTPZ31 KNHC 192038
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF EL ROBLITO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO. THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...IS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.3N 106.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG


648
WTPZ41 KNHC 192039
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE CIRRUS
CANOPY. IN FACT...THE CIRCULATION MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS PUSHED THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 KT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED AT MAZATLAN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 015/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TAKES THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS AND SHOWS
DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE
SOONER IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
NO LONGER PRESENT.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
MEXICAN COAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 22.3N 106.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.6N 106.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[cycloneye]

Now lets wait and see when the first named storm forms,to then set a new record of the latest date of formation in the EPAC.

[brunota2003]

Now lets wait and see when the first named storm forms,to then set a new record of the latest date of formation in the EPAC.

Perhaps we'll break the pre 1970 record of July 6, too?

[HURAKAN]

Now lets wait and see when the first named storm forms,to then set a new record of the latest date of formation in the EPAC.

Perhaps we'll break the pre 1970 record of July 6, too?

The record is July 2, 1969.

[brunota2003]

ok then, July 2 thats just 4 less days to go!

[HURAKAN]

ok then, July 2 thats just 4 less days to go!

It will be really weird to hold the EPAC from a named storm in the next two weeks.

[KWT]

Amazing that this depression never even made it to a TS, it had several chances and still managed to never quite make it despite looking like a TS at several times.

So the wait for the EPAC to get a storm goes on...and on...and on!

[Macrocane]

GFS, CMC, NOGAPS and Euro supports development of a possible TD or TS by early next week, the most limiting factor would be proximity to land, but let's see what happens maybe the pre 1970 won't be broken.

[HURAKAN]

In case you wonder, in 1969 there were two tropical depression before Ava formed on July 1st and intensified to storm on July 2nd. Without reliable satellite images, ship reports, and RECON, I think it's possible that at least one of the depression could have reached 35 knots.

[HURAKAN]

270
WTPZ21 KNHC 192344
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
0000 UTC SAT JUN 20 2009

AT 5 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED AT 20/0000Z

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Last Discussion about TD 01E

770
WTPZ41 KNHC 192346
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE REMAINING TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

MOISTURE FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HurricaneBill]

This is the same name list that was used in 2003. Although that season had 2 named storms by now, the first hurricane (Ignacio) did not form until August 24th. As if to make up for lost time, 6 of the next 7 named storms became hurricanes. The 2003 season finished with 16 named storms, 7 of which were hurricanes. However, none became major hurricanes. The last time that happened was 1977.

[cycloneye]

92E / 01E has been deactivated.

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