00 UTC Best Track
EP, 92, 2009061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1083W, 25, 1005, DB
EPAC : Tropical Depression (01E)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139087
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
WTPN21 PHNC 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 107.7W TO 20.4N 109.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 107.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 107.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE LLCC BUT WERE ABLE TO SHOW 20-
KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 17/1800Z SHIP
OBSERVATION FROM THE APL AUSTRALIA LOCATED 150 NM TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALSO REPORTED 20-KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS UNDER MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ANALYSIS
ALSO DEPICTS POINT-SOURCE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GIVING THE SYSTEM SOME
RADIAL EXHAUST THOUGH A CHANNEL TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE CUT
OFF BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182300Z.//
WTPN21 PHNC 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 107.7W TO 20.4N 109.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 107.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 107.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE LLCC BUT WERE ABLE TO SHOW 20-
KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 17/1800Z SHIP
OBSERVATION FROM THE APL AUSTRALIA LOCATED 150 NM TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST ALSO REPORTED 20-KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS UNDER MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ANALYSIS
ALSO DEPICTS POINT-SOURCE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GIVING THE SYSTEM SOME
RADIAL EXHAUST THOUGH A CHANNEL TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE CUT
OFF BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182300Z.//
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Andrew92
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- Posts: 3247
- Age: 40
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Lovely. 
Yes, it hasn't developed yet, and it is very early in the season. And of course, I'm extremely unlikely to get hit by any strong winds. But there's always that dreaded flood threat, and I am going on a hiking trip in Sedona on Saturday.
Rain is always nice in Arizona, but not flooding from tropical cyclones. We get enough from monsoons.
-Andrew92
Yes, it hasn't developed yet, and it is very early in the season. And of course, I'm extremely unlikely to get hit by any strong winds. But there's always that dreaded flood threat, and I am going on a hiking trip in Sedona on Saturday.
Rain is always nice in Arizona, but not flooding from tropical cyclones. We get enough from monsoons.
-Andrew92
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
644
WHXX01 KMIA 180048
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090618 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090618 0000 090618 1200 090619 0000 090619 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 108.3W 17.2N 109.8W 18.3N 110.9W 19.2N 111.4W
BAMD 16.1N 108.3W 17.2N 109.8W 18.9N 111.0W 20.8N 111.7W
BAMM 16.1N 108.3W 17.3N 109.9W 18.7N 110.9W 20.0N 111.4W
LBAR 16.1N 108.3W 17.4N 109.3W 19.1N 109.9W 21.2N 110.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090620 0000 090621 0000 090622 0000 090623 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 111.9W 21.1N 112.6W 21.5N 113.3W 21.9N 114.4W
BAMD 22.8N 112.2W 26.8N 113.3W 31.0N 114.3W 37.4N 114.5W
BAMM 21.2N 111.9W 23.4N 113.0W 25.1N 114.5W 27.0N 116.1W
LBAR 23.5N 110.8W 29.1N 110.5W 35.6N 105.9W 40.1N 96.9W
SHIP 34KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 108.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 107.2W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 106.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KMIA 180048
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090618 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090618 0000 090618 1200 090619 0000 090619 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 108.3W 17.2N 109.8W 18.3N 110.9W 19.2N 111.4W
BAMD 16.1N 108.3W 17.2N 109.8W 18.9N 111.0W 20.8N 111.7W
BAMM 16.1N 108.3W 17.3N 109.9W 18.7N 110.9W 20.0N 111.4W
LBAR 16.1N 108.3W 17.4N 109.3W 19.1N 109.9W 21.2N 110.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090620 0000 090621 0000 090622 0000 090623 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 111.9W 21.1N 112.6W 21.5N 113.3W 21.9N 114.4W
BAMD 22.8N 112.2W 26.8N 113.3W 31.0N 114.3W 37.4N 114.5W
BAMM 21.2N 111.9W 23.4N 113.0W 25.1N 114.5W 27.0N 116.1W
LBAR 23.5N 110.8W 29.1N 110.5W 35.6N 105.9W 40.1N 96.9W
SHIP 34KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 108.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 107.2W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 106.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER WAS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR 16N108W...OR ABOUT 260 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING
WNW AT 9 KT. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
ELONGATED MONSOON CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...MAINLY NE...WHERE WIND SHEAR IS VERY
LIGHT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS IMPROVED. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
ELONGATED... WITH A TROUGH CONNECTING THIS CENTER TO A SECOND LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED NEAR 10.5N113W. MORNING
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALL ALONG THE S SIDE OF THIS CONNECTING TROUGH. LIGHT TO
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAIN NW OF THE LOW.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN BEGINS
TO MOVE MORE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER WAS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
NEAR 16N108W...OR ABOUT 260 MILES SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING
WNW AT 9 KT. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
ELONGATED MONSOON CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...MAINLY NE...WHERE WIND SHEAR IS VERY
LIGHT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS IMPROVED. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
ELONGATED... WITH A TROUGH CONNECTING THIS CENTER TO A SECOND LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED NEAR 10.5N113W. MORNING
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALL ALONG THE S SIDE OF THIS CONNECTING TROUGH. LIGHT TO
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR REMAIN NW OF THE LOW.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN BEGINS
TO MOVE MORE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUN 17 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUN 17 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES OF 1006 MB IS NEAR 16N109W...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SW OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NW 7 KT. THE LOW IS ON THE NE SIDE OF
AN ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 102W AND
117W FROM 8N TO 16N. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ACQUIRING SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
13N110W TO 14N108W. THIS OUTBURST CONVECTION IS DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT MOST PROBABLE IS THE
FIRST SIGNS THAT THE LOW IS STRENGTHENING SOME WITH THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING INTO A MORE CONSISTENT BAND DURING THE MORNING. A HIGH
RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0100 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED S TO
SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 220 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...AND ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITH SE-S WINDS OF
MAINLY 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT. MANY RAIN
FLAGGED WIND VECTORS OF HIGHER SPEEDS WHERE NOTED SE OF THE LOW
AND TROUGH. THE S TO SW WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
LATEST NHC OUTLOOK HAS THIS SYSTEM UNDER A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS MORE TO THE N. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES OF 1006 MB IS NEAR 16N109W...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SW OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NW 7 KT. THE LOW IS ON THE NE SIDE OF
AN ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 102W AND
117W FROM 8N TO 16N. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ACQUIRING SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
13N110W TO 14N108W. THIS OUTBURST CONVECTION IS DUE TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE SEEN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT MOST PROBABLE IS THE
FIRST SIGNS THAT THE LOW IS STRENGTHENING SOME WITH THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING INTO A MORE CONSISTENT BAND DURING THE MORNING. A HIGH
RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0100 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED S TO
SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 220 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...AND ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITH SE-S WINDS OF
MAINLY 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT. MANY RAIN
FLAGGED WIND VECTORS OF HIGHER SPEEDS WHERE NOTED SE OF THE LOW
AND TROUGH. THE S TO SW WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
LATEST NHC OUTLOOK HAS THIS SYSTEM UNDER A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS MORE TO THE N. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
TD Forming
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181148
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
MAY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181148
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
MAY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
12 UTC Best track
EP, 92, 2009061812, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1085W, 25, 1005, DB
EP, 92, 2009061812, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1085W, 25, 1005, DB
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
675
WHXX01 KMIA 181235
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090618 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090618 1200 090619 0000 090619 1200 090620 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 108.5W 19.5N 108.8W 20.6N 108.5W 21.4N 108.4W
BAMD 17.9N 108.5W 20.3N 108.6W 23.0N 107.9W 25.9N 107.0W
BAMM 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.8W 21.5N 108.2W 22.9N 107.7W
LBAR 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.7W 22.3N 108.6W 25.5N 108.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090620 1200 090621 1200 090622 1200 090623 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 108.3W 21.8N 109.0W 22.2N 110.6W 23.3N 112.4W
BAMD 29.0N 105.8W 35.4N 101.3W 37.5N 91.5W 31.2N 84.7W
BAMM 23.9N 107.5W 25.1N 108.6W 26.3N 111.2W 28.2N 113.0W
LBAR 29.2N 108.4W 37.6N 103.6W 39.8N 88.7W 32.8N 82.9W
SHIP 26KTS 28KTS 25KTS 21KTS
DSHP 26KTS 28KTS 25KTS 24KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 108.1W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 107.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KMIA 181235
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090618 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090618 1200 090619 0000 090619 1200 090620 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 108.5W 19.5N 108.8W 20.6N 108.5W 21.4N 108.4W
BAMD 17.9N 108.5W 20.3N 108.6W 23.0N 107.9W 25.9N 107.0W
BAMM 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.8W 21.5N 108.2W 22.9N 107.7W
LBAR 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.7W 22.3N 108.6W 25.5N 108.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090620 1200 090621 1200 090622 1200 090623 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 108.3W 21.8N 109.0W 22.2N 110.6W 23.3N 112.4W
BAMD 29.0N 105.8W 35.4N 101.3W 37.5N 91.5W 31.2N 84.7W
BAMM 23.9N 107.5W 25.1N 108.6W 26.3N 111.2W 28.2N 113.0W
LBAR 29.2N 108.4W 37.6N 103.6W 39.8N 88.7W 32.8N 82.9W
SHIP 26KTS 28KTS 25KTS 21KTS
DSHP 26KTS 28KTS 25KTS 24KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 108.1W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 107.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 139087
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
SSD Dvorak T Numbers
18/1200 UTC 16.2N 108.6W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific
18/1200 UTC 16.2N 108.6W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific
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srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
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- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
Looks as if the EPAC is about to get going. I see another area of near the GOT to keep an eye on as well, but that will be a different Topic along with the area SW of 92E.
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Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
It really has strong convection and looks better organized than ever, but I agree that it seems that the organization hasn't reached the surface, even though I think that the trend will continue and hopefully it will become the first TD of the EPAC season at anytime today.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139087
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
Its a TD!
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922009_ep012009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906181331
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Lets wait for the first advisory at 8 AM PDT or 11 AM EDT.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922009_ep012009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906181331
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Lets wait for the first advisory at 8 AM PDT or 11 AM EDT.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : Invest 92E
829
WHXX01 KMIA 181335
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E (EP012009) 20090618 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090618 1200 090619 0000 090619 1200 090620 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 108.5W 19.5N 108.8W 20.6N 108.5W 21.4N 108.4W
BAMD 17.9N 108.5W 20.3N 108.6W 23.0N 107.9W 25.9N 107.0W
BAMM 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.8W 21.5N 108.2W 22.9N 107.7W
LBAR 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.7W 22.3N 108.6W 25.5N 108.6W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 23KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 23KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090620 1200 090621 1200 090622 1200 090623 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 108.3W 21.8N 109.0W 22.2N 110.6W 23.3N 112.4W
BAMD 29.0N 105.8W 35.4N 101.3W 37.5N 91.5W 31.2N 84.7W
BAMM 23.9N 107.5W 25.1N 108.6W 26.3N 111.2W 28.2N 113.0W
LBAR 29.2N 108.4W 37.6N 103.6W 39.8N 88.7W 32.8N 82.9W
SHIP 23KTS 24KTS 21KTS 18KTS
DSHP 23KTS 26KTS 22KTS 23KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 108.1W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 107.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KMIA 181335
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC THU JUN 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E (EP012009) 20090618 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090618 1200 090619 0000 090619 1200 090620 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 108.5W 19.5N 108.8W 20.6N 108.5W 21.4N 108.4W
BAMD 17.9N 108.5W 20.3N 108.6W 23.0N 107.9W 25.9N 107.0W
BAMM 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.8W 21.5N 108.2W 22.9N 107.7W
LBAR 17.9N 108.5W 19.8N 108.7W 22.3N 108.6W 25.5N 108.6W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 23KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 24KTS 23KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090620 1200 090621 1200 090622 1200 090623 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 108.3W 21.8N 109.0W 22.2N 110.6W 23.3N 112.4W
BAMD 29.0N 105.8W 35.4N 101.3W 37.5N 91.5W 31.2N 84.7W
BAMM 23.9N 107.5W 25.1N 108.6W 26.3N 111.2W 28.2N 113.0W
LBAR 29.2N 108.4W 37.6N 103.6W 39.8N 88.7W 32.8N 82.9W
SHIP 23KTS 24KTS 21KTS 18KTS
DSHP 23KTS 26KTS 22KTS 23KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 108.1W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 107.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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