EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES (02E)

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231856
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 36 20090623
184800 1831N 10541W 6971 03137 0073 +070 +019 036038 041 035 009 00
184830 1831N 10540W 6974 03135 0058 +081 +012 036040 041 036 009 00
184900 1831N 10538W 6967 03137 0053 +084 +007 036042 043 037 005 00
184930 1831N 10536W 6966 03140 0057 +083 +004 038043 044 035 003 00
185000 1831N 10535W 6968 03134 0053 +083 +002 037045 047 036 003 00
185030 1831N 10533W 6966 03136 0050 +084 +001 036045 046 037 003 00
185100 1831N 10532W 6970 03134 0036 +094 +001 037050 053 036 005 03
185130 1830N 10530W 6963 03135 0025 +095 +003 037054 054 043 003 00
185200 1829N 10529W 6972 03119 0023 +094 +006 034056 057 044 004 00
185230 1828N 10527W 6966 03120 0018 +094 +010 032057 058 044 004 00
185300 1827N 10526W 6967 03117 0012 +096 +012 030057 058 046 007 00
185330 1826N 10524W 6972 03104 0027 +080 +013 025060 062 048 010 00
185400 1825N 10523W 6959 03119 0033 +071 +010 018061 061 051 012 00
185430 1824N 10521W 6971 03099 0029 +074 +006 015061 061 052 012 00
185500 1822N 10520W 6968 03098 0021 +075 +001 012059 061 052 015 00
185530 1822N 10518W 6965 03099 0012 +080 -002 008053 056 052 013 03
185600 1821N 10516W 6970 03092 9989 +098 -004 001049 051 059 008 00
185630 1821N 10515W 6966 03092 9976 +100 -003 354050 051 061 008 03
185700 1821N 10513W 6973 03076 9979 +091 -000 351046 048 065 010 00
185730 1820N 10511W 6970 03066 9965 +094 +002 354045 045 067 011 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231906
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 37 20090623
185800 1820N 10509W 6967 03064 9931 +115 +003 350038 041 067 007 00
185830 1820N 10507W 6965 03060 9917 +122 +007 344031 033 064 008 03
185900 1820N 10505W 6967 03049 9898 +128 +014 336025 028 057 008 00
185930 1821N 10503W 6967 03040 9879 +137 +022 331022 023 042 005 03
190000 1822N 10502W 6966 03035 9868 +138 +031 326014 017 033 005 00
190030 1822N 10500W 6969 03026 9853 +144 +039 321006 009 026 005 00
190100 1823N 10458W 6965 03032 9856 +142 +046 170004 009 021 004 00
190130 1824N 10457W 6967 03030 9860 +139 +052 155015 017 018 005 03
190200 1825N 10455W 6958 03043 9870 +133 +056 146020 021 022 005 03
190230 1825N 10454W 6966 03035 9870 +132 +058 146026 028 026 005 00
190300 1825N 10452W 6967 03036 9879 +127 +059 153032 034 030 004 00
190330 1825N 10450W 6969 03037 9887 +125 +059 159036 037 034 003 00
190400 1824N 10449W 6966 03049 9895 +125 +058 165040 043 039 004 00
190430 1824N 10447W 6970 03048 9906 +125 +056 171047 048 046 005 00
190500 1824N 10445W 6966 03065 9914 +124 +055 172050 050 057 006 00
190530 1824N 10443W 6974 03063 9926 +124 +053 170054 055 061 006 00
190600 1824N 10442W 6962 03085 9939 +120 +050 171056 056 061 005 00
190630 1824N 10440W 6965 03094 9957 +114 +049 174056 056 061 004 00
190700 1824N 10438W 6970 03094 9968 +111 +047 173053 054 058 006 00
190730 1824N 10437W 6969 03103 9995 +096 +046 173054 056 057 009 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231916
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 38 20090623
190800 1824N 10435W 6968 03113 0027 +076 +041 174055 058 053 012 00
190830 1824N 10433W 6966 03116 0035 +077 +032 172053 053 053 011 00
190900 1824N 10431W 6966 03122 0021 +092 +020 174052 052 052 010 00
190930 1824N 10430W 6969 03121 0020 +099 +011 172052 052 050 006 00
191000 1824N 10428W 6967 03129 0022 +100 +005 172052 053 049 005 00
191030 1824N 10426W 6967 03134 0029 +096 +002 173052 052 048 005 00
191100 1824N 10425W 6966 03135 0040 +091 +003 172051 052 046 004 00
191130 1824N 10423W 6968 03137 0048 +086 +005 170048 048 044 005 00
191200 1824N 10421W 6970 03139 0053 +085 +008 166046 047 041 004 00
191230 1824N 10420W 6966 03143 0054 +086 +009 168044 045 040 005 00
191300 1824N 10418W 6967 03145 0058 +086 +010 167042 042 037 006 00
191330 1823N 10416W 6967 03144 0062 +085 +009 166039 039 037 005 00
191400 1823N 10414W 6967 03150 0059 +089 +009 168039 040 037 006 00
191430 1823N 10413W 6969 03146 0064 +085 +010 168038 039 035 005 00
191500 1823N 10411W 6965 03152 0070 +080 +010 170036 038 038 007 00
191530 1823N 10409W 6966 03153 0079 +073 +010 181034 035 037 010 00
191600 1823N 10407W 6965 03158 0105 +057 +008 172038 040 038 010 00
191630 1823N 10406W 6966 03155 0103 +057 +003 163039 041 037 010 00
191700 1823N 10404W 6809 03356 0102 +054 -004 164041 041 036 009 03
191730 1823N 10404W 6809 03356 0096 +047 -010 164035 036 033 007 03
$$
;

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231926
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 39 20090623
191800 1822N 10401W 6302 03991 0098 +027 -018 166034 034 032 006 03
191830 1821N 10359W 6065 04306 0091 +009 -027 165033 034 032 006 03
191900 1821N 10357W 5835 04593 0056 -001 -035 164033 034 032 007 03
191930 1821N 10356W 5659 04844 0035 -006 -044 175030 032 029 008 03
192000 1822N 10354W 5483 05109 0224 -015 -051 185031 031 034 006 03
192030 1823N 10352W 5319 05351 0238 -026 -055 187033 033 033 006 00
192100 1824N 10350W 5163 05587 0255 -035 -058 188031 032 034 006 00
192130 1825N 10348W 5013 05823 0270 -044 -058 185030 031 034 005 03
192200 1826N 10346W 4859 06074 0289 -049 -059 184030 031 033 006 03
192230 1827N 10344W 4719 06304 0306 -057 -059 171027 029 036 006 03
192300 1828N 10342W 4578 06538 0319 -077 -077 161024 024 038 007 01
192330 1829N 10341W 4453 06741 0327 -095 +999 158025 026 036 006 05
192400 1830N 10339W 4340 06940 0339 -105 +999 162026 026 040 001 05
192430 1831N 10337W 4245 07106 0346 -112 +999 162025 026 999 999 05
192500 1832N 10335W 4135 07263 0275 -122 +999 158025 026 999 999 05
192530 1833N 10333W 4052 06922 4880 -130 +999 158027 028 999 999 05
192600 1834N 10331W 3967 07317 0066 -136 +999 154029 030 999 999 05
192630 1835N 10330W 3908 07363 4902 -144 +999 154029 030 999 999 05
192700 1836N 10328W 3831 06988 4580 -154 +999 152027 028 999 999 05
192730 1837N 10326W 3768 07473 4867 -161 +999 154028 028 999 999 05
$$
;

[RL3AO]

UZPN13 KNHC 231927
XXAA 73197 99184 71046 04784 99000 24600 14565 00504 ///// /////
92678 20204 16578 85408 18207 18067 70061 11456 17052 88999 77999
31313 09608 81907
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 11
62626 SPL 1848N10465W 1911 MBL WND 16076 AEV 20800 DLM WND 17063
999697 WL150 15067 081 REL 1840N10464W 190701 SPG 1847N10465W 191
105 =
XXBB 73198 99184 71046 04784 00000 24600 11927 20204 22850 18207
33711 13240 44697 11056
21212 00000 14565 11991 15062 22984 15573 33976 16574 44970 16586
55964 16081 66948 16581 77942 16084 88925 16578 99920 18085 11900
17571 22882 17572 33874 17568 44850 18067 55781 16553 66697 17053
31313 09608 81907
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 11
62626 SPL 1848N10465W 1911 MBL WND 16076 AEV 20800 DLM WND 17063
999697 WL150 15067 081 REL 1840N10464W 190701 SPG 1847N10465W 191
105 =
;


Hurricane Andres?

[RL3AO]

000
UZPN13 KNHC 231920
XXAA 73197 99184 71050 04785 99988 27409 13005 00611 ///// /////
92580 23402 15503 85317 19603 17505 70987 14659 17003 88999 77999
31313 09608 81901
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 10
62626 SPL 1839N10497W 1905 MBL WND 14003 AEV 20800 DLM WND 15002
987697 WL150 13004 081 REL 1839N10497W 190100 SPG 1839N10497W 190
418 =
XXBB 73198 99184 71050 04785 00988 27409 11850 19603 22823 18209
33790 20056 44768 19457 55708 16257 66697 14059
21212 00988 13005 11868 16502 22850 17505 33697 17005
31313 09608 81901
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 10
62626 SPL 1839N10497W 1905 MBL WND 14003 AEV 20800 DLM WND 15002
987697 WL150 13004 081 REL 1839N10497W 190100 SPG 1839N10497W 190
418 =
;

[RL3AO]

UZPN13 KNHC 231932
XXAA 73197 99184 71046 04784 99000 24407 16066 00500 ///// /////
92682 21414 17572 85414 18208 17067 70063 10045 17055 88999 77999
31313 09608 81907
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 12
62626 SPL 1847N10462W 1911 MBL WND 16571 AEV 20800 DLM WND 17064
999697 WL150 16070 089 REL 1840N10461W 190729 SPG 1846N10462W 191
057 =
XXBB 73198 99184 71046 04784 00000 24407 11850 18208 22732 13003
33715 12226 44697 09449
21212 00000 16066 11981 16573 22850 17067 33697 17556
31313 09608 81907
61616 AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 12
62626 SPL 1847N10462W 1911 MBL WND 16571 AEV 20800 DLM WND 17064
999697 WL150 16070 089 REL 1840N10461W 190729 SPG 1846N10462W 191
057 =
;

[RL3AO]

URPN15 KNHC 231936
AF306 0102E ANDRES HDOB 40 20090623
192800 1839N 10324W 3707 07502 4714 -171 +999 156026 027 999 999 05
192830 1840N 10322W 3645 07026 4231 -178 +999 157028 029 999 999 05
192900 1841N 10320W 3591 07192 4188 -186 +999 160028 028 999 999 05
192930 1842N 10318W 3530 07089 4070 -193 +999 160029 029 999 999 05
193000 1843N 10316W 3472 06949 0999 -198 +999 157029 029 999 999 05
193030 1844N 10314W 3424 07337 4160 -205 +999 157033 035 999 999 05
193100 1845N 10313W 3373 07753 4398 -214 +999 158035 036 999 999 05
193130 1846N 10311W 3322 07912 4424 -224 +999 157035 035 999 999 05
193200 1847N 10309W 3273 07989 4337 -235 +999 158033 034 999 999 05
193230 1848N 10307W 3231 07762 4087 -242 +999 158032 032 999 999 05
193300 1849N 10305W 3189 07226 0999 -249 +999 158033 033 999 999 05
193330 1851N 10303W 3155 06983 0999 -257 +999 160033 033 999 999 05
193400 1852N 10301W 3146 07036 0999 -260 +999 162033 033 999 999 05
193430 1853N 10258W 3144 07312 0999 -260 +999 165034 035 999 999 05
193500 1854N 10256W 3147 07940 4283 -260 +999 167035 035 999 999 05
193530 1855N 10254W 3146 08568 4672 -262 +999 167035 035 999 999 05
193600 1857N 10252W 3147 08597 4786 -262 +999 165033 034 999 999 05
193630 1858N 10249W 3140 08903 0014 -261 +999 167031 032 999 999 05
193700 1859N 10247W 3070 09050 0065 -271 +999 166028 029 999 999 05
193730 1901N 10245W 3006 09390 0244 -283 +999 166026 027 999 999 05
$$
;


Fix over.

[RL3AO]

URPN12 KNHC 231937
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022009
A. 23/19:01:00Z
B. 18 deg 23 min N
104 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2988 m
D. 67 kt
E. 255 deg 10 nm
F. 021 deg 62 kt
G. 275 deg 23 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 8 C / 3043 m
J. 15 C / 3051 m
K. 4 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0102E ANDRES OB 09
MAX FL WIND 62 KT W QUAD 18:53:50Z
;

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track upgrades to Hurricane at 65 kts

EP, 02, 2009062318, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1048W, 65, 988, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

First Hurricane of Eastern Pacific Basin in 2009

NHC says it was a hurricane this morning.

WTPZ32 KNHC 232054
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ANDRES IS A HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN TELMO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ANDRES WILL CONTINUE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR
75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH ANDRES HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY...WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.6N 105.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

925
WTPZ22 KNHC 232052
TCMEP2
HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
2100 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO PUNTO TELMO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 105.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 105.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 106.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.9N 107.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.4N 110.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 105.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

424
WTPZ42 KNHC 232056
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE SFMR ON THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK SURFACE
WINDS OF 63 KT AND 67 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER...
RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT LESS...TWO DROPSONDES RELEASED EAST OF THE CENTER ALSO
MEASURED ROUGHLY 65 KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH SUPPORT THE SFMR
MEASUREMENTS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS ANDRES IS BEING UPGRADED
TO A HURRICANE AND IT WAS POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS
MORNING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANDRES WILL NOT
STRENGTHEN ANY MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH LAND INTERACTION THAT THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CENTER
JUST OFF THE COAST AND ASSUMES THAT ANDRES WILL TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPDATED
FORECAST IS CLOSE THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 12-24 HOURS...THEN
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND BAMM...AND BAMS THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.6N 105.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 106.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 107.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.7N 109.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.4N 110.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Macrocane]

Finally, and NHC accepts that this morning Andres could have been stronger.

[CrazyC83]

I do agree now that it was likely 75 kt overnight. Here is what I think the BT should look like (red - more intense, green - less intense)

ANDRES, EP, E, , , , , 02, 2009, HU, O, 2009062018, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, EP022009
EP, 02, 2009061918, , BEST, 0, 152N, 957W, 20, 1007, DB
EP, 02, 2009062000, , BEST, 0, 154N, 966W, 20, 1006, DB
EP, 02, 2009062006, , BEST, 0, 153N, 976W, 20, 1006, DB
EP, 02, 2009062012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 983W, 25, 1005, DB
EP, 02, 2009062018, , BEST, 0, 148N, 988W, 25, 1005, DB
EP, 02, 2009062100, , BEST, 0, 147N, 993W, 25, 1004, DB
EP, 02, 2009062106, , BEST, 0, 146N, 998W, 25, 1004, DB
EP, 02, 2009062112, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1005W, 25, 1003, DB
EP, 02, 2009062118, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1012W, 30, 1002, TD
EP, 02, 2009062200, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1015W, 35, 999, TS
EP, 02, 2009062206, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1017W, 45, 997, TS
EP, 02, 2009062212, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 50, 995, TS
EP, 02, 2009062218, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1022W, 55, 993, TS
EP, 02, 2009062300, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1027W, 65, 989, HU
EP, 02, 2009062306, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1031W, 75, 984, HU
EP, 02, 2009062312, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1040W, 70, 986, HU
EP, 02, 2009062318, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1048W, 65, 988, HU

[HURAKAN]

Andrés takes the title as one of the worse-looking hurricanes in history!!!

[CrazyC83]

It probably isn't a hurricane anymore.

[cycloneye]

Still a Hurricane at the 5 PM PDT Intermediate Advisory

WTPZ32 KNHC 232336
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

...CENTER OF ANDRES PASSING WEST OF MANZANILLO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES...110 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES WILL CONTINUE
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES...110 KM. MANZANILLO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 46 MPH...76 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.0N 105.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Will be downgraded to Tropical Storm at the next advisory.

EP, 02, 2009062400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1056W, 60, 990, TS

[MGC]

Nice burst of convection. Perhaps Andres can hold onto hurricnae intensity for a bit longer......MGC

[HURAKAN]

México got lucky with this one.