EPAC: Tropical Depression BLANCA (03E)

[HURAKAN]

Far from becoming better organized, at least at the surface.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Its getting late for it to develop as stable air is not far to its west.

[cycloneye]

453
ABPZ20 KNHC 052345
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

818
WHXX01 KMIA 060053
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC MON JUL 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942009) 20090706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090706 0000 090706 1200 090707 0000 090707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 110.7W 17.5N 112.9W 18.3N 115.0W 18.8N 117.0W
BAMD 16.5N 110.7W 17.2N 112.7W 17.8N 114.8W 18.3N 116.9W
BAMM 16.5N 110.7W 17.3N 112.8W 18.0N 114.8W 18.5N 116.7W
LBAR 16.5N 110.7W 17.1N 113.1W 17.9N 115.8W 18.6N 118.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090708 0000 090709 0000 090710 0000 090711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 118.9W 19.8N 122.4W 19.7N 125.7W 19.3N 128.9W
BAMD 18.8N 119.0W 19.7N 123.0W 20.9N 126.5W 21.9N 129.4W
BAMM 19.0N 118.7W 19.8N 122.3W 20.5N 125.7W 20.9N 128.9W
LBAR 19.6N 121.1W 22.2N 125.1W 26.1N 126.8W 30.1N 125.6W
SHIP 36KTS 30KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 36KTS 30KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 110.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 108.6W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 106.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

06/0000 UTC 16.3N 110.8W T1.5/1.5 94E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

94E doesn't appear to be in a hurry to develop and the clock is ticking.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
03005 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES OF 1007 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 16N110W...OR ABOUT 425
MILES S OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LOW HAS ONLY SHOWN
SLIGHT ORGANIZATION IN ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THIS
MORNING. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER CONSISTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N108W TO
17N107W TO 19N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W-111W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N115W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM SUN DEPICTED THE A LARGE SWATH OF 20-30
KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT OR MON AS IT MOVES WNW ABOUT 12 KT. IT IS FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR 18N115W BY MON EVENING...AND TO NEAR 19N119W BY TUE
EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF 20-30 KT IN THE NE QUADRANT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. WILL BUILD SEAS HIGHER IN THE FORECAST
(IN THE 9-14 FT RANGE) THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE. THERE COULD EASILY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE SEA STATE FORECAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.

[HURAKAN]

T-storms developing over or near the center.

[Macrocane]

Convection always increases at night but decreases with daylight (at least in this season), hopefully this time will be different and we will have something more than an invest to watch tomorrow..

[HURAKAN]

06/0600 UTC 16.4N 111.0W T2.0/2.0 94E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

At this moment it looks great.

[senorpepr]

Looking much better. Even so after the 06Z analysis which put it at T2.0. 00Z plot from NHC has 25 kt and 1007 hPa--down 1 hPa from six hours previous.

I did an analysis of the system at 10Z and didn't yield much change (around T2.0). If anything, it solidifies the reading from earlier. We'll see if this gets tagged for renumbering (to 03E) later today.

[cycloneye]

Code Red


ABPZ20 KNHC 061135
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM COULD
BE FORMING ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[cyclonic chronic]

quikscat has a closed surface circulation. 94E could be finally gettin its act together

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[senorpepr]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

94E has been renumbered to 03E. NRL has Blanca up... Expecting TS...

[cycloneye]

Special Advisory for newly formed Tropical Storm Blanca


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 061225
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...

AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN


WTPZ23 KNHC 061222
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
1230 UTC MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 06/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 06/1230Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

087
WTPZ43 KNHC 061238
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
BOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E
IMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER... BLANCA SHOULD
REACH SUB-26C IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/9. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA ON A
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1230Z 17.1N 111.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Macrocane]

Unbelievable, I didn't see this coming! It looks really great and healthy, I thought it was no going to be more than a TD it made my day.

[CrazyC83]

Eye-like feature? Probably quite a bit more than 35 kt with that...