EPAC: Tropical Depression BLANCA (03E)

[senorpepr]

Eye-like feature? Probably quite a bit more than 35 kt with that...

Probably not anymore than 35 kt. Nothing suggests the like. The Dvorak estimate I just completed yielded about 35 kt as well. Just because it has a "eye-life feature" does not mean too much when the rest of its satellite appearance (to include microwave imagery) suggests minimal tropical storm strength.

[Macrocane]

We will see what the common advisory says, if it is 35 kt I agree about the max intensity forecast because shear is moderate and Sea Surface Temperatures will decrease. If it is stronger and at least 45 kt I think it could become a hurricane. Just my unofficial and humble opinion.

[senorpepr]

Not going to run wx chart floaters for 03E. No observations will make for a waste of bandwidth.


EDIT: Of course, you can grab Tweets on Blanca from both Storm2k_org and myself.


http://twitter.com/storm2k_org
http://twitter.com/senorpepr

[HURAKAN]

You gotta love the tropics!

[HURAKAN]

The famous "eye-feature"

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep032009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200907061302
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
BLANCA, EP, E, , , , , 03, 2009, TS, O, 2009070418, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, EP032009
EP, 03, 2009070318, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1004W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 03, 2009070400, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1013W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 03, 2009070406, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1024W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 03, 2009070412, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1035W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 03, 2009070418, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1047W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 03, 2009070500, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1060W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 03, 2009070506, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1073W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 03, 2009070512, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1086W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 03, 2009070518, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1098W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 03, 2009070600, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1104W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 03, 2009070606, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1110W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D,
EP, 03, 2009070612, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1117W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 30, 50, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BLANCA, D,

At 6z it has been upgraded to depression.

[CrazyC83]

Notice it says "Blanca" at 06Z, when it should say "Three" as it would have been Tropical Depression Three-E at that point.

[cycloneye]

8 AM PDT Advisory

WTPZ23 KNHC 061441
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 118.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.1N 121.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 112.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN


WTPZ33 KNHC 061442
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

...BLANCA STRENGTHENS...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST OR ABOUT 410
MILES...665 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO WEAKENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 112.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

076
WTPZ43 KNHC 061444
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BLANCA IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. IN ADDITION...A LONG BANDING FEATURE EXTENDS WELL SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE LATEST DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 2.5 AND CONFIRM THE RECENT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. BASED UPON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/09...WITH RECENT
FIXES SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST 12-24
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A BROAD BUT FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA
ON A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SUBTLE TURN TO THE WEST
EXPECTED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

BLANCA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 28C WATER IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR-TERM. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REACH SUB-26C WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL STEADILY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE
STORM. EASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A HALT IN
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.3N 112.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 17.8N 113.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.5N 118.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 20.1N 121.2W 25 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful system.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look excellent.

[cycloneye]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2009 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 17:27:14 N Lon : 112:27:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 3.0 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -52.8C Cloud Region Temp : -59.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.80 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 17:15:00 N Lon: 112:03:00 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt03E.html

[Macrocane]

Cloud tops are warming and the strongest convection seems to be a little dicplaced from the center. I think that it will not intensify as quickly as it was forecasted.

[senorpepr]

Luis, the 18Z ADT analysis has the Dvorak estimate to T2.8 (41 kt 1002 hPa).

[senorpepr]

WTPZ33 KNHC 062028
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
200 PM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...630 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD WEST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THEREAFTER...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT CLARION ISLAND
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 40 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.0N 112.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN


WTPZ43 KNHC 062029
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
200 PM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

BLANCA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY SINCE THIS MORNING.
MICROWAVE FIXES DURING THE DAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY NORTH OF
DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES...INDICATING THAT THE VORTEX MAY NOT BE
VERTICALLY ALIGNED. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECENTLY WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE DISTRIBUTION HAS SHRUNK...
POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. IN SPITE OF
THE MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH
THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 AND 3.0...RESPECTIVELY...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THERE IS NOW LESS DOUBT WITH REGARD TO THE INITIAL MOTION...WITH
RECENT FIXES INDICATING 305/09. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BLANCA ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA . THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND STEER BLANCA ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
A FURTHER BENDING OF THE TRACK TO THE WEST ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

EVEN THOUGH THE ORGANIZATION OF BLANCA HAS NOT IMPROVED
FURTHER...THE STORM IS STILL MOVING OVER 27-28C WATER IN A
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
REACH SUB-26C WATER JUST AFTER 12 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE
IN SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM. THIS...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THEREAFTER...WITH THE RAPID DROP-OFF IN SSTS...BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING AND BECOME A REMNANT FLOW BETWEEN 72-96 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 18.0N 112.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 115.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.2N 118.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 121.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[cyclonic chronic]

i liked this system from the begining. though it does have an "eye like" feature, it looks too thin to be close to hurricane strength. but it could be a 55kt t.s., i wish there was more t.c. recon in the east pacific. we'd have alot more data to anylize when the atl. is quiet!!

[Cookie]

Beautiful system.

all the waiting for the next system was worth it to see this

[senorpepr]

I think too many of you are banking on the phrase "eye-like feature" and using it too literally...

[HURAKAN]

Feeling the blues?

[HURAKAN]

630
WHXX01 KMIA 070042
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC TUE JUL 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA (EP032009) 20090707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090707 0000 090707 1200 090708 0000 090708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 113.4W 18.9N 115.2W 19.6N 116.8W 20.1N 118.3W
BAMD 18.0N 113.4W 18.7N 115.3W 19.4N 117.3W 20.0N 119.2W
BAMM 18.0N 113.4W 18.8N 115.2W 19.6N 117.1W 20.2N 118.8W
LBAR 18.0N 113.4W 18.5N 115.3W 19.4N 117.5W 20.4N 119.7W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 51KTS 47KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 51KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090709 0000 090710 0000 090711 0000 090712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 119.8W 21.6N 122.8W 23.0N 125.7W 24.4N 128.3W
BAMD 20.8N 121.2W 23.0N 124.6W 26.6N 127.0W 31.3N 128.7W
BAMM 20.9N 120.6W 22.6N 124.1W 24.8N 127.0W 27.4N 129.1W
LBAR 21.6N 122.0W 24.9N 125.7W 31.2N 127.1W 41.2N 119.2W
SHIP 40KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 40KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 113.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 111.7W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 110.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

027
WTPZ43 KNHC 070235
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 PM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CORE OF BLANCA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER-DEFINED CURVED BANDING FEATURES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. BLANCA
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT ITS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION IS CLOSING QUICKLY AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRAVERSE SSTS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES C IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THUS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING BY 24 HOURS...
AND THE SYSTEM BEING REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
COOLER WATERS...AND A POSSIBLY MORE STABLE THAN EXPECTED AIR
MASS...BLANCA'S DEMISE COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

BASED ON A BLEND OF FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/9. THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT. A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD
PRODUCE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUALLY
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE BLANCA
BECOMES A VERY WEAK CYCLONE...A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS
LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.2N 113.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 18.8N 115.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 116.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.0N 118.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 20.4N 119.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 20.8N 122.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 21.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


318
WTPZ33 KNHC 070234
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
800 PM PDT MON JUL 06 2009

...BLANCA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST OR ABOUT 410
MILES...660 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BLANCA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.2N 113.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH