WPAC: TD SOUDELOR (05W/PAGASA Gorio)

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 20.3N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 20.8N 107.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131200UTC 22.0N 104.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[senorpepr]

WTJP21 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0905 SOUDELOR (0905) 996 HPA AT 20.3N 112.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 20.9N 107.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 22.0N 104.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


WTPQ20 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 20.3N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 20.9N 107.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131800UTC 22.0N 104.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[theavocado]

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 20.0N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.2N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.4N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 111.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W
(SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE
CENTER AND QUICKLY BECOMING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON AN 35 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND FROM AN 1104Z QUIKSCAT PASS THAT
SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF 30-35 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A
WELL DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING SUBJECTED TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
IT NEARS THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR
TO THE NORTH AND IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NEAR HAINAN ISLAND AND
CONTINUES TO BE SUBJECTED TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//

[theavocado]

Looks like this thing is fluctuating right on the edge of TD/TC. Japan brought their Dvorak down, and JT went up. The QS and Windsat images look as if its still holding on despite the shear. Models seem to lose it over the Gulf of Tonkin, however. Land interaction and shear will eventually win out.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Landfall appears to have occurred.

[P.K.]

Looks like this thing is fluctuating right on the edge of TD/TC. Japan brought their Dvorak down,

They've had it at T1.5 all of Sat and also for the first fix for Sunday. I can only assume there must have been a direct ob of TS winds as they don't usually upgrade unless their sat fixes are at T2.5.

[theavocado]

They've had it at T1.5 all of Sat and also for the first fix for Sunday. I can only assume there must have been a direct ob of TS winds as they don't usually upgrade unless their sat fixes are at T2.5.

Ah, you're correct. I must have gotten confused, possibly with NESDIS.

[theavocado]

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 110.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 110.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.6N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.8N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.1N 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 109.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W
(SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 05W HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND
130300Z.

[theavocado]

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (SOUDELOR)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (SOUDELOR) HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PHILIPPINE
SEA INTO CHINA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT
IN ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. TD 05W HAS CONTINUED TO HAVE INCREASED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS
DECREASED BY 5 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, BUT HAS BEEN STEADY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER CHINA CONTINUES TO CAUSE THE
STRONG SHEARING OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. AS TD 05W TRACKS OVER THE
LEIZHOU PENINSULA AND GULF OF TONKIN, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND CONTINUED HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED UPON MAKING
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

[theavocado]

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 20.8N 108.5E FAIR
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 21.2N 104.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[senorpepr]

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 108.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 108.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.9N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.2N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 108.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155
NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TD 05W HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED FROM CONVECTION AND
HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES VIETNAM. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS LOST ITS SYMMETRIC SHAPE, AND HAS BECOME
DEFORMED. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AND THE
EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET.//

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0905 SOUDELOR (0905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 20.9N 107.8E FAIR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 21.7N 103.5E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

Hong Kong:


Japan (Official):


JTWC:


Each agency has a different landfall point.

[Cookie]

which is likely to be more accurate?

[senorpepr]

Soudelor inland over N Vietnam.


WWJP25 RJTD 121200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 39N 131E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 131E TO 39N 135E 37N 139E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 131E TO 35N 127E 33N 121E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 121E TO 32N 116E 31N 110E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 53N 175E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 20.0N 125.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N 137E 35N 141E 41N 142E 47N 153E 55N 163E 60N 166E 60N 180E 32N 180E 30N 150E 32N 140E 34N 137E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 35N 156E EAST 10 KT.
FORMER TROPICAL STORM 0905 SOUDELOR (0905) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 21N 107E WEST 20 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 29N 145E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 39N 157E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 147E TO 33N 151E 35N 156E 36N 159E 36N 164E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=