EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[HURAKAN]

It hasn't got the large eye but it does have some features doesnt it!

I know it's not "a" but it has some features for people to usually refer to it as "a."

[Iceman56]

On the visible loop, what do you not see this morning, that we saw a lot of the other day?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/flash-vis.html

Outflow boundaries! There was a surge of much richer, high theta-e air on the south side of the cyclone yesterday. If you look on the northeast part of the loop, though, you will see some OB's in the drier air farther to the NE.

[Macrocane]

It hasn't got the large eye but it does have some features doesnt it!

I know it's not "a" but it has some features for people to usually refer to it as "a."

Yes the eye has to be wider to be an "a" hurricane...I'm not going to say that word again cause I did a few days ago and found that it is kind of polemic.

[CrazyC83]

Just by a visual look, I'd bump it up to 90-95 kt for the 1800Z best track point. My guess for the pressure is 974mb, since smaller storms tend to have higher pressures than normally expected.

[WmE]

Just by a visual look, I'd bump it up to 90-95 kt for the 1800Z best track point. My guess for the pressure is 974mb, since smaller storms tend to have higher pressures than normally expected.

Yeah I agree. I'd give it a T5.0 rating.

[Derek Ortt]

looks more like a 5.5 to me

[HURAKAN]

I agree with Derek.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track=80kts

EP, 04, 2009071418, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1279W, 80, 978, HU,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

I think it's stronger than 80 knots.

[HURAKAN]

823
WHXX01 KMIA 141833
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC TUE JUL 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (EP042009) 20090714 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090714 1800 090715 0600 090715 1800 090716 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 127.9W 10.2N 130.0W 10.6N 132.3W 10.9N 134.8W
BAMD 10.0N 127.9W 10.2N 129.4W 10.5N 131.0W 10.6N 132.6W
BAMM 10.0N 127.9W 10.1N 129.6W 10.4N 131.4W 10.7N 133.2W
LBAR 10.0N 127.9W 10.4N 129.1W 10.9N 130.6W 11.4N 132.2W
SHIP 80KTS 85KTS 83KTS 79KTS
DSHP 80KTS 85KTS 83KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090716 1800 090717 1800 090718 1800 090719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 137.3W 11.3N 143.5W 11.6N 150.9W 11.9N 158.8W
BAMD 10.6N 134.5W 10.3N 138.9W 9.7N 143.9W 8.7N 149.4W
BAMM 10.8N 135.2W 10.5N 139.9W 10.3N 145.5W 10.0N 151.8W
LBAR 11.8N 133.9W 12.2N 138.4W 12.1N 143.6W 11.0N 149.3W
SHIP 74KTS 62KTS 55KTS 44KTS
DSHP 74KTS 62KTS 55KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 127.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 126.9W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 125.6W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 978MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

[Derek Ortt]

I think its clearly stronger than 80KT

The ADT is not going to work properly with an eye this small

[CrazyC83]

14/1800 UTC 10.0N 127.9W T5.0/5.0 CARLOS -- East Pacific

Supports a 90 kt intensity. I'd go with 95 kt given the small size and the performance of Dvorak with tiny storms.

[Derek Ortt]

TAFB also still at 4.5. However, the ADT numbers may spike very soon as the eye is warming on the latest sat imagery

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a funny picture..

its about the size of the big island.. lol out flow makes it look a little bigger.. lol

That thing is crazy small .. probably up there on the list of smallest TC's
tracy was the smallest i believe ?

[Aric Dunn]

it would be like a one county evacuation were it be bearing down on the lower 48 ... (exaggeration of course )

[Macrocane]

I think that Marcos (last year) was smallest than Tracy though it was only a tropical storm and Tracy was a much more powerful cyclone.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah marco was smallest .. but not a hurricane... carlos TS winds are 45 miles
tracy was 50 and marcos was 12 !!

[somethingfunny]

That entire hurricane can fit inside the Gulf of California. It is beautiful though.

[HURAKAN]

Looking like a major hurricane? "You betcha"

[neospaceblue]

There is no way possible that this is a Cat 1. I'm thinking they might go with 95-100 kts at 2 PM PDT.

Also, didn't Polo have a 10-20 mile radius of TS-force winds?