WPAC: TY MOLAVE 0906 (07W / PAGASA Isang)

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 564
WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0906 MOLAVE (0906)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 21.8N 116.5E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 23.8N 111.4E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Closer to landfall.

[HURAKAN]

18/0830 UTC 22.0N 116.6E T4.5/4.5 MOLAVE -- West Pacific

Lets see if the JTWC upgrades Molave to typhoon in the next advisory.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0906 MOLAVE (0906) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 22.3N 116.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 24.4N 110.7E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Derek Ortt]

JTs initial intensity makes as much sense as some of Great One's to be honest

Someone please tell me HOW THIS HAS WEAKENED TO 55KT

[senorpepr]

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 22.3N 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.2N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.8N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 115.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS AND HAS INTENSIFIED
FROM A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS AND LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY FROM HONG KONG DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE
TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HONG KONG AFTER
TAU 06 THEN TRACK INLAND INTO CHINA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, AND
190300Z.//

[JTE50]

Here in Shenzhen we are keeping a close eye on whether Molave keeps a west to wnw track, bringing it very close. Although this is a WPAC storm, the time that the members take to keep the info current is really appreciated. Storm2K is my main source of info on this and all WPAC storms, and the work of the members posting here is great. Thanks to all!

Ni Hao, where are you in relation to HK ?

[beaufort12]

Here in Shenzhen we are keeping a close eye on whether Molave keeps a west to wnw track, bringing it very close. Although this is a WPAC storm, the time that the members take to keep the info current is really appreciated. Storm2K is my main source of info on this and all WPAC storms, and the work of the members posting here is great. Thanks to all!

Ni Hao, where are you in relation to HK ?

20 miles/32 km north of hk. waiting for the eye, looks like it might pass right over here. haven't seen that since hurricane betsy in 1965. been a long wait, but hopefully i can say i was there for the eye of both an atlantic and wpac storm.

[JTE50]

well, looks like the eye is coming right at you beaufort. Any preparation by the locals for the Typhoon? I know it's night time over there and wonder if it caught folks by surprise. I'm also wondering if you can travel freely between mainland China and HK? Just curious.

[JTE50]

Latest Radar from Hong Kong.

[CrazyC83]

Any surface data in that part of the world?

[JTE50]

Any surface data in that part of the world?

The eye will probably go right over here. Pressure dropping fast.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/ZGSZ.html

[senorpepr]

Any surface data in that part of the world?

Updates hourly: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=105861

[beaufort12]

The center's just passed over, according to radar. The eye filled in prior to getting here. Of course the rain's been torrential. The last pressure reading was 29.15 and falling. HK reports the following:
In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at
Tap Mun and Lau Fau Shan were 96 and 84 kilometres per hour
with maximum gusts 148 and 104 kilometres per hour
respectively.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0906 MOLAVE (0906) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 22.6N 114.2E FAIR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 24.5N 108.9E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[vbhoutex]

Here in Shenzhen we are keeping a close eye on whether Molave keeps a west to wnw track, bringing it very close. Although this is a WPAC storm, the time that the members take to keep the info current is really appreciated. Storm2K is my main source of info on this and all WPAC storms, and the work of the members posting here is great. Thanks to all!

It is people like you posting things like this that makes the efforts EVERYONE at S2K puts forth worth it. If we have helped and/or saved one person ANYWHERE then anything we do is worth it as we are fulfilling our mission to be the most current and correct on the net weatherwise, especially in the tropics. Thank you for the kudo's.

Now back to the topic of this thread.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Video from ground zero - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjHKbvubZJI

[Calasanjy]

Molave has made its unpleasant appearance in Hong Kong. The last IR image looks pretty impressive, do you believe that the 65 knots in the most recent JTWC advisory are high enough? The video posted by Typhoon Hunter shows some pretty intense, however not extremely damaging, winds.

[Cookie]

Video from ground zero - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjHKbvubZJI

great video thanks for sharing!

[JTE50]

Good work James - I see they left the lights on for you!