WPAC: TY MOLAVE 0906 (07W / PAGASA Isang)

[theavocado]

Nice little closed circulation in the monsoon trough south of Guam. It looks like it picked up the energy left by 90W to the east as it dissipated.

[theavocado]

Looks like it made it up to FAIR, but brought back down as it seems to be embedded back in the trough. NOGAPS (which is being real aggressive everywhere) is still looking for development, however.



SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112300Z-120600ZJUL2009//
<break>
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
141.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 137.2E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A REGION OF
POORLY CONSOLIDATED PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 112028Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 10
TO 15 KT WINDS AROUND A WEAK LLCC EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE LLCC IS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) WITH
A CROSS-EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING
HAMPERED BY THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN PARA
1.B.(2). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
<break>

[senorpepr]

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
<snip>
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 137.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
<snip>

[Iune]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued By JTWC
WTPN21 PGTW 132130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
250 NM RADIUS OF 8.0N 132.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN MICRONESIA FOR
OVER 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 132.2 E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131211Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-KNOT
UNFLAGGED WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH CENTER
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A DEVELOPING LLCC IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A
131722Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPENING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HELPING TO PROVIDE EXHAUST
INTO THE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142130Z.//
NNNN

[Iune]

Now PAGASA designates it TD Isang
Tropical Depression "Isang"
PAGASA Track as of 2 p.m. ---- Satellite Picture at 4 p.m., 14 July


Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "Isang"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 14 July 2009
The Low Pressure Area East of Northern Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "ISANG".
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 555 kms east of Northern Mindanao
Coordinates: 9.4°N 131.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center
Movement: west-northwest at 19 km/h
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Wednesday afternoon:
285 kms East of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Thursday afternoon:
180 kms East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Friday afternoon:
285 kms East of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 285 kms West of Iba, Zambales (15.5°N, 117.0°E). This disturbance will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over the western section of Luzon and Visayas.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 142130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132121ZJUL09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 131.6E TO 15.3N 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 142100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 131.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 132.2 E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL
FLARING OVER A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
141648Z 89 GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT INTENSITY HAS WANED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) PREVIOUSLY HELPING TO PROVIDE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE IS ANOTHER TUTT
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THAT COULD HELP TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER POLEWARD CHANNEL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
STILL FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATING MICROWAVE
SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152130Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 131E NNW SLOWLY.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.3N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.1N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.6N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.4N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.2N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 127.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TD 07W
HAS INCREASED CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS CONSOLIDATING AROUND A
DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 150442Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS
WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)AND JUST SOUTHWEST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE TD IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TOWARDS LUZON STRAIT WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS FAVORABLE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UP TO TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS ON ITS WESTWARD TURN TOWARDS HONG
KONG. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE TRACK FORECAST
COVERING A SWATH FROM NORTHERN LUZON TO CENTRAL TAIWAN. THIS
FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72 THEN SOUTH AND
AHEAD OF CONSENSUS PAST TAU 72. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 142121Z JUL 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 142130 ). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

[beaufort12]

wdpn31 pgtw 151500
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 07w warning nr 02//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
A. Tropical depression (td) 07w (seven) has slowed down in its
northwestward track from 20 knots to 10 knots. Animated multispectral
imagery shows deep convection with multiple bands consolidating around
a distinct low level circulation center (LLCC). Current position is
based on animated infrared imagery and a 151049z SSMI/S microwave pass
with a fair degree of confidence. Current intensity is based on Dvorak
estimates from pgtw and knes. This is corroborated by unflagged winds
25-30 knots on the southeastern rim of the LLCC as shown on a 150931z
Quikscat pass. Upper level analysis indicates the system is under low
vertical wind shear (vws) and just southwest of an anticyclone which
is enhancing poleward outflow. The TD is tracking along the southwest
periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge (str) to the
northeast.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. The forecast reasoning is established in this bulletin.
B. TD 07w is expected to continue tracking northwestward along the
southwestern periphery of the str described in para 2.A. The system
will intensify to a tropical storm, sustained up to tau 72, with good
poleward outflow aloft and favorable along-track ocean heat content.
C. After tau 72, an extension of the str to the north will steer
TD 07w on a more westward track. The system will gradually weaken as
it encounters higher vws then make landfall near Hong Kong before tau
120. Available numeric models are generally in agreement on the track
forecast with one outlier - ngpi - pulling the TD to the north into
northern Taiwan.
Forecast team: Bravo//

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.2N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.9N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.9N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 23.4N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 127.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 14.4N 127.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[HURAKAN]

Hong Kong:


Philippines:

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 35 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 14.7N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.8N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.2N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.2N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.9N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.5N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.6N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 23.1N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 124.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND
171500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Very strong convection.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 446
WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0906 MOLAVE (0906)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 17.9N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 21.0N 120.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181800UTC 22.2N 116.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 191800UTC 22.3N 112.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Pretty much in agreement.