Looking very good.
WPAC: TY MOLAVE 0906 (07W / PAGASA Isang)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 123.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.4N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.5N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.4N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.8N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 122.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W
(MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 123.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.4N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.5N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.4N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.8N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 122.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W
(MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 000
WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0906 MOLAVE (0906)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.7N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 20.6N 119.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 190000UTC 22.3N 115.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200000UTC 22.6N 111.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0906 MOLAVE (0906)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.7N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 20.6N 119.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 190000UTC 22.3N 115.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200000UTC 22.6N 111.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
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Derek Ortt
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: WPAC: TS MOLAVE 0906 (07W / PAGASA Isang)
Outflow looks limited to the North judging from satellite picture above.
I wish this floater was aimed a little better, but I think I see outflow boundaries
I wish this floater was aimed a little better, but I think I see outflow boundaries
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: WPAC: TS MOLAVE 0906 (07W / PAGASA Isang)
Of course, all that area of -80ºC cloud tops says this isn't too sickly...
0 likes
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.5N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.6N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.7N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 122.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 07W CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS QUICKLY BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DEVELOPING TOWARD THE LLCC. AS
TS 07W TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF LUZON, THE INFLOW OF RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR (APPARENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS) HAS LED TO A
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER,
THIS HAS BEEN OFFSET BY INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS PRESENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) PRODUCTS INDICATE
THERE IS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP, WARM WATER BETWEEN LUZON AND TAIWAN
HELPING TO FUEL A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE
OHC WILL DECREASE AS TS 07W TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 36 AND QUICKLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, WITH FULL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.5N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.6N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.7N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 122.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 07W CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS QUICKLY BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DEVELOPING TOWARD THE LLCC. AS
TS 07W TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF LUZON, THE INFLOW OF RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR (APPARENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS) HAS LED TO A
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER,
THIS HAS BEEN OFFSET BY INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS PRESENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) PRODUCTS INDICATE
THERE IS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP, WARM WATER BETWEEN LUZON AND TAIWAN
HELPING TO FUEL A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE
OHC WILL DECREASE AS TS 07W TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 36 AND QUICKLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, WITH FULL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 722
WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0906 MOLAVE (0906)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 20.2N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 22.6N 117.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 190600UTC 23.6N 112.9E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0906 MOLAVE (0906)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 20.2N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 22.6N 117.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 190600UTC 23.6N 112.9E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.0N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.8N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 120.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.0N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.8N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 120.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE) HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TRACK SPEED FROM 09 KNOTS TO ITS CURRENT
SPEED OF 16 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 07W HAS SEEN A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FROM 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND ORGANIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 171005Z QUIKSCAT
PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC. DEEP CONVEC-
TION REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TS 07W,
HOWEVER, INFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS TEMPORARILY BEEN
HAMPERED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TS 07W REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRON-
MENT AND CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. INCREASED INTER-
ACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS THE
PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN THE RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND SLIGHT
SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE PAST 03
HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
EXTENDING INTO CHINA AS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. A REGION OF INCREASED
WARM WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL BRIEFLY
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY BRIEFLY REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH PRIOR TO
ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM STARTING
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. AS TS 07W TRACKS TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA,
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OHC WILL LEAD TO WEAK-
ENING. LANDFALL AT TAU 24 WILL QUICKLY CAUSE A BREAK-DOWN IN THE
LLCC STRUCTURE, WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48.
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK INTO COASTAL
REGION OF CHINA, NORTH OF HONG KONG. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TXLP,
WHICH TAKES A SHARPER NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS SHANGHAI VICE HONG
KONG. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF HONG KONG.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE) HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TRACK SPEED FROM 09 KNOTS TO ITS CURRENT
SPEED OF 16 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 07W HAS SEEN A RAPID
INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FROM 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND ORGANIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 171005Z QUIKSCAT
PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC. DEEP CONVEC-
TION REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TS 07W,
HOWEVER, INFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAS TEMPORARILY BEEN
HAMPERED DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TS 07W REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRON-
MENT AND CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. INCREASED INTER-
ACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS THE
PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN THE RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND SLIGHT
SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE PAST 03
HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
EXTENDING INTO CHINA AS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. A REGION OF INCREASED
WARM WATERS WITH A HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES WILL BRIEFLY
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE
FORECASTED INTENSITY BRIEFLY REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH PRIOR TO
ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM STARTING
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. AS TS 07W TRACKS TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA,
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OHC WILL LEAD TO WEAK-
ENING. LANDFALL AT TAU 24 WILL QUICKLY CAUSE A BREAK-DOWN IN THE
LLCC STRUCTURE, WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48.
MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK INTO COASTAL
REGION OF CHINA, NORTH OF HONG KONG. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TXLP,
WHICH TAKES A SHARPER NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS SHANGHAI VICE HONG
KONG. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF HONG KONG.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "ISANG" {MOLAVE}
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 17 July 2009
Tropical Storm "ISANG" continues to move further away from the country.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 265 kms North Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan or at
100 kms West Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.9°N, 121.1°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 17 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday evening:
460 kms Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Batanes
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Northern Cagayan
Babuyan Group
Calayan Group
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Rest of Cagayan
Kalinga
Abra
Mt. Province
Ilocos Sur
Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under storm warning signals #1 & #2 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the storm.
Tropical Storm "ISANG" enhances the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to frequent rains over Central and Southern Luzon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "ISANG" {MOLAVE}
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 17 July 2009
Tropical Storm "ISANG" continues to move further away from the country.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 265 kms North Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan or at
100 kms West Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.9°N, 121.1°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 17 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Saturday evening:
460 kms Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)
Batanes
Ilocos Norte
Apayao
Northern Cagayan
Babuyan Group
Calayan Group
Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
Rest of Cagayan
Kalinga
Abra
Mt. Province
Ilocos Sur
Residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under storm warning signals #1 & #2 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Those living along the coast under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the storm.
Tropical Storm "ISANG" enhances the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to frequent rains over Central and Southern Luzon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
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Derek Ortt
this is looking more like a 4.5 now as the banding eye becomes better defined.
Reality to JTWC, the shear analysis shows little shear. STIPS IS DEAD WRONG
I would not be surprised if this comes in at 80-95KT (1 minute of course... converting form 10 min to 1 min you would get a ~70KT initial intensity which is reasonable)
Reality to JTWC, the shear analysis shows little shear. STIPS IS DEAD WRONG
I would not be surprised if this comes in at 80-95KT (1 minute of course... converting form 10 min to 1 min you would get a ~70KT initial intensity which is reasonable)
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Derek Ortt
Re:
senorpepr wrote:The DT I'm getting is around T4.0
SSD's 21Z was T4.0 while ADT is T3.5.
I'm not convinced it'll develop that much in that little time. I'm leaning more toward 65-75 kt (1-min) prior to landfall.
I'm thinking its closer to 75KT now (though since the banding eye has disappeared again, maybe a 4.0 is a better number). I think we were starting at the different intensities (the JMA vs the JT)
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