ATL: INVEST (97L)

[wxman57]

there may be enough QG forcing for more than a weak frontal wave

Yeah, that's true. Could be a frontal low. But we're not talking about a tropical storm with hurricane potential.

[StormTracker]

OK, who's next???

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wouldn't anticipate any development within the next 24 hours. The greatest vorticity is currently situated immediately south of the Dominican Republic, Hispaniola. Yet, the majority of the convection in the vicinity of the low level vorticity lobe has been enhanced by the strong divergence between the low/mid levels. The strong mid level shear is the result of the deep tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) to the northeast of the system, as well as a pronounced 250 mb anticyclone to the southwest. These upper level features are quite apparent on GOES WV imagery. Initially, any possible developing surface reflection (surface low pressure area) will remain influenced by the shear within the next 24-28 hours. However, by 24 hours, changes in the environment will be occurring. Firstly, the well defined upper level anticyclone near the northern Bahamas will expand eastward and amplify ahead of a deepening mid/upper level shortwave over Manitoba. Consequently, the westerlies/northwesterlies that are currently coinciding with the location of the N Bahamas and W Atlantic will change to lighter southeasterlies at the low, mid, and upper levels. This environment was originally projected by the ECMWF, which consistently depicted medium/long range tropical cyclogenesis off the SE coast before the GFS even caught the development. Both models are currently consistent in regard to the development of a surface low off the NE Bahamas, followed by a track that parallels the Southeast. Based on the westerly steering ahead of the incoming shortwave, the system would remain off the SE and the East Coast of the United States. I think that the prospects of development are good, but I don't expect a system that exceeds moderate TS intensity.

Edited by Cycloneye to add disclaimer

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gif

OK, who's next???

That area is not the wave axis in association with 97L. Your wave is currently located over the central Bahamas and is projected to move westward into S FL without any significant development. If you examine the long range TAFB projections, they are consistent with the ECMWF/GFS solutions, both of which project cyclogenesis off the NE Bahamas in association with current 97L.

48 hr forecast shows fracturing wave axis of 97L near the Bahamas:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW_sm3.gif

72 hr forecast shows defined sfc low off the Carolinas:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

[cycloneye]

107
ABNT20 KNHC 212332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND DO NOT
FAVOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

It's sure doing a good job of surviving in consistently hostile conditions...

That's because it's a tropical wave. It can't get much weaker no matter how much shear hits it.

It has had many, many, many opportunities to dissipate though...

[cycloneye]

It has had many, many, many opportunities to dissipate though...

One thing all can agree is that it has been a pesky system since emerging Africa with the circulation that I haved posted before.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 97, 2009072200, , BEST, 0, 175N, 696W, 25, 1011, DB

[wxman57]

We may be seeing the beginning of the end for 97L this evening. That MLC appears to be dissipating. There's a very deep trof digging all the way south to eastern Cuba in advance of 97L and it appears that moisture associated with 97L is being drawn northwestward up the trof. By tomorrow, there may not be much left to track but an accelerating streak of moisture.

[floridasun78]

this topic will be close by wed what wxman57 saying end is coming to 97l it on life support

[wxman57]

this topic will be close by wed what wxman57 saying end is coming to 97l it on life support

The NHC won't give up on it quickly, but I notice that new model guidance is much faster and more to the east, indicating a significant northward acceleration in the next day or so.

[Dean4Storms]

Will have to be watched out east of Florida in a couple days, but don't see any chances in the near term for sure.

[floridasun78]

will some engery still behind when other area move toward north or will deep trof take all that mess toward north????

[gatorcane]

Will have to be watched out east of Florida in a couple days, but don't see any chances in the near term for sure.

Not only that but 97L/wave is going to pull all of that deep moisture east of Florida ahead of the trough actually causing some potential drying over the Florida peninsula for the next couple of days. This may be contrary to what the media down here has been saying regarding the increased rain chances from "tropical waves."

That trough is something else. It's the kind that if it comes through during the winter months, it would likely bring some freeze warnings into parts of Florida.

[cpdaman]

well the rain chances went down in S.FL for wed/thru........good ......i've had enough for now

I think a hybrid type of low will form east of bahamas later wednesday and pass east of hatteras thursday......as far as a name goes .....don't really care.....it's not gonna be more than a moderate nor'easter at worst

[Gustywind]

Tropical rain may be heavy in spots
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 21, 2009 7:36 pm ET
A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development. Look for heavy rain and gusty winds over parts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Virgin Islands. Flash flood watches are in effect for Puerto Rico through Tuesday evening. This feature may develop an area of low pressure east of the Carolinas by Thursday.

Another disturbed area located near the Bahamas is the result of a tropical wave interacting with with a front and an upper-level trough near the Southeast U.S. Strong winds aloft will keep this activity from developing.

Rain from this disturbance is currently impacting the Bahamas. Eventually, some of this tropical moisture will head to Florida and the Southeast Coast. This may enhance rainfall chances over the next couple of days.

Another tropical wave is extremely far south in the west-central tropical Atlantic. It will move near the northeast coast of South America soon and on to the southern Antilles by Thursday.

A low pressure circulation has moved offshore Cost Rica into the SE North Pacific and there is a chance it will begin to strengthen as it moves away from land, taking any land impacts with it farther offshore.

[somethingfunny]

Twenty-seven pages of discussion for a tropical wave.

You know the tropics are slow when.....

[wxman57]

Nothing much identifiable of 97L this morning except a wave axis from north of the DR to east of Jamaica. Moisture from 97L is racing NW into the upper low NE of the Bahamas, where a frontal low will probably form later today or tomorrow. The low will race NNE off the east coast. There's not much else out in the tropics of concern.

[cycloneye]

Twenty-seven pages of discussion for a tropical wave.

You know the tropics are slow when.....

Two causes for that.

Was designated a invest on the 16th.

Was a pesky system that attracted many comments because it was a pulsing wave.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

NOGAPS is on crack lol. I dont feel this has too much for it.

Blobwatching more or less