WPAC: TD GONI (0907/08W/PAGASA: JOLINA)

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 116.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 116.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.3N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.7N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.2N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.9N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.6N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.2N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 116.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND
040300Z.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 030000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
AT 40N 168E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 19.6N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA
AT 18.3N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 138E 36N 141E
42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 34N 180E 37N 160E 33N
141E 35N 138E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 40N 155E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 54N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 48N 162E ESE 20 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 31N 168E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42N 156E TO 41N 160E 40N 165E 40N 168E 38N 172E
36N 178E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

Convection is now closer to the center.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC not predicting intensification.

[senorpepr]

Slight weakening/filling indicated by JMA...

WWJP25 RJTD 030600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 39N 171E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 20.0N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 21.5N 132.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 19.3N 115.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 142E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 37N 166E 37N 154E 32N 140E 35N
140E 41N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 40N 156E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 59N 176E SSE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 41N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 47N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 30N 165E WEST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 159E TO 39N 165E 39N 171E 36N 177E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 115.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 115.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.7N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.6N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.3N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.0N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 115.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND EXPANDING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

WTJP22 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0907 GONI (0907) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992
HPA
AT 20.0N 115.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 21.0N 115.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 22.0N 114.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 22.7N 113.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 20.4N 115.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 21.4N 114.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 051200UTC 22.0N 114.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 061200UTC 22.7N 113.2E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 20.4N 114.6E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 21.4N 114.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 051800UTC 22.2N 113.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061800UTC 22.6N 112.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.9N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.6N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.9N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.9N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 114.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE SOUTHERN
HALF AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO EXPAND AS CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST
SIX HOURS. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
SYSTEMS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MAINLAND CHINA. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, BETWEEN HONG KONG AND HAINAN ISLAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
09W (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot better

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.3N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.8N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.8N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 113.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

[Derek Ortt]

many models have this becoming hung up on the coast due to the large circ of the system to the east

[HURAKAN]

Closer to landfall

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.8N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.2N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.5N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 113.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (GONI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND CIRRUS OVER A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POSITION
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM VHHH AND A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED SATELLITE FIX POSITION FROM PGTW. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE PASSAGE OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE ALLOWING 08W TO TRACK
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPOSED TO 20KTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FUEL MODERATE DEVELOPMENT UP TO
45 KTS BEFORE LAND FALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE REST OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 156
WTPQ21 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 21.6N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 22.2N 112.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 061200UTC 22.3N 110.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
NNNN

[Iune]

This reminds me of Soudelor from earlier in the year. Same basic shape and place:

Soudelor

Goni:

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.1N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.3N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 113.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (GONI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Closer to landfall

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 031
WTPQ21 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0907 GONI (0907)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 21.8N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 22.2N 111.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 061200UTC 22.3N 110.2E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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