CPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANA (06E)

[brunota2003]

For those who are curious as to the links for the CPAC:

A list of active TC's in the CPAC:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/

Products for TC Lana:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/LANA.php

Central Pacific Hurricane Center:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

[brunota2003]

Are they on vacation in Honolulu?


Or is Avila bored by the 1-0 no-hitter being pitched by the tropics.

Anddddddddddddd...they are back up, as of early this afternoon:

000
NOHW40 PHFO 311830
PNSHFO
HIZ001>028-010630-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 AM HST FRI JUL 31 2009

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
RESUMES FULL OPERATIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
HAS RETURNED TO FULL OPERATIONAL CAPACITY AFTER EXPERIENCING COMPUTER HARDWARE
PROBLEMS YESTERDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF LAST NIGHT. BACKUP OPERATIONS WERE
SUCCESSFULLY IMPLEMENTED DURING THIS PERIOD. BACKUP OPERATIONS ARE PERFORMED
REGULARLY THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO ENSURE CONTINUOUS OPERATIONS AND FLOW OF
PRODUCTS WITHOUT A DEGRADATION OF SERVICES.

$$

TANABE

[islandgirl78]

Is Hawaii pretty much in the clear? There's been some talk on our local newspaper website about this possibly pulling an Iniki and heading north. Just wondering if anyone knows what the probabilities of that happening are?

[pman]

Is Hawaii pretty much in the clear? There's been some talk on our local newspaper website about this possibly pulling an Iniki and heading north. Just wondering if anyone knows what the probabilities of that happening are?

Pretty unlikely. And regardless, Lana should weaken fast enough that any bizarre turn north would likely be of little concern to most in Hawai'i. It would be nowhere near the level of Iniki.

[Derek Ortt]

Is Hawaii pretty much in the clear? There's been some talk on our local newspaper website about this possibly pulling an Iniki and heading north. Just wondering if anyone knows what the probabilities of that happening are?

should not turn north unless this intensifies significantly. Significant intensification is not expected

[islandgirl78]

Thanks. I'll pass on the info. There will be a lot of relieved people.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
1100 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2009

A BURST OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF LANA DURING THE
EVENING...ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS LATEST ROUND OF
CONVECTION...LED TO SOME DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER AND CAUSED A VARIETY IN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. THE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AND TRMM NEAR
0300Z AND SSMIS AT 0530Z POINTED TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOLLOWING
CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK...WHILE THE 0312Z AMSUB 89 GHZ SUGGESTED
THAT THE UPPER PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS TILTED NORTHWARD WITH HEIGHT
DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. PHFO AND SAB DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS CAME IN AT 3.5...AND JTWC REPORTED A 4.0...WHILE CIMSS ADT
CALCULATED AN ADJUSTED T NUMBER OF 3.1. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT...FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE INTENSITY
SUGGESTED BY ADT AND SAB WHICH PLACED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CLOSER
TO THE 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED
ON NEARBY QUIKSCAT PASS.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
REGARDING TRACK. LANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...SINCE SST VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 27C FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING THE WIND SHEAR...WHICH INCREASES
RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
CIMSS ANALYSIS. LANA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UNDER THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT...BUT THAT WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN DELAYED TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. STEADY WEAKENING
IS FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG LANA/S PROJECTED TRACK. THE
FORECAST IS FOR LANA TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND
POTENTIALLY SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.4N 150.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 152.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.3N 155.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 158.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 16.1N 160.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.9N 166.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 171.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 177.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE/HOUSTON

[senorpepr]

912
FXHW60 PHFO 010641
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI JUL 31 2009

SYNOPSIS

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ALOHA STATE WILL MAINTAIN
TRADE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL CYCLONE
LANA PASSES FAR SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY
THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.



DISCUSSION

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 37N 146W...OR ABOUT 1300 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH AT THE SURFACE...AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT TO THE
ISLANDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE ISLANDS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ALOHA STATE
FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM LANA...
NOW LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PASS FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ LATER THE WEEKEND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOR LANA INDICATES IT MAY WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF
THE STATE WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WOULD
BOOST THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS. SEE THE LATEST BULLETINS ISSUED BY CPHC
FOR THE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM LANA.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LIKELY MAKE THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE STATE MORE STABLE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REIGN OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT TIMES.



MARINE

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS SUCH AS THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS INCREASES
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LANA SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...
ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE SCA FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT THE LANAI WAVE BUOY HAS INCREASED TO
3.5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 17 SECONDS. THE KILO NALU
WAVE SENSOR LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU HAS A SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3 FEET WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 17 SECONDS.
THEREFORE...SURF HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS REMAIN NEAR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...SO THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS... MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST SUNDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.





HOUSTON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
500 AM HST SAT AUG 01 2009

PULSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF LANA HAS
ALLOWED THE TROPICAL STORM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. PINPOINTING THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER REMAINS A CHALLENGE...BUT A 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
JUST IN HAS RAISED THE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS AT 14.6N 151.0W...CLOSE TO THE PHFO AND SAB
FIXES WHICH PUT THE CENTER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT FLARED OVERNIGHT. THIS POSITION ALSO PROVIDES
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...YIELDING A MOTION
OF 280/14 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
FINAL T NUMBERS FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE 35 KT SUGGESTED BY CIMSS ADT.

THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CLOSELY. LANA
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW AND
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD IN PHASE WITH LANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND REMAINS JUST
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS. ALONG THIS TRACK...LANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...SINCE SST VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 27C OR
GREATER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING THE WIND SHEAR...WHICH INCREASES
RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH LANA TRAVELLING WESTWARD FASTER THAN
THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INCREASE...CAUSING LANA TO WEAKEN. THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY...WITH LANA WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY AND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 4. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF...WHICH WEAKENS LANA
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER ICON CONSTITUENTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 14.7N 151.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 15.1N 153.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 15.5N 156.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 15.9N 159.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 16.4N 162.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 17.1N 167.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.7N 173.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1200Z 18.2N 178.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER WROE/HOUSTON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 01 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM LANA HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY SINCE
LATE LAST NIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...THE
HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ARE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...AND THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED. THESE ARE GOOD INDICATIONS
THAT SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS WEAKENING THE STORM.

LAST NIGHT LOCATING THE CENTER OF LANA WAS PROBLEMATICAL...BUT A
SERIES OF MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE ALLOWED US TO
LOCATE THE CENTER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THESE IMAGES HAVE ALSO GIVEN
US GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM IS BEING SHEARED AS EXPECTED.

THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CLOSELY WITH A
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. LANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A LOW AND MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD IN PHASE WITH LANA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ON A
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE DYNAMIC
MODELS. I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH SINCE LANA
IS NOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT FASTER. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS LANA
PASSING OVER 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS LANA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AROUND 27.5C THAT MAY HAVE HELPED
PRODUCE THE BURST OF CONVECTION LAST EVENING. LANA SHOULD NOW BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AROUND 1C
COOLER. THESE SSTS WOULD STILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE STORM BUT
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE STORM. SINCE THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ALREADY SHOWN LANA BEING DECAPITATED BY
THE VERTICAL SHEAR WE HAVE FORECAST WEAKENING TO OCCUR A BIT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 14.5N 153.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 14.8N 155.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 158.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 15.7N 161.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 15.9N 164.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.4N 169.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/1800Z 16.9N 175.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1800Z 17.3N 179.4E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[brunota2003]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I saw this weakening coming since last night, and knew she'd fall apart this morning. Was watching the convection just off to her west and their tops were being ripped off and sheared to the NE, definitely not a good thing for a tropical cyclone. As the Upper Low, pushed of to the NW some more, the trough of screaming winds weakened and narrowed, giving Lana a chance to reorganize and develop more convection.

Since then, Lana has gotten closer to the core of winds and once again has had it's convection stripped, the tops being blown rapidly to the NE. More storms are trying to redevelop over her, and I do think we'll see another popping of convection tonight before her bell is tolled.

Looking at the wind directions, they calm a little just in front of her (probably will help the current convection trying to develop a little later tonight) before she will once again be picked apart. The ULL is helping her and killing her at the same time. Give it another 24 to 48 hours and all that will be left is a LLC producing intermittent convective puffs as it struggles to keep the definition of a tropical cyclone, along with convection.

And 24 hours later, what is left? A LLC with very limited convection. Per the 11 am advisory, winds are 50 mph...but per the sat images, I'm guessing closer to 40 mph, if not lower.

She did have another blow up of convection which has since been killed off, as I guessed would happen. Looking at the sat loops, I expect that last nights blow up is the last major organized convection we will see from her forever.

From now on, look for more in the way of small puffs of convection here and there as she struggles to try to fight off the shear...however the shear will win within the next 24 hours and I see her becoming nothing more than a remnant low by tomorrow night or monday morning (eastern time).

IMHO
Bye bye, Lana...nice knowing you!

[HURAKAN]

Hanging in there!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2009

CONVECTION AROUND LANA CONTINUES TO PULSE. AT 1000 AM HST...NEARLY
ALL OF THE CONVECTION AROUND LANA HAD DISSIPATED BUT MORE CONVECTION
HAS NOW DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED SO WE STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CENTER LOCATION. THE PRESENCE OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ARE
INDICATIONS THAT LANA IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE.

THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CLOSELY WITH A VERY
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. LANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANA HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. I HAVE KEPT
THE TRACK NEARLY THE SAME...WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS LANA PASSING ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT...THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AROUND 800 PM TONIGHT.

AS USUAL...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN
THE TRACK FORECAST. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS LANA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER
AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AROUND
27.5C...AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...THAT MAY BE HELPING LANA
SURVIVE. LANA SHOULD NOW START MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE SSTS WOULD STILL BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN
THE STORM IF THE ENVIRONMENT WAS OTHERWISE FAVORABLE.SO PROBABLY THE
MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL DETERMINE LANAS INTENSITY WILL BE VERTICAL
SHEAR.

THERE IS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TROUGH ALOFT JUST NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH ARE
PRODUCING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. LANA IS JUST ON THE EDGE OF THIS
STRONG SHEAR. AS LANA MOVES WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE SHEAR ZONE WILL ALSO MOVE WEST. I EXPECT THE SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KILL LANA OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS OR
SO...BUT IT IS NOT A SURE THING. LANA WILL START MOVING OVER WARMER
WATER AGAIN WEST OF 160W AND THAT COULD GIVE THE CYCLONE A NEW LEASE
ON LIFE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 14.5N 155.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 14.8N 157.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.2N 160.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 163.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 15.8N 166.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.3N 171.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/0000Z 16.7N 176.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0000Z 17.0N 178.0E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[CrazyC83]

Tough call there. If it can hold its own to 165-170, it could easily rejuvenate itself as it approaches the dateline. But it might dissipate before then.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not all that bad at the data buoy 185 miles SE of Hilo.

7 to 9 foot seas are more than a small craft should be out in, but the winds aren't too bad. At least not yet.

[brunota2003]

Actually...that buoy is wayyyyyy the heck WSW of Hilo...try like...way out in the middle of the ocean (how far Iono, maybe 500 miles?). It went adrift back in November 2008

The latest coordinates for it are:
2009 08 02 04 17.4550 N 177.5390 W

Station 51004 went adrift on 11/09/2008 and the last report from its moored position was at 0742Z. It is still transmitting valid observation data, which will continue to be reported here, but not at the location above. Click here to see the latest positions.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/nws_special/51004.txt


Using those coordinates above, that would place the buoy here:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2009

AT 800 PM HST...0600Z...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF LANA WAS
DUE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MOVING TO THE WEST AT A STEADY 16
KT. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CENTER POSITION IS GOOD AS IS THE CYCLONE MOVEMENT. JTWC...SAB AND
HFO ALL CAME IN WITH FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.0. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
THEREFORE REMAINS AT 45 KT.

THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH ONLY A SMALL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. LANA LIES IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND RIDGE. THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED
NORTH OF HAWAII AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 120
HOURS...KEEPING LANA WELL WITHIN THE TRADE WIND BELT. THE FORECAST
THEREFORE KEEPS LANA ON A WESTWARD TRACK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE TIGHTLY GROUPED OBJECTIVE
AIDES.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NEAR 18N 166W HAS
BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT EAST
OF THE LOW ARE RIDING UP OVER THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES
RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEARING. A CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW NEAR ITS PRESENT POSITION OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS. THEY THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT THE UPPER LOW OUT TO THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A SLACKENING OF THE SHEAR. THE PERSISTENT
SHEAR SHOULD TAKE ITS TOLL ON LANA...FORCING IT TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 14.5N 156.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 14.7N 159.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 162.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 164.9W 35 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.6N 167.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.1N 173.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/0600Z 16.6N 178.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0600Z 17.1N 176.2E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually...that buoy is wayyyyyy the heck WSW of Hilo...try like...way out in the middle of the ocean (how far Iono, maybe 500 miles?). It went adrift back in November 2008

The latest coordinates for it are:
2009 08 02 04 17.4550 N 177.5390 W

Station 51004 went adrift on 11/09/2008 and the last report from its moored position was at 0742Z. It is still transmitting valid observation data, which will continue to be reported here, but not at the location above. Click here to see the latest positions.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/nws_special/51004.txt


Using those coordinates above, that would place the buoy here:

Oh.

[Cookie]

Actually...that buoy is wayyyyyy the heck WSW of Hilo...try like...way out in the middle of the ocean (how far Iono, maybe 500 miles?). It went adrift back in November 2008

The latest coordinates for it are:
2009 08 02 04 17.4550 N 177.5390 W

Station 51004 went adrift on 11/09/2008 and the last report from its moored position was at 0742Z. It is still transmitting valid observation data, which will continue to be reported here, but not at the location above. Click here to see the latest positions.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/nws_special/51004.txt


Using those coordinates above, that would place the buoy here:

Oh.

oh bouy you didn't see that coming!

[HURAKAN]

Still kicking and screaming.