EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE (07E)

[cycloneye]

Less strong at 00 UTC best track.

EP, 07, 2009080500, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1190W, 45, 1000, TS

[wxmann_91]

pwn3d by Felicia's outflow, poor dude

[HURAKAN]

692
WTPZ22 KNHC 050246
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 119.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 119.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 123.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.8N 125.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 15SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 127.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 139.7W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 119.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN



472
WTPZ32 KNHC 050247
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

...ENRIQUE WEAKENING...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST OR ABOUT 785
MILES...1265 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.0N 119.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN


354
WTPZ42 KNHC 050259
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE HAS
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR
EAST OF HURRICANE FELICIA. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ENRIQUE HAS MARKEDLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...
SHRINKING TO A SMALL AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND
35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS DECREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THE SYSTEM IS 295/13. WHILE THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC STEERING MECHANISM FOR ENRIQUE IS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT
OF MOTION OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. AFTER 24
HOURS THE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN ENRIQUE AND ABSORB ITS REMNANTS INTO
FELICIA. THE NOGAPS MAINTAINS ENRIQUE AS A STRONGER SYSTEM...WHICH
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE UKMET ALLOWS MORE DISTANCE TO BUILD BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS...BUT DISSIPATES ENRIQUE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. BECAUSE
OF THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER
ENRIQUE WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...ENRIQUE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 27C
AND MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED
WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
CONDITIONS...WITH A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS
BEFORE DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.0N 119.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 123.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 18.8N 125.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.1N 127.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 131.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN

[HurricaneJoe22]

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

How many forecasters does it take to write an advisory?

[AnnularCane]

I always figured Felicia would be the one who would have problems.

[brunota2003]

Big things come in small packages...don't pick on the small people, you will get burned.

[cycloneye]

MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE...BUT QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0230 UTC SHOWED A
COUPLE OF 50-KT WIND VECTORS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DETERIORATED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
THE QUIKSCAT DATA. ENRIQUE SHOULD WEAKEN PRIMARILY DUE TO NORTHERLY
SHEAR...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN A DAY OR TWO BY
THE MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE FELICIA
LOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN
THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN
MORE TO THE WEST AS ENRIQUE OR THE REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FELICIA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
WEST TRACK AND DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE BEYOND A DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.8N 120.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 17.7N 122.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 125.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Trying to stay away from Fierce Felicia

[cycloneye]

MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

A BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED THE
APPEARANCE OF ENRIQUE WITH A SLIGHT SATELLITE-BASED ADJUSTMENT OF
THE DIFFUSE CENTER TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE BEST CONVECTION.
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS DIRECTION WILL SOON LEAD TO WEAKENING GIVEN ITS
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MUCH-STRONGER FELICIA. VARIOUS
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HWRF AND GHM...INDICATE A FAIRLY RAPID
DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY IS
ABSORBED INTO FELICIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DISSIPATION
TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 48 HOURS.


ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO
FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST BY 24
HOURS...MOST MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 36 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 17.3N 122.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.7N 131.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER SOWKO

[Jevo]

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

How many forecasters does it take to write an advisory?

They're all chomping at the bit... Not much practice this season

[brunota2003]

The latest quikscat shows several 50 knot barbs near the center, and even one 55 knot barb

[HURAKAN]

Poor Enrique continues to fight a lost battle!

[CrazyC83]

The latest quikscat shows several 50 knot barbs near the center, and even one 55 knot barb

Maybe it was a hurricane, or close to it, yesterday?

[brunota2003]

The latest quikscat shows several 50 knot barbs near the center, and even one 55 knot barb

Maybe it was a hurricane, or close to it, yesterday?

Doubtful...it only had one 50 knot barb yesterday. If I had to guess, the blow up of convection overnight bumped the winds from 45 - 50 knots, up to ~55 knots.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 07, 2009080518, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1228W, 40, 1002, TS

Continues to weaken

[Iune]

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 052045
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

DESPITE A LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE THINKING OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING ENRIQUE AS
IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER SHEAR AND COOLER SST AT PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER
LATITUDES. FELICIA IS INGESTING MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH LEAVING ENRIQUE WITH A WANING MOISTURE SOURCE FROM
THE EAST. THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AND ASYMMETRICAL CENTER WAS
ANALYZED AT 18Z NORTH OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION...AND THE
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADANT WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORBALE. FARTHER WEST...VISIBLE SATELLITE
CLEARLY SHOWS FELICIA HAVING A DELETERIOUS EFFECT ON ENRIQUE...AND
HWRF/GHM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION WITHIN 36
HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY WILL BE ABSORBED INTO FELICIA.

ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY
TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST
MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 24-36 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.4N 123.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 20.3N 127.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 20.8N 130.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER SOWKO

[cycloneye]

00 UTC best track mantains at 45kts.

EP, 07, 2009080600, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1240W, 45, 1000, TS

[cycloneye]

WTPZ22 KNHC 060234
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
0300 UTC THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 129.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.6N 132.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.0N 135.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


WTPZ42 KNHC 060253
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN
PRODUCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED A BIT AND ALSO HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD...TO A POSITION
BASICALLY DUE NORTH OF ENRIQUE. THIS HAS CAUSED THE UPPER WIND
PATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND VEER
IN A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. AS A RESULT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ENRIQUE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. A 2222Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO DEPICTED A
PARTIAL BUT CLEARLY DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING PATTERN BENEATH THE
CDO. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE PRESENTATIONS...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS THAT REVEALED
NUMEROUS BELIEVABLE 45 KT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE IN WEAKENING ENRIQUE INTO
A REMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS AND DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS...PRIMARILY DUE
TO COOLER WATER AND 20-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH
ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS.

ENRIQUE IS MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...310/15.
HURRICANE FELICIAS PERIPHERAL WIND FIELD SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCING
THIS CHANGE IN MOTION...COMPARING TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE HAS NOT WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIFT IN MOTION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 19.7N 124.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 129.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 22.6N 132.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 23.0N 135.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[Derek Ortt]

much better organized than I thought http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks