EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE (07E)
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
WTPZ22 KNHC 040241
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
0300 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 113.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 113.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 113.5W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 115.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 55SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 55SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 119.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 121.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 113.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
568
WTPZ42 KNHC 040252
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009
THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 3.0
FROM TAFB...AND BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...THE DEPRESSION IS
UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MODEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF ENRIQUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.
WHILE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ENRIQUE TO NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E TO THE WEST COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL BINARY
INTERACTION...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONES WILL
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE ONE ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES
LITTLE INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E...CONTINUES TO AFFECT ENRIQUE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED RECENTLY AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN
EXPANDING CANOPY OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW ONLY PARTIALLY RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTH. ENRIQUE SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY IN
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WARM WATERS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW
WEAKENING...BUT ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 26.5C
WATER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE ICON CONSENSUS.
SHOULD ENRIQUE MOVE MORE NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
THE FORECAST INDICATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 13.3N 113.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 13.9N 115.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 15.1N 119.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 15.6N 121.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 125.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 129.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
Yeah, I'm not one to criticize the people working their trade, and certainly loath it when people who are cheerleading a storm bash an agency's estimate when it's too low for their liking (without doing any objective analysis of their own). That said, the SAB estimate seems so far in left field, I wouldn't mention it if I were writing the discussion. It seems like they made a different pattern choice at the start and that totally threw their number off. Very weird.
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 115.0W
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.4N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 115.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
ENRIQUE HAS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO SO THE STORM IS
BEING HELD AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT
ENRIQUE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY DUE TO
SOME INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND MOST ARE FAVORING
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF T.D. EIGHT-E INSTEAD OF ENRIQUE. THERE IS
LARGE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY. THE
NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TOWARDS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENRIQUE MAY NOT
SURVIVE AFTER A FEW DAYS IF T.D. EIGHT-E BECOMES THE DOMINANT
SYSTEM.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS EITHER NO OR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOTCHED DOWNWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS FORECAST STILL LIES AT THE UPPER
LIMIT OF THE GUIDANCE...VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS
LIKELY THAT THIS CHANGE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH SINCE THE HWRF SHOWS
ALMOST NO INTENSIFICATION AND THE GFDL DISSIPATES ENRIQUE IN ABOUT
42 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 14.0N 115.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 117.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.4N 120.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 123.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 17.5N 131.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W 35 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 115.0W
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.4N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 115.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
ENRIQUE HAS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO SO THE STORM IS
BEING HELD AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT
ENRIQUE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY DUE TO
SOME INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND MOST ARE FAVORING
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF T.D. EIGHT-E INSTEAD OF ENRIQUE. THERE IS
LARGE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY. THE
NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TOWARDS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENRIQUE MAY NOT
SURVIVE AFTER A FEW DAYS IF T.D. EIGHT-E BECOMES THE DOMINANT
SYSTEM.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS EITHER NO OR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOTCHED DOWNWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS FORECAST STILL LIES AT THE UPPER
LIMIT OF THE GUIDANCE...VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS
LIKELY THAT THIS CHANGE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH SINCE THE HWRF SHOWS
ALMOST NO INTENSIFICATION AND THE GFDL DISSIPATES ENRIQUE IN ABOUT
42 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 14.0N 115.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 117.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.4N 120.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 123.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 17.5N 131.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W 35 KT
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
834
WHXX01 KMIA 041251
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE (EP072009) 20090804 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 1200 090805 0000 090805 1200 090806 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 116.4W 15.7N 119.5W 17.1N 122.6W 18.5N 125.6W
BAMD 14.4N 116.4W 15.4N 119.2W 16.5N 122.0W 18.0N 124.7W
BAMM 14.4N 116.4W 15.6N 119.3W 16.9N 122.3W 18.4N 125.2W
LBAR 14.4N 116.4W 15.5N 119.2W 16.9N 121.9W 18.2N 124.6W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 61KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 1200 090807 1200 090808 1200 090809 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 128.7W 21.0N 135.2W 21.5N 142.3W 21.9N 149.1W
BAMD 19.3N 127.5W 20.9N 132.7W 21.4N 137.6W 21.2N 141.9W
BAMM 19.6N 128.2W 21.1N 134.2W 21.7N 140.7W 22.3N 147.1W
LBAR 19.5N 127.0W 21.2N 131.3W 21.9N 135.1W 27.3N 133.8W
SHIP 61KTS 53KTS 44KTS 37KTS
DSHP 61KTS 53KTS 44KTS 37KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 116.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 113.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 110.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 041251
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE (EP072009) 20090804 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 1200 090805 0000 090805 1200 090806 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 116.4W 15.7N 119.5W 17.1N 122.6W 18.5N 125.6W
BAMD 14.4N 116.4W 15.4N 119.2W 16.5N 122.0W 18.0N 124.7W
BAMM 14.4N 116.4W 15.6N 119.3W 16.9N 122.3W 18.4N 125.2W
LBAR 14.4N 116.4W 15.5N 119.2W 16.9N 121.9W 18.2N 124.6W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 61KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 1200 090807 1200 090808 1200 090809 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 128.7W 21.0N 135.2W 21.5N 142.3W 21.9N 149.1W
BAMD 19.3N 127.5W 20.9N 132.7W 21.4N 137.6W 21.2N 141.9W
BAMM 19.6N 128.2W 21.1N 134.2W 21.7N 140.7W 22.3N 147.1W
LBAR 19.5N 127.0W 21.2N 131.3W 21.9N 135.1W 27.3N 133.8W
SHIP 61KTS 53KTS 44KTS 37KTS
DSHP 61KTS 53KTS 44KTS 37KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 116.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 113.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 110.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM
$$
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2009 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 14:15:00 N Lon : 116:16:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.6 4.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -75.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2009 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 14:15:00 N Lon : 116:16:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.6 4.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -75.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
827
WTPZ32 KNHC 041432
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
...ENRIQUE STRENGTHENS...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST OR ABOUT 735
MILES...1185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.7N 117.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
290
WTPZ42 KNHC 041436
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
THE TROPICAL STORM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW BECOMING
MORE DISTINCT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB GIVES 50 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENRIQUE WILL WEAKEN...AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NEIGHBORING TROPICAL STORM FELICIA.
HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A TOTALLY REALISTIC
INITIALIZATION OF THE TWO STORMS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE
LATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NUDGED UPWARD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BRISK 290/14. THE TWO PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISMS ARE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM AND THE CIRCULATION OF FELICIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHICH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONES WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT FELICIA WILL DOMINATE...AT THE MOMENT
ENRIQUE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT
COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT IS BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.7N 117.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 123.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 18.5N 129.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
WTPZ32 KNHC 041432
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
...ENRIQUE STRENGTHENS...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST OR ABOUT 735
MILES...1185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.7N 117.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
290
WTPZ42 KNHC 041436
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
THE TROPICAL STORM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW BECOMING
MORE DISTINCT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB GIVES 50 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENRIQUE WILL WEAKEN...AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NEIGHBORING TROPICAL STORM FELICIA.
HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A TOTALLY REALISTIC
INITIALIZATION OF THE TWO STORMS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE
LATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NUDGED UPWARD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BRISK 290/14. THE TWO PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISMS ARE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM AND THE CIRCULATION OF FELICIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHICH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONES WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT FELICIA WILL DOMINATE...AT THE MOMENT
ENRIQUE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT
COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT IS BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.7N 117.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 123.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 18.5N 129.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2009 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 14:41:59 N Lon : 117:05:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.3mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.0 4.1
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb
Center Temp : -53.4C Cloud Region Temp : -64.8C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2009 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 14:41:59 N Lon : 117:05:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.3mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.0 4.1
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb
Center Temp : -53.4C Cloud Region Temp : -64.8C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
326
WHXX01 KMIA 041837
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE (EP072009) 20090804 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 1800 090805 0600 090805 1800 090806 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 117.8W 16.3N 120.5W 17.8N 123.2W 19.2N 125.9W
BAMD 14.8N 117.8W 15.7N 120.4W 16.9N 122.9W 18.1N 125.4W
BAMM 14.8N 117.8W 15.9N 120.5W 17.2N 123.2W 18.4N 125.8W
LBAR 14.8N 117.8W 16.0N 120.3W 17.3N 123.0W 18.5N 125.4W
SHIP 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS 62KTS
DSHP 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS 62KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 1800 090807 1800 090808 1800 090809 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 128.8W 22.2N 134.8W 22.9N 141.1W 23.1N 147.1W
BAMD 19.2N 128.0W 20.5N 133.1W 20.7N 137.6W 20.0N 141.8W
BAMM 19.5N 128.6W 21.0N 134.2W 21.6N 139.7W 21.8N 144.9W
LBAR 19.6N 127.7W 21.1N 131.8W 21.7N 135.2W 21.1N 137.5W
SHIP 60KTS 51KTS 40KTS 33KTS
DSHP 60KTS 51KTS 40KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 117.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 115.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 112.2W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 041837
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC TUE AUG 4 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE (EP072009) 20090804 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090804 1800 090805 0600 090805 1800 090806 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 117.8W 16.3N 120.5W 17.8N 123.2W 19.2N 125.9W
BAMD 14.8N 117.8W 15.7N 120.4W 16.9N 122.9W 18.1N 125.4W
BAMM 14.8N 117.8W 15.9N 120.5W 17.2N 123.2W 18.4N 125.8W
LBAR 14.8N 117.8W 16.0N 120.3W 17.3N 123.0W 18.5N 125.4W
SHIP 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS 62KTS
DSHP 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS 62KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090806 1800 090807 1800 090808 1800 090809 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 128.8W 22.2N 134.8W 22.9N 141.1W 23.1N 147.1W
BAMD 19.2N 128.0W 20.5N 133.1W 20.7N 137.6W 20.0N 141.8W
BAMM 19.5N 128.6W 21.0N 134.2W 21.6N 139.7W 21.8N 144.9W
LBAR 19.6N 127.7W 21.1N 131.8W 21.7N 135.2W 21.1N 137.5W
SHIP 60KTS 51KTS 40KTS 33KTS
DSHP 60KTS 51KTS 40KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 117.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 115.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 112.2W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM
$$
NNNN
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:
Enrique continues to become better organized
Would you mind explaining what is shown by this graphic? I can tell it's a satellite view of the storm, but what is being measured / analyzed? If anyone can explain this to me I would really appreciate it.
Edit - ok, now I see....it's measuring the temperature of the Brightness in Kelvin. What???
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Its a microwave image of the storm that is able to look though the clouds and see the precipitation. Its how you see the center of the storm when there is no eye on visible satellite. It also allows you to see a forming eyewall before it appears on visible images like with Felicia today.
With that image you can see a pretty strong core and what kinda appears to be an eye like feature. You can also see what may be some dry air being wrapped into it to the SW of the center.
With that image you can see a pretty strong core and what kinda appears to be an eye like feature. You can also see what may be some dry air being wrapped into it to the SW of the center.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
282
WTPZ42 KNHC 042035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
ENRIQUE IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS RATHER SMALL.
THERE IS A DRY SLOT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION
THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
GIVES A 50-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A
LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...COOLER WATERS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE PRESENCE OF NEIGHBORING
TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SOME
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ENRIQUE SWINGING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENCOUNTER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND ECMWF...PREDICT
THAT FELICIA WILL ABSORB ENRIQUE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT FELICIA...ALTHOUGH IT IS THE STRONGER
SYSTEM... DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION THAN ENRIQUE
AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AROUND 290/14. AGAIN THE TWO MAIN
STEERING MECHANISMS ARE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE
CIRCULATION OF FELICIA. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE FORMER WILL BE THE
MORE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS...WITH THE
FORMER BEING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.0N 118.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 122.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 123.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 18.4N 125.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.5N 129.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 19.0N 138.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ42 KNHC 042035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
ENRIQUE IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS RATHER SMALL.
THERE IS A DRY SLOT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION
THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
GIVES A 50-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A
LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...COOLER WATERS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE PRESENCE OF NEIGHBORING
TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SOME
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ENRIQUE SWINGING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENCOUNTER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND ECMWF...PREDICT
THAT FELICIA WILL ABSORB ENRIQUE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT FELICIA...ALTHOUGH IT IS THE STRONGER
SYSTEM... DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION THAN ENRIQUE
AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AROUND 290/14. AGAIN THE TWO MAIN
STEERING MECHANISMS ARE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE
CIRCULATION OF FELICIA. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE FORMER WILL BE THE
MORE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS...WITH THE
FORMER BEING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.0N 118.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 122.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 123.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 18.4N 125.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.5N 129.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 19.0N 138.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:Its a microwave image of the storm that is able to look though the clouds and see the precipitation. Its how you see the center of the storm when there is no eye on visible satellite. It also allows you to see a forming eyewall before it appears on visible images like with Felicia today.
With that image you can see a pretty strong core and what kinda appears to be an eye like feature. You can also see what may be some dry air being wrapped into it to the SW of the center.
Thanks
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE (07E)
Enrique having a hard time getting better organized while its sister thrives
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