CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[HURAKAN]

If it keeps moving north, it will miss most of the islands. Remember that at one point it was forecasted to remain below 20ºN and now it's already above 21ºN.



Lets remember that at one point the Big Island was in the center of the cone.

[Kingarabian]

If it keeps moving north, it will miss most of the islands. Remember that at one point it was forecasted to remain below 20ºN and now it's already above 21ºN.



Lets remember that at one point the Big Island was in the center of the cone.

I guess will see by tomorrow.

[jinftl]

With most of the Hawaiian islands under varying degrees of drought conditions, a td/weak ts would not necessarily be unwelcome...we are certainly not talking about another iniki here....high surf and rain will be the primary impacts, winds will be brisk but below the damage threshold...in other words, felicia might do more good than bad

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Thats pretty cool. The entire mid and upper cloud tops got blasted leaving the lower level. I saw that with Chris in 2006. Always interesting. Very violent shear

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately the convection should remain in the NE quadrant

[jinftl]

in which case, this could be a non-event except for higher surf across hawaii

:uarrow: Unfortunately the convection should remain in the NE quadrant

[Kingarabian]

Well I guess most computer models say Felicia will have an impact:

[jinftl]

Almost all of the weather...including the winds....are on the right side of the storm....any areas to the south of the actual center of circulation will see very little in the way of bad weather...this is not unusual for weaker systems...to have the worst weather removed from the center. Extrapolating the future track from the map below, any ts winds across the islands seem unlikely...except for higher elevations or gusts in any squalls.

The chance of ts conditions across hawaii continues to diminsh as the storm gains latitude....it is almost north of the entire island chain now....and all the weather is on the right side (the north quadrant). I would not be surprised to see the ts watch dropped for esp the big island if this path...and weakening...continues.




Current NWS Honolulu forecast....Hilo forecast is for winds in the 15-20 mph range (gusts in the 20-25mph range)....i would not be surprised to see the forecast for Honolulu (currently forecasting sustained winds of 35-40 mph, gusts from 45-50mph) come down some in terms of forecast winds tomorrow....

Hilo:
Tuesday: Occasional showers, mainly before noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 81. Breezy, with a east wind between 17 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind 9 to 17 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Honolulu:
Tuesday: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 83. Windy, with a north wind 22 to 25 mph increasing to between 36 and 39 mph. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 76. Windy, with a west wind 35 to 38 mph becoming east 14 to 17 mph. Winds could gust as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

[Kingarabian]

Almost all of the weather...including the winds....are on the right side of the storm....any areas to the south of the actual center of circulation will see very little in the way of bad weather...this is not unusual for weaker systems...to have the worst weather removed from the center. Extrapolating the future track from the map below, any ts winds across the islands seem unlikely...except for higher elevations or gusts in any squalls.

The chance of ts conditions across hawaii continues to diminsh as the storm gains latitude....it is almost north of the entire island chain now....and all the weather is on the right side (the north quadrant). I would not be surprised to see the ts watch dropped for esp the big island if this path...and weakening...continues.

Yeah I suppose; forget about were the winds were.


Nevertheless the storm is still nearly bigger then all of the islands!

[jinftl]

but you do see how, on the current track and with all of the convection on the right side, this could essentially bypass the islands? not to mention this is a system in a state of steady weakening....down almost 100mph from its peak. Hilo may not see winds over 25 mph....at this rate, honolulu may not see too much more (although the further north in the island chain one goes, the more likely you will find winds anywhere near ts force in gusts...i would guess honolulu may see a few gusts to near 40 mph, but that might be generous).

Almost all of the weather...including the winds....are on the right side of the storm....any areas to the south of the actual center of circulation will see very little in the way of bad weather...this is not unusual for weaker systems...to have the worst weather removed from the center. Extrapolating the future track from the map below, any ts winds across the islands seem unlikely...except for higher elevations or gusts in any squalls.

The chance of ts conditions across hawaii continues to diminsh as the storm gains latitude....it is almost north of the entire island chain now....and all the weather is on the right side (the north quadrant). I would not be surprised to see the ts watch dropped for esp the big island if this path...and weakening...continues.

Yeah I suppose; forget about were the winds were.


Nevertheless the storm is still nearly bigger then all of the islands!

[Kingarabian]

Im assuming on Wednesday it gains more strength. The shear should be down by then.

Felicia has survived Sunday. All eyes on Monday. Im gonna go to sleep, getting late in Oahu.

[jinftl]

Current forecast calls for no strengthening....


THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES ACROSS FELICIA THIS EVENING.
THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONCE FELICIA MOVES FAR ENOUGH WEST...IT IS
STILL ASSUMED THAT IT WILL NO LONGER BE IN THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THEREFORE...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS VERY STRONG SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FELICIA
DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMING SSTS AND IMPROVED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEYOND
48 HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH KEEPS FELICIA AT TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS. THIS AGAIN IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...FELICIA MAY UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SHEAR ENDS UP TAKING A GREATER
TOLL ON MONDAY.





All models show continued weakening in the next few days from its current intensity down to 35-40 kts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Plenty of t-storms, if the shear lightened up just a tad and would allow them to wrap the center, we could still have a full blown tropical storm.


Hawai'i needs the rain...

[cycloneye]

000
WTPA32 PHFO 101440
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 AM HST MON AUG 10 2009

...FELICIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU...THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII...AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS
OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA. IF FELICIA DOES NOT WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH AREA.

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF
HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE
OUTER WINDS FROM FELICIA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERNMOST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM IF THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING DOES NOT OCCUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE U.S. AIR FORCE
RESERVES RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY FELICIA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF
FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.5N 150.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 AM HST MON AUG 10 2009

DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE IS STILL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA...THE REMAINING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALMOST 100 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER...OR LLCC. THEREFORE...THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLED FROM
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT ACCORDING TO THE 1200 UTC UW/CIMSS
ESTIMATE. THE LATEST U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVES RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
FLIGHT DATA...IN ADDITION TO DATA FROM QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES
FROM LAST EVENING...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUED
OVER A BROAD AREA IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF FELICIA. THE LAST
AIRCRAFT FIX IN THE SYSTEM AT 1103 UTC INDICATED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS AROUND 1005 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE. EVEN THOUGH A
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 59 KT AT 850 MB WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN
THE FLIGHT AROUND 0854 UTC...THIS OBSERVATION WAS MADE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INCREASING
SEPARATION OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LLCC MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
BELIEVE FELICIA STILL HAS THESE STRONG WINDS. BASED ON THESE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB
RANGING FROM 2.0 TO 2.5...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES BETWEEN 0500 AND 1100 UTC...ALONG WITH LOOPS OF
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THE CURRENT MOTION OF 260 DEG AT
10 KT. SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM IS A SHEARED SYSTEM...ITS MOTION
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BRING FELICIA ACROSS THE
MID-SECTION OF THE STATE. WITH AN INITIAL MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE
WEST...THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN THE ALONG TRACK MOTION THROUGH
48 HOURS. THIS SHIFT FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFDL...HWRF AND TRACK
CONSENSUS MODELS...WHICH ALSO SHOWED A SHIFT TO THE LEFT THROUGH THE
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE DECOUPLED LLCC MAY CONTINUE TO STEER MORE TOWARD THE WEST
SOUTHWEST THAN IS ANTICIPATED. IF SO...FELICIA MAY BE STEERED
DIRECTLY INTO THE BIG ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL...AND THEREFORE THE BAMS
AND BAMM MODELS...CONTINUE TO BRING FELICIA NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THIS SEEMS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE AT THIS POINT... BUT IT
DOES KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME.

FELICIA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THEREFORE...THE SUPPORT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. AS FELICIA MOVES
EVEN FARTHER WEST...IT WILL NO LONGER BE IN THIS AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THEREFORE...THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONGER ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING OF FELICIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS AND IMPROVED
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEYOND 48 HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES THAT FELICIA WILL ONLY REMAIN
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH 12 HOURS.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FOR WEAKENING OF FELICIA TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORMS WARNINGS WERE
NOT ISSUED FOR ANY PARTS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS YET. IF THE
ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT TAKE PLACE
LATER TODAY...WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WATCH LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA
WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 20.5N 150.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 20.3N 151.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 20.3N 153.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 20.4N 155.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 20.5N 158.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 21.4N 162.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.5N 165.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/1200Z 24.8N 169.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[cycloneye]

000
WTPA42 PHFO 102055
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
1100 AM HST MON AUG 10 2009

DESPITE APPEARANCES TO THE CONTRARY...FELICIA IS CURRENTLY STILL A
TROPICAL STORM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 25 KT ACCORDING TO THE 1800 UTC UW/CIMSS ESTIMATE. THE LATEST
DATA FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...IN ADDITION TO DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS
AT 1550 UTC...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT
CONTINUE OVER A BROAD AREA IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF FELICIA.
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX IN THE SYSTEM AT 1857 UTC INDICATED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 1007 MB. BOTH THE SFMR AND QUIKSCAT
INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES ALONG WITH LOOPS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORT A CURRENT MOTION OF 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. SINCE THE
TROPICAL STORM IS NOT A DEEP SYSTEM...ITS MOTION WILL PRIMARILY BE
CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BRING
FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE STATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LINE
WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LITTLE VARIATION IN THE ALONG
TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN
THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS FORECAST THE
EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO BEND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER PASSING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND INTO A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SUPPORT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SHEAR... WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF FELICIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS
AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEYOND 48 HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES THAT
FELICIA WILL ONLY REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH 24
HOURS AND WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FELICIA MAY UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE CIRCULATION SPINS DOWN FASTER AND NO DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 20.9N 151.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 20.9N 152.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 154.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 21.1N 156.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 12/1800Z 21.2N 158.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 13/1800Z 22.0N 162.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 14/1800Z 23.3N 166.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/1800Z 24.7N 169.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND FOR ALL OF
MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...
LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.1 WEST...OR
ABOUT 210 MILES...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 375
MILES...EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WITH RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY FELICIA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF
FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 152.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
WELL REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION THAT
REMAINS DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30 KT
ACCORDING TO THE 0000 UTC UW/CIMSS ESTIMATE. SINCE NO FURTHER AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS INTO FELICIA ARE SCHEDULED...WE WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...THAT SHOULD OCCUR AT ABOUT
0440 UTC TONIGHT...TO CONFIRM IF FELICIA IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A CURRENT MOTION OF 270 DEGREES
AT 9 KT. SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT A DEEP SYSTEM...ITS MOTION
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONTROLLED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BRING FELICIA ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE STATE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
LITTLE VARIATION IN THE ALONG TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48
HOURS WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE MODELS FORECAST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW TO BEND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER PASSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND INTO A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SUPPORT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG SHEAR... WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF FELICIA DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS
AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEYOND 48 HOURS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES THAT
FELICIA WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FELICIA
MAY UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
CIRCULATION SPINS DOWN FASTER AND NO DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 20.9N 152.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 20.9N 153.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 21.0N 155.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 21.2N 157.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 13/0000Z 21.4N 159.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0000Z 21.9N 163.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0000Z 23.2N 166.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z 24.9N 169.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB

[Kingarabian]

Winds remain at 40-45mph...

[jinftl]

Down to 40mph now.....felicia is on her deathbed....what an interesting life she had though...

excerpt from 5pm HST discussion:

THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES THAT
FELICIA WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FELICIA
MAY UNDERGO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE
CIRCULATION SPINS DOWN FASTER AND NO DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.



New advisory:

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND FOR ALL OF
MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...
LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.1 WEST...OR
ABOUT 210 MILES...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 375
MILES...EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WITH RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY FELICIA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF
FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 152.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

A ghost of a tropical storm

[jinftl]

NWS Honolulu has scaled back the wind forecast for Honolulu some....i would not be surprised to see this scaled back even further by morning


NWS Forecast for: Honolulu HI
Issued by: National Weather Service Honolulu, HI
Last Update: 4:30 pm HST Aug 10, 2009
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Tuesday: Occasional showers, mainly after noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 83. Northeast wind between 9 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday Night: Occasional showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 76. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 26 mph becoming north between 31 and 34 mph. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph.
Wednesday: Occasional showers, mainly before noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 87. Heat index values as high as 96. Windy, with a southeast wind 31 to 34 mph becoming east 10 to 13 mph. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph.



Forecast for Hilo...winds between 5 and 8 mph!!! Not a joke....actual forecast...i think it will be safe to assume there will be limited wind damage.

NWS Forecast for: Hilo HI
Issued by: National Weather Service Honolulu, HI
Last Update: 4:30 pm HST Aug 10, 2009
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Tuesday: Showers likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming east between 5 and 8 mph.
Tuesday Night: Occasional showers, mainly before midnight. Low around 74. East wind between 3 and 8 mph.
Wednesday: Occasional showers, mainly after noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 80. East wind between 3 and 7 mph.