Kingarabian wrote:Yeah the TWC said a warning or watch might be put into effect soon. Does the strong shear kick in today or tomorrow?
Probably around tomorrow. Due to the fact I feel no desire to be punished by not posting the correct disclaimers, I'll just post a snippet from a recent NHC discussion (the one from 21 hr ago, in fact):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/ep ... .018.shtml?
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH
OF FELICIA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS
FORECAST FELICIA TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...
A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND A
WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS EVOLUTION BLOCKING THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF FELICIA...CAUSING THE STORM TO
SHEAR APART IN ABOUT 48 HR.
Of course, a TS watch would IMO still be warranted since there's a pretty gigantic shear gradient around 20N forecasted by global models. A few degrees latitude north, Felicia's dead 12-24 hr after it hits the shear. A few degrees latitude south, would be likely a different story.
EDIT: to corroborate the above, another snippet from the same discussion:
IF FELICIA
MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SSTS
AND LESS SHEAR...WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE INTO STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF HAWAII AND
HASTEN ITS DEMISE.
