WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 08, 2009 10:07 pm

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 136.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 136.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.5N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 32.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.4N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 136.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 08, 2009 10:09 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 090000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 26.3N 136.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 32.1N 134.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 139E 42N 142E
47N 153E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 34N 160E 33N 139E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 35N 157E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 53N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA AT 18N 108E SOUTH SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 42N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 150E TO 35N 157E 35N 161E 36N 164E 35N
170E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0908 MORAKOT (0908) 975 HPA AT 26.1N 120.6E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 7:21 am

WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA
AT 27.2N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 31.6N 134.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 140E 42N 141E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 33N 160E 33N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 36N 158E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 52N 160E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 42N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 150E TO 34N 155E 36N 158E 35N 165E 37N 170E
38N 173E.
REMARKS.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0908 MORAKOT (0908) 975 HPA AT 26.5N 120.6E :
SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 7:34 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 28.1N 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.3N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.5N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 34.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 36.2N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 38.6N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 135.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W
(TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN,
HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ANIMATED IMAGERY AND A
080143Z TRMM IMAGE THAT THERE MIGHT BE A SECOND CIRCULATION CENTER,
POSSIBLY AT THE MID-LEVEL, ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE OF CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP A HEALTHY OUTFLOW
CHANNEL DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MASS BEING EVACUATED BY 09W TO
THE WEST, AND THIS IS KEEPING THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING. CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A DVORAK FIX BY PGTW. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TIGHT GROUPING OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS NEAR
THE COAST OF JAPAN AND STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE DIFFLUENT REGION
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY. THIS FORECASTS REFLECTS THIS BY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z
AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 7:59 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 27.9N 135.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 31.9N 135.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:20 am

Image

Shouldn't be much of a problem for Japan
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:38 am

ZCZC 097
WTPQ51 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 28.2N 135.3E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 32.9N 135.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 111200UTC 35.0N 143.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 121200UTC 36.8N 149.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 131200UTC 38.4N 152.8E 350NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
120HF 141200UTC 40.5N 155.2E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT =
NNNN


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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:45 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 28.9N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.1N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 33.0N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 34.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.1N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 134.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W
(ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#29 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 09, 2009 10:50 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 28.8N 135.1E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 32.7N 136.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 111200UTC 35.0N 143.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 121200UTC 36.8N 149.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 4:46 pm

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 29.7N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 33.7N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 38.7N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 30.3N 134.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 10W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH ON THIS FORECAST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 10W
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND IS BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT TRACK SPEED IS SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BASED ON A CORRECTION IN THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED POSITIONS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN HONSHU ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE FORECASTED
RECURVATURE AROUND THE STR AXIS, BRINGING TS 10W ONTO A EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET, LOCATED OVER JAPAN, IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPROVING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOT OVER THE 24 HOURS.
BEYOND TAU 24, TS 10W WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 4:55 pm

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May bring some rains to Japan
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:47 pm

ZCZC 809
WTPQ51 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 30.0N 134.7E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 33.8N 138.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120000UTC 36.9N 148.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 130000UTC 38.3N 149.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 140000UTC 39.8N 152.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
120HF 150000UTC 44.6N 157.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT =
NNNN


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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:10 pm

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Looking good
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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#34 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:35 am

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#35 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:23 am

ZCZC 373
WTPQ51 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 31.1N 135.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 34.2N 140.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 120600UTC 34.7N 146.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 130600UTC 36.6N 151.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 140600UTC 41.7N 155.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
120HF 150600UTC 46.6N 162.3E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT =
NNNN


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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#36 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:27 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 30.8N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.3N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 33.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 34.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.5N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 37.8N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 134.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (ETAU),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALSO EVIDENT IN MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY IS AN IMPROVING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY OUTFLOW PATTERN
AS THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS INFLUENCED BY 09W OVER WESTERN CHINA.
A 100418Z AMSR-E 36GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS.
POSITION IS BASED ON POSITION FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW, AND
INTENSITY IS BASED ON LOCAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS IT CONTINUES TO RECURVE IT WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AND THEN HEAD ON A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU
12. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL START INTERACTING WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST. AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH, IT WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE ON BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS AFTER TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. TRACK IS BASED ON AN EXCELLENT
GROUPING OF NUMERICAL MODELS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 9:47 am

ZCZC 922
WTPQ51 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0909 ETAU (0909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 32.0N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 85NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 34.4N 141.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 121200UTC 35.1N 147.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 131200UTC 37.0N 152.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 141200UTC 41.3N 157.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
120HF 151200UTC 44.4N 166.9E 450NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT =
NNNN
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:37 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (ETAU) WARNING NR 011
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 31.7N 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.0N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 33.7N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 34.2N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 35.3N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 136.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W
(ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
NNNN
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#39 Postby theavocado » Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:44 pm

In 2003, there was also an Etau, which made Typhoon strength, and struck in western Japan, on August 9th and 10th.

Right now there is an interesting phenomenon happening, and that is a resurgence of articles from 2003 with the year changed to 2009. The current Etau never made Typhoon strength, topping out around 40kts or so (depending on the agency) and never actually made landfall in Japan. Also, it never had the horizontal extent to dump record setting amount of precipitation on Japan.

Yet, if you do a Google news search for Etau, there are thousands of articles about the system making landfall, causing mudslides, and killing 13 people. Interestingly, there is little variation in the story, all the facts are the same, all the quotes are the same. It seems like one article got on the AP wire and has been republished thousands of times.

Curious.
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Re: WPAC: TS ETAU (0909/10W)

#40 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:17 pm

Image

Image

Looking great
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