EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E

[RL3AO]

Side note: This is eight straight invests that have developed in the East Pacific.

[cycloneye]

479
WTPZ44 KNHC 092034
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 09 2009

ALTHOUGH TINY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS QUICKLY
ATTAINED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE BANDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
WARRANT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT
1800 UTC. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND ABOUT 800 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO ALSO
BUILD WESTWARD...STEERING T.D. NINE-E ON A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE GFS AND UKMET DO NOT INITIALIZE A VORTEX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM...AND THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS ONLY INITIALIZE A WEAK
VORTEX...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRST
FORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LEANS HEAVILY ON THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODEL TRACKS AND DOES
NOT SHOW THE DEPRESSION GAINING MUCH LATITUDE.

THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY CAUSE IT TO HAVE QUICK
CHANGES IN INTENSITY...MUCH LIKE THAT OBSERVED IN HURRICANE CARLOS
EARLIER THIS SEASON. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW
MUCH STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END
OF THE GUIDANCE CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN IN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME AT ALL IF T.D. NINE-E WAS TO STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SEVERAL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM FORMING NEAR 138W IN ABOUT THREE
TO FOUR DAYS AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS
MIGHT BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING SHOWN IN THE MODELS AT DAYS
4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.0N 120.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 14.2N 121.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 14.9N 124.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 16.0N 131.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

D-min not being nice to 9E

[HURAKAN]

333
WHXX01 KMIA 100044
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC MON AUG 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (EP092009) 20090810 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090810 0000 090810 1200 090811 0000 090811 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 120.9W 14.9N 122.8W 15.5N 125.0W 16.3N 127.2W
BAMD 14.5N 120.9W 14.8N 122.1W 15.1N 123.4W 15.6N 124.7W
BAMM 14.5N 120.9W 14.8N 122.5W 15.3N 124.2W 15.8N 126.0W
LBAR 14.5N 120.9W 14.9N 122.4W 15.7N 124.3W 16.8N 126.4W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090812 0000 090813 0000 090814 0000 090815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 129.2W 18.6N 133.6W 19.7N 138.2W 21.1N 143.7W
BAMD 16.0N 126.1W 16.5N 129.2W 16.9N 133.0W 17.7N 137.1W
BAMM 16.4N 127.7W 17.4N 131.1W 17.9N 134.6W 18.4N 138.8W
LBAR 18.2N 128.8W 21.6N 133.6W 25.7N 136.4W 30.2N 136.7W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 41KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 44KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 120.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 119.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 118.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 100240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 09 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SEEN EARLY TODAY HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE A SOMEWHAT SHAPELESS
AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.

LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION...HOWEVER AT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE
NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND A
UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSE ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT MODERATE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE PATH OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF THIS...MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 14.8N 121.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.0N 122.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 15.4N 124.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.8N 126.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.2N 128.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 16.9N 131.7W 50 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 17.0N 135.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 101432
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2009

AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
T.D. NINE-E...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE ILL-DEFINED. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0549 UTC CONFIRMED THAT THE
SYSTEM HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SINCE THE STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS NOT IMPROVED SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 30 KT.

THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THAT TIME. THIS IS DELAYED
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL SOONER THAN
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS BY THAT TIME. AS SUCH...THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY IS CAPPED AT 40 KT WITH WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5.
THE GFS AND GFDL ACTUALLY LOSE THE VORTEX BEFORE THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
LAST FIVE DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/08...AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE MODEL SPREAD IS SMALL THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH TURNS THE DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST AND
DISSIPATES IT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR 138W IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS RESPONDING BY SHOWING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 14.9N 123.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.1N 124.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 126.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 15.9N 127.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 16.2N 129.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 133.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 137.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Becoming exposed

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite bad now

[cycloneye]

523
WTPZ44 KNHC 102038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 18 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS
TAKEN A TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
EXPOSED FOR A TIME TO THE WEST OF BURSTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ANY
APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION AS IT PREDICTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS.
MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FURTHER WEAKENING OR DISSIPATION
AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS
COULD OCCUR EVEN EARLIER.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTH OF WEST FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
275/10. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE REASON
FOR THE SYSTEM TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF THE CYCLONE
SURVIVES THAT LONG. THE FORWARD SPEED IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.1N 124.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 15.2N 125.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 15.4N 127.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 15.6N 129.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 15.6N 131.3W 25 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 15.5N 135.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Completely exposed now

[HURAKAN]

256
WTPZ34 KNHC 110235
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST OR ABOUT
1145 MILES...1845 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.1N 125.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


751
WTPZ44 KNHC 110237
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR. MORE RECENTLY THE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND IS EXHIBITING
SLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE. HOWEVER...THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH AGENCIES ARE 2.0...WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING NEAR THE BASE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72
HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST NO
STRENGTHENING AND MANY SHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE FUTURE OF DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON ITS
SURVIVAL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THEREAFTER THE MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
TURN IT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND NOT GAIN MUCH LATITUDE.
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 15.1N 125.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 15.3N 126.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 15.5N 128.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 15.6N 130.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 15.6N 132.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 136.3W 25 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite bad

[HURAKAN]

710
WTPZ44 KNHC 111434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE-E HAS AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD PATH DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS
FORECAST A DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION TO
DEVELOP...THUS POSSIBLY CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
INTERACT. SINCE THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THE FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION WILL CALL FOR A
WESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HR AND A RESULTING LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM WEAK...WITH ONLY THE HWRF
CURRENTLY CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KT. BASED
ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS...IT COULD ABSORB TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AS
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 15.1N 127.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 15.1N 128.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 15.1N 130.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.0N 132.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 15.0N 134.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 15.0N 138.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Continues exposed

[HURAKAN]

Hanging in there

[CrazyC83]

It is better than it was a few hours ago...some convection trying to form...

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 112041
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE-E IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH THE CENTER OCCASIONALLY COVERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM PUFFS OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
OVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IT IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND
DRY AIR. THIS COULD BE RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER. THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD PATH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MODELS RESPONSE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION...THE LARGE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
SOCORRO ISLAND...AND A PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ NEAR 8N123W. THE
NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET STILL
FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT INTERACTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD...IN THEORY...BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE CURRENT POOR
ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 15.1N 128.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 15.0N 130.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 132.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 14.9N 134.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 14.7N 136.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 14.5N 140.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 14.0N 144.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 147.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Exposed again

[HURAKAN]

212
WTPZ24 KNHC 120247
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.2W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.2W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 129.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 131.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.7N 133.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.4N 135.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.1N 137.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.6N 140.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 13.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 147.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 130.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

783
WTPZ34 KNHC 120249
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION WEAKENS...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1435 MILES...2310 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 130.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



371
WTPZ44 KNHC 120250
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION THIS
EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WERE INTERMITTENT DURING THE
DAY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY
DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. IT APPEARS
THAT DRY AIR AND NOT SHEAR IS WHAT HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE
CYCLONE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL BRING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTHEN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
STRENGTHENING THE DEPRESSION TO AROUND 50 KT IN 4-5 DAYS. DESPITE
THE RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PREDICT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT
REDEVELOP TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 265/11. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW UNANIMOUSLY TURNS
THE DEPRESSION WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.9N 130.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 131.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.7N 133.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.4N 135.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.1N 137.1W 35 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 13.6N 140.7W 35 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 13.5N 144.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 147.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN