EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.3 WEST OR ABOUT
1510 MILES...2425 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.7N 131.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

THE DEPRESSION IS HANGING ON AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME...WITH A FEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
THE AREA HAS RELAXED...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT IN A VERY
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. IF THE DEPRESSION IS ABLE TO
SURVIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON
THIS PREMISE...BUT...GIVEN THE LOWLY CURRENT STATE OF THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.

SATELLITE FIXES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST
MOTION...ABOUT 265/11. A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST-ORIENTED
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...ALONG WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SEEM TO
BE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS FOR A MAINTENANCE OF A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. HENCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4-5.
THE NHC TRACK IS JUST A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE ONE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.7N 131.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.6N 132.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.4N 134.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 14.1N 136.4W 25 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 13.7N 138.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 12.5N 144.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 13.0N 147.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 121439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...WHICH IS MAINTAINING JUST ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IT
FROM BEING CONSIDERED A REMNANT LOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS DOES THE GFDL. IN THE CASE OF SHIPS THE
DRIVING PREDICTOR IS THE SST POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS IN FACT NO
LESS FAVORABLE NOW THAN IT WILL BE IN FIVE DAYS...SO I AM
SKEPTICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME STRENGTHENING AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AID ICON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE TRACK BECOMES
LESS CLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS SOME UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. OF COURSE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH OR DEEP ENOUGH TO FEEL THESE INFLUENCES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN DIRECTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET
AND HWRF. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO ITS
EAST...AND CONSEQUENTLY INDICATE A MUCH SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN
TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.6N 132.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.4N 134.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 136.2W 25 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 13.5N 138.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 13.2N 139.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 13.0N 142.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 145.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 13.0N 148.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

If the forecast of the NHC verifies, the CPAC will have another named system.

[somethingfunny]

Twelve advisories and it's still a depression....this may be a dumb question but what's the longest a depression has persisted without either becoming a tropical storm or dissipating?

[HURAKAN]

163
WHXX01 KMIA 121840
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (EP092009) 20090812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 0600 090813 1800 090814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 132.7W 13.7N 134.5W 12.9N 136.2W 12.1N 137.7W
BAMD 14.2N 132.7W 14.1N 134.7W 14.0N 136.8W 13.8N 138.7W
BAMM 14.2N 132.7W 13.9N 134.6W 13.2N 136.6W 12.4N 138.6W
LBAR 14.2N 132.7W 14.0N 134.8W 14.1N 137.1W 14.4N 139.4W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800 090817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 139.0W 10.7N 139.7W 10.1N 139.0W 9.3N 138.4W
BAMD 13.6N 140.6W 12.7N 144.4W 12.0N 148.2W 11.8N 151.3W
BAMM 11.9N 140.6W 10.6N 143.7W 9.4N 145.8W 8.8N 147.0W
LBAR 14.6N 141.7W 14.9N 146.2W 15.1N 150.3W 15.9N 153.9W
SHIP 47KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS
DSHP 47KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 132.7W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 130.5W DIRM12 = 257DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 128.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Back up to 30 kt, so it may still become a named storm after all. Will it be the G or H storm though?

[masaji79]

If it gets a name before crossing 140 it will be Guillermo, if it gets named after crossing 140 it will be the next name on the Hawaiian list, Neki. I wonder if it would be a record, having three named CPAC systems within one month?

[HURAKAN]

If it gets a name before crossing 140 it will be Guillermo, if it gets named after crossing 140 it will be the next name on the Hawaiian list, Neki. I wonder if it would be a record, having three named CPAC systems within one month?

Guillermo or Hilda, remember that 10-E is looking much better and could be named earlier.

[CrazyC83]

If it gets a name before crossing 140 it will be Guillermo, if it gets named after crossing 140 it will be the next name on the Hawaiian list, Neki. I wonder if it would be a record, having three named CPAC systems within one month?

Guillermo or Hilda, remember that 10-E is looking much better and could be named earlier.

IMO, 10E should be named at the next advisory, so this might be Hilda (a backwards-order, similar to Humberto and Ingrid in 2007).

[HURAKAN]

Looking bad but it seems things will get better in the future

[HURAKAN]

004
WTPZ34 KNHC 122036
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1640 MILES...2640 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.1N 133.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


003
WTPZ24 KNHC 122036
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.2W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.2W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.7N 134.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.2N 136.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.5N 139.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 12.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 133.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


776
WTPZ44 KNHC 122037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL...THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
REQUIRES THAT THE WINDS BE ADJUSTED TO 30 KT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS
ALSO REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE STARTING TO LOSE
DEFINITION. BETWEEN THE LIMITED CONVECTION AND THE MARGINAL
CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR
DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL ALL INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL RESTRENGTHEN...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
DISSIPATION. AS NOTED EARLIER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW FAVORS
THE GLOBAL MODEL...AND HWRF...SOLUTIONS AND NO LONGER SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT.

THERE IS ALSO A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE
GFS...ECMWF...BAM SHALLOW AND GFDL SHOWING A SLOW MOTION AND
EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT IS STILL MUCH FASTER THAN THIS
GROUP OF MODELS. THE ALTERNATIVE...AND NOW LESS FAVORED SOLUTION
OF A CONTINUED BRISK WESTWARD TRACK...IS OFFERED BY THE
UKMET...GFDN/NOGAPS...AND BAM DEEP.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 14.1N 133.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 13.7N 134.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 13.2N 136.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 12.7N 138.1W 25 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 12.5N 139.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 12.5N 140.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 12.5N 142.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 12.5N 143.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

13/0000 UTC 14.0N 133.6W TOO WEAK 09E

As good as dead.

[HouTXmetro]

Are my eyes deceiving me, or does is TD 10 forecast to Leap Frog TD 9? I don't understand how this can happen.

[HURAKAN]

561
WTPZ44 KNHC 130243
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL. THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ELONGATED.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A REMNANT LOW BUT IT COULD STILL BE ABLE TO
TRIGGER A FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8 TO 10 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-GENERATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IF IT DOES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED BUT FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ONE. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 13.9N 134.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 14/0000Z 13.0N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 12.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Dead for now at least. Could regenerate though.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 130257
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009

CORRECTED FOR HIGH SEAS HEADERS IN LAST PARAGRAPH

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL. THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ELONGATED.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A REMNANT LOW BUT IT COULD STILL BE ABLE TO
TRIGGER A FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8 TO 10 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-GENERATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IF IT DOES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED BUT FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ONE. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 13.9N 134.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 14/0000Z 13.0N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 12.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

I think it came back overnight...I'd resume advisories at 8 am personally, I think it is a tropical cyclone again...

[CrazyC83]

Certainly looks like a TD or even a TS to me...

[KWT]

Yep I think thats probably a tropical depression once again, I suspect they will restart advisories again as well soon if it holds for any time.

[CrazyC83]

Code orange right now.