CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)

[Derek Ortt]

Maka has been hit hard by shear

[clfenwi]

Everyone's ~0Z Dvorak estimates indicated a weakening trend.

I see a Quikscat image with 40 kt barbs, but it was from ~17Z.

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA33 PHFO 120254
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

...MAKA DOWNGRADED BACK TO A DEPRESSION...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1135 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.9N 173.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

000
WTPA43 PHFO 120307
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

MAKA IS PROVING TO BE A DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO HANDLE. THERE IS EVEN
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
THE POSSIBILITY THAT MAKA MAY ACTUALLY BE A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH.
AMBIGUITY DATA FROM THE 1704 UTC QUICKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED A
POSSIBLE CENTER NEAR 13.7N 172.4W...WHICH IS SOUTHEAST OF THE 1800
UTC INITIAL POSITION. THIS FEATURE WAS USED TO RELOCATE THE INITIAL
CENTER POSITION TO 13.8N 173.3W...AND IS ALSO SOUTH OF AN APPARENT
MID-LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 15.1N 172.7W. FIXES FROM
PHFO...PGTW AND SAB SHOWED WIDE SCATTER INDICATING THE UNCERTAINTY
IN INITIAL POSITION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PHFO AND PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATES CAME UP WITH FT VALUES OF 2.0...30 KT WITH CI/S OF 35 KT
HELD UP BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. SAB WAS AT 30 KT ON CURRENT
INTENSITY. A 2330 UTC AMSU ESTIMATE SHOWED 28 KT. GIVEN THE DVORAK
VALUES AND THE DEGRADATION OF ORGANIZATION AS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT WHICH IS
BY DEFINITION A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA IS MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART
A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SAME GENERAL PATH BUT VARY ON THE DEGREE
OF TURN. THE GFS AND GFDL REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN ON THE LEFT. HWRF...NOGAPS AND
TVCN ARE IN THE MIDDLE. EVEN THE THREE BETA ADVECTION MODELS LINE
UP CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS...THOUGH WITH VARYING SPEEDS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF MAKA REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE OBJECTIVE
AIDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
GFDL/GHMI SHOWING 110 KT AND HWRF 25 KT BY 120 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...SST/S UNDER MAKA SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 28C AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. VERTICAL SHEAR...AT 6.4 M/S BASED
ON THE 0000 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS...SHOULD NOT BE A DEBILITATING
FACTOR. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF MAKA/S TRACK...WHICH WILL INCREASE
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 12 TO 48 HOURS BUT A GENERAL
WEAKENING FROM 48 TO 120 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.
THIS IS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ICON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ASSUMES MAKA SURVIVES
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 13.9N 173.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.2N 174.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.8N 176.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 15.5N 177.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 16.3N 179.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 178.3E 35 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 20.8N 176.3E 30 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 23.4N 173.9E 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[CrazyC83]

Is this correct: if it dissipates into a wave or remnant low, crosses 180 and regenerates there, it takes a new WPAC name?

[HURAKAN]

Is this correct: if it dissipates into a wave or remnant low, crosses 180 and regenerates there, it takes a new WPAC name?

Seems correct.

[HURAKAN]

The intensity forecast is all over the place. Advisory #4 had a 75 knots typhoon in 5 days, now it has a 25 knots depression!

[Ad Novoxium]

Is this correct: if it dissipates into a wave or remnant low, crosses 180 and regenerates there, it takes a new WPAC name?

Seems correct.

I think it depends on continuity. If Maka dissipates and crosses 180, it retains its name if the storm is easy to track via satellite or recon and has sufficient evidence to prove that they're the same cyclone at the time. (Ex: Georgette in 1986 dissipated in the CPac, crossed the dateline, and restrengthened into a typhoon, but kept the same name, Enrique in 1991 restrengthened, but retained the same name)

However, if it dissipates, and continuity can't be ascertained during the forecast period, it's probably going to be renamed. (Ex: Upana of 2000 dissipated east of the dateline, crossed, and was renamed Chanchu due to some doubt as to the nature of Upana's dissipation and Chanchu's formation).

[clfenwi]

Well, some of the gap between the GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts has disappeared, with the gap narrowing to Maka's favor. So, if it's not dead, it's got a bright future!

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA33 PHFO 120847
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 305 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1125
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OF THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 173.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG


000
WTPA43 PHFO 120917
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA REMAINS A MYSTERY...WITH ITS CIRCULATION
CENTER AND ITS OVERALL APPEARANCE CHANGING WITH ALMOST EVERY GOES
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. AS A RESULT...THE POSITION FIXES
OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAVE BEEN WIDELY SPREAD...BUT WITH A
GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST PROGRESSION. THE CENTER POSITION WITH THIS
PACKAGE IS MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PHFO...SAB...AND PG
FIXES. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PG CAME IN WITH AN FT VALUE OF
1.5...25 KT WITH A CI OF 2.5...35 KT HELD UP BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.
THE SAME GOES FOR PHFO WITH AN FT OF 2.0 AND A CI OF 2.5. MALA AT
06IO UTC LOOKED MORE DISORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO SO WILL STICK
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

MAKA IS MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MALA TO ASSUME A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OBJECTIVE AIDES ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN SPREAD OUT THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TC ON GINA AND TN CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE OBJECTIVE AIDES
CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIDE SPREAD...WITH THE HIM SHOWING 115 KT GODEL
105 KT AND AVNI 25 KT AT 120 HOURS. THE REST OF THE AIDES ARE
EVENLY SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXTREMES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAKA TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED AND THE WARM SSTS IT WILL BE OVER.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF MAKA...WHICH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS CALLS FOR A GENERAL
WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.6N 173.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.9N 174.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.3N 176.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.8N 178.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.5N 179.8E 45 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 178.0E 35 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 21.4N 176.0E 30 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 24.9N 173.8E 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[HURAKAN]

Far from any landmass

[HURAKAN]

Looks quite bad

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA33 PHFO 121445
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2009

...POORLY DEFINED MAKA OVER THE OPEN OCEAN EAST OF THE DATE
LINE...

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
173.9 WEST OR ABOUT 955 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND AND
ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER...AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...MAKA MAY CROSS THE
DATE LINE INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IF IT
SURVIVES...MAKA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...MAKA MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AGAIN LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 173.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON


000
WTPA43 PHFO 121505
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2009

POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA...WHICH HAS SPORADIC AND
WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME...MAY
NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AT
0532 UTC. AT THAT TIME...THERE WAS A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE HI-RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT WIND FIELD. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0829 UTC...WHICH HAS A MUCH
SMALLER SWATH...ALSO SUGGESTED THERE WAS A SURFACE TROUGH. BOTH OF
THESE PLATFORMS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT RAIN FLAGS...UNDERNEATH THE APPARENT CLOUD-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER...OR CENTERS WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. SO THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE ACTUAL INITIAL LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...THE POSITION FIXES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CENTER
POSITION USED FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
PHFO...SAB...AND PGTW FIXES...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EXTRAPOLATION
BASED ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES RANGED FROM 1.0 TO 1.5.
THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORTED 30 KT SURFACE WINDS...SO WILL MAINTAIN
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NEAR LATITUDE 36N. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 280 DEG / 06 KT. THE GFS
MODEL SUGGESTS THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MAKA
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN WITH A RATHER TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL FORECAST TRACKS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DURING DAYS
3 TO 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
THEREAFTER. THIS IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE GFDI MODEL AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...SUCH AS GUNA...TCON AND TVCN.

WITH THE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF MAKA...THE GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS INITIAL LOCATION AND THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
THAT IT HAS NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES
TO TAKE MAKA ACROSS 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CIRA OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT ALSO SHOWS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE VALUES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 4. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ESTIMATE SHOWS MAKA IS ENCOUNTERING 14 KT OF SHEAR FROM 225
DEG. THE OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SHEAR DECREASING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER
AND LOWERING SHEAR FORECAST...HAVE FOLLOWED THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE FROM GFDI...HWRF AND SHIPS...AND KEEP MAKA A TROPICAL
STORM THROUGH DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS STILL WEAKER THAN THE
GFDI...WHICH INTENSIFIES MAKA TO A 79 KT TYPHOON ON DAY 5 AFTER IT
CROSSES THE DATE LINE INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.8N 173.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.1N 175.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.6N 177.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.3N 178.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 17.2N 179.9E 45 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 19.4N 178.1E 50 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 22.1N 176.3E 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 174.4E 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[HURAKAN]

250
WHXX01 KMIA 121845
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1845 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKA (CP012009) 20090812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 0600 090813 1800 090814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 174.3W 15.5N 176.5W 16.0N 178.7W 16.6N 179.3E
BAMD 14.9N 174.3W 15.4N 175.9W 15.8N 177.2W 16.4N 178.2W
BAMM 14.9N 174.3W 15.4N 176.2W 15.8N 177.9W 16.2N 179.3W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800 090817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 177.5E 18.2N 174.5E 19.8N 173.0E 21.2N 171.9E
BAMD 17.3N 178.9W 20.6N 178.6E 23.8N 174.7E 26.1N 171.0E
BAMM 16.6N 179.4E 18.8N 177.3E 21.8N 175.3E 23.5N 173.0E
SHIP 33KTS 33KTS 36KTS 37KTS
DSHP 33KTS 33KTS 36KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 174.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 173.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 171.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA33 PHFO 122032
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
1100 AM HST WED AUG 12 2009

...MAKA DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT REDEVELOPMENT
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
174.7 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND AND ABOUT 1185
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
9 MPH. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 174.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



000
WTPA43 PHFO 122032
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
1100 AM HST WED AUG 12 2009

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...MAKA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TO THE
POINT WHERE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CANNOT BE IDENTIFIED.
ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST ONLY THE PRESENCE OF A SHARP
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN AN AREA OF 28C SST VALUES
AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SO REDEVELOPMENT IS A POSSIBILITY AND
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA ISSUED
BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. IF REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS
EAST OF THE DATELINE...CPHC WILL RESUME THE ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.0N 174.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 15.4N 176.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1800Z...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[HURAKAN]

Had a very short track

[CrazyC83]

Agreed with calling it a wave - I don't see a circulation there.

[clfenwi]

13/2030 UTC 13.7N 178.2E T2.0/2.0 MAKA -- West Pacific

ABPW10 PGTW 132130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/132130Z-142130ZAUG2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3N 178.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. THIS AREA IS
THE REMNANTS OF TD 01C. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED LLCC BASED ON A 131750Z QUIKSCAT
PASS. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND SHOWS
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH CURVED INFLOW BEGINNING
TO BE APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE AREA, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
LLCC TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING. SST AND OHC THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. BASED ON GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A DEVELOPING
LLCC, WITH GOOD SST AND OHC, IN A LOW TO MODERATE VWS ENVIRONMENT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[CrazyC83]

Is JMA saying anything about this, since it is now their responsibility?

[wyq614]

JMA has issued a warning for Maka

[RattleMan]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 13.6N 177.8E SEA EAST OF MARSHALLS MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.