CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO (10E)

[RL3AO]

EP, 10, 2009081306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1199W, 45, 999, TS

[hawaiigirl]

[Kingarabian]

Sexy.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2009

GUILLERMO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MICROWAVE
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
WRAPS MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.0...WHICH SUPPORTS RAISING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...DURING THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS OF
AROUND 65 KT...WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY CONSENSUS. EVEN
THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS GUILLERMO JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH...THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE SHOWS THAT
GUILLERMO HAS ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING A HURRICANE AT THE
36 OR 48 HOUR FORECAST TIMES.

THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS UNCHANGED AT
290/14. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THEREAFTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE NEW
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 16.9N 120.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 17.2N 122.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 17.6N 125.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 18.0N 127.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 130.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 19.1N 135.8W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 141.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 147.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

EP, 10, 2009081312, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1210W, 55, 994, TS

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 131438
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2009

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A
TRANSIENT EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITHIN A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THESE INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION SUGGEST GUILLERMO IS LIKELY
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 3.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO AROUND
140W. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY SMALL DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE HWRF AND GFDL. THE LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS IS AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN GUILLERMO AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.
WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS AS A MORE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES...IT MIGHT NOT BE LONG TILL
GUILLERMO BECOMES A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 26.5C IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THIS TIME. BASED UPON THESE
FACTORS...IT APPEARS THAT GUILLERMO WILL HAVE A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GUILLERMO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 36 HOURS. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
LATER IN THE PERIOD SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT GUILLERMO COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST BEYOND
72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.1N 121.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 123.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 17.9N 126.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.3N 129.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 131.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 143.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 148.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HouTXmetro]

So is it still scheduled to catch up with TD9? How can this happen with both systems moving westward?

[Cookie]

one slower then the other?

[HouTXmetro]

Umm, But I would imagine that at some point they would be under the same steering influence. I'm puzzled.

[HURAKAN]

Likely another rainmaker for Hawaii

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's developing an eye

[Kingarabian]

Its looking very nice. I wonder if it has the same fate Felicia had?

[HurricaneRobert]

It could ramp up even faster since it doesn't have another cyclone in its orbit.

[Macrocane]

It has a good structure, but I don't think it is trying to develop an eye it seems that it has swallowed some dry air.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 132038
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
200 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2009

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. IN FACT...THE EARLIER
SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE FEATURE. ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH ALSO IS SUPPORTED
BY A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...ALL INDICATING STRENGTHENING TO A LOW END
HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 36
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE
LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND A GENERAL EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS
INDICATED AS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
MODEL AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.2N 123.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 17.6N 125.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.2N 127.9W 70 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 130.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 19.4N 133.6W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 139.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 21.0N 144.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 21.0N 149.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[brunota2003]

Umm, But I would imagine that at some point they would be under the same steering influence. I'm puzzled.

One system is controlled by the low level flows, while the other is controlled more by the upper levels (due to it being vertically deep).

[HurricaneRobert]

It looks like a hurricane already.

[HouTXmetro]

Umm, But I would imagine that at some point they would be under the same steering influence. I'm puzzled.

One system is controlled by the low level flows, while the other is controlled more by the upper levels (due to it being vertically deep).

Thanks

[somethingfunny]

Its looking very nice. I wonder if it has the same fate Felicia had?

I think it's unlikely Guillermo will get as strong as Felicia. It's also gaining latitude sooner than Felicia did so it'll begin weakening further to the east. Nothing more than a low-level swirl, if that, will reach Hawaii.

In my below-average amateur opinion, that is.