WPAC: TYPHOON VAMCO (11W)

[Chacor]

Not exactly sure why JMA is so inconsistent with including their 96 and 120 hour forecast points (new for this season) in their bulletins. They didn't in some earlier ones but have now.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 157.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 157.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.7N 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.8N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.4N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.2N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 28.4N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 33.5N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 41.9N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 157.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM WEST OF WAKE
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 19.8N 156.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 22.9N 155.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 230000UTC 26.3N 154.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 240000UTC 29.8N 153.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot better

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 156.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 156.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.2N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.3N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.5N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.0N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.0N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.3N 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 156.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM WEST OF WAKE
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT AND
SYMMETRIC TYPHOON, WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING
FROM 105 TO 115 KNOTS. THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH GIVES THE SYSTEM EVEN MORE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THROUGH TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A REORIENTATING AND BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU
72, 11W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM WILL START
TO WEAKEN DUE TO DROPPING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 11W WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 38
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 617
WTPQ51 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 21.1N 156.7E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 23.9N 155.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 231200UTC 27.2N 154.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 241200UTC 31.3N 153.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 251200UTC 37.3N 156.7E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
120HF 261200UTC 45.2N 163.9E 500NM 70%
MOVE NNE 24KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful storm that is being outshined by Bill

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 156.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 156.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.1N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.3N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.6N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 30.0N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 35.8N 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 45.5N 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 156.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 38
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

[HurricaneRobert]

It's headed for Massacre Bay!

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look great

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 172
WTPQ51 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 22.1N 156.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 26.1N 156.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 231800UTC 30.6N 155.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 241800UTC 36.5N 156.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 251800UTC 42.2N 161.7E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
120HF 261800UTC 47.9N 168.6E 500NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 587
WTPQ51 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 23.5N 156.7E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 28.3N 155.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 240000UTC 33.1N 155.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 250000UTC 41.0N 160.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 260000UTC 47.0N 169.8E 425NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 23.6N 156.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 156.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.9N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.3N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 31.3N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 34.4N 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 41.2N 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 50.2N 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 156.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 33
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 25.6N 155.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 30.5N 154.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 241200UTC 36.3N 156.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 251200UTC 45.9N 164.0E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.7N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 30.1N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 33.0N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 36.3N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 47.2N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 155.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS AND MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Alcan Harbor? That's rare, to see an Aleutian Island in a JTWC track forecast!

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look great

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 691
WTPQ21 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0910 VAMCO (0910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 27.1N 155.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 31.8N 154.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 241800UTC 38.5N 157.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 251800UTC 48.3N 168.5E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 26.5N 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.8N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 31.1N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.0N 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 38.5N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 49.1N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 155.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE EYE HAS DEGRADED TO TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS. THE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES THAT A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS A REGION OF
DRIER AIR HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF VAMCO AND HAS STARTED TO
WRAP IN TOWARDS THE LLCC. THE DRY AIR HAS NOT FULLY WRAPPED INTO THE
LLCC, BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS STARTED TO
ENHANCE A WEAK WESTERN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE PAST 06 HOURS, HELPING
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY, HOWEVER, AS VAMCO CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD A SECOND REGION OF DRY AIR NORTH OF VAMCO
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE PREVIOUSLY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF TY 11W. VAMCO IS STARTING
TO BE ISOLATED FROM THE WARMER TROPICAL AIR MASSES LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH WITH DRY AIR ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING THE SYSTEM. OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
TAU 24, BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS VAMCO MOVES NORTH OF
32N. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

230200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 27.5N 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 29.6N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 31.8N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 35.2N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 40.2N 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 155.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN