CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA (11E)

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908211253
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2009, DB, O, 2009082106, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922009
EP, 92, 2009082012, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1297W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009082018, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1305W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009082100, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1312W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009082106, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1317W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2009082112, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1324W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[tolakram]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211140
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[Chacor]

Out of nowhere, really.

[HURAKAN]

21/1200 UTC 13.7N 133.0W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific

Going up fast

[HURAKAN]

390
WHXX01 KMIA 211254
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC FRI AUG 21 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090821 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090821 1200 090822 0000 090822 1200 090823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 132.4W 13.7N 133.7W 14.0N 135.1W 14.3N 136.7W
BAMD 13.3N 132.4W 13.5N 134.4W 13.7N 136.5W 14.0N 138.8W
BAMM 13.3N 132.4W 13.7N 134.1W 14.0N 135.8W 14.4N 137.9W
LBAR 13.3N 132.4W 13.6N 134.2W 14.1N 136.3W 14.8N 138.7W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090823 1200 090824 1200 090825 1200 090826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 138.3W 15.3N 141.3W 16.0N 144.4W 16.2N 147.5W
BAMD 14.2N 141.2W 14.6N 146.2W 14.8N 150.7W 14.9N 154.3W
BAMM 14.7N 140.0W 15.2N 144.5W 15.4N 148.7W 15.3N 152.3W
LBAR 15.4N 141.1W 16.6N 145.8W 18.0N 150.0W 18.9N 153.1W
SHIP 42KTS 50KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 42KTS 50KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 132.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 131.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 129.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Another system Hawaii needs to pay close attention

[masaji79]

I wonder if this will be named by the time it gets into the CPAC. Will we have Hilda or Neki?

[HURAKAN]

I wonder if this will be named by the time it gets into the CPAC. Will we have Hilda or Neki?

If it continues to organize, Hilda is a good possibility

[HURAKAN]

785
ABPZ20 KNHC 211732
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Partially exposed

[HURAKAN]

21/1800 UTC 13.5N 133.8W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific

No change

[HURAKAN]

18z

EP, 92, 2009082118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1338W, 30, 1008, DB

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 132.2W TO 14.1N 138.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 132.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 132.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 1350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
CIRCULATION. A 211439Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A PARTIAL
211418Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221800Z.
//
NNNN

[brunota2003]

Cycloneye: Thanks for the PM...was working though, so I missed it!

[HURAKAN]

Looks like Hawaii is safe

[clfenwi]

22Z TWD:

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N134W MOVING W AT 8 KT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TODAY OR TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 133W-136W.

Interesting to see what happens. Global models are more interested in areas to the east in 3-4 days time. Also, when you look at the basin-wide loop, this kind of has the "fade gracefully into the ITCZ" look to it. We'll see...

[HURAKAN]

403
ABPZ20 KNHC 212341
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1725 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE A LITTLE LESS CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER TODAY...ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

415
WHXX01 KMIA 220025
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0025 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090822 0000 090822 1200 090823 0000 090823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 134.5W 13.9N 135.9W 14.3N 137.2W 14.6N 138.6W
BAMD 13.6N 134.5W 14.0N 136.6W 14.5N 138.7W 14.9N 140.9W
BAMM 13.6N 134.5W 14.1N 136.3W 14.7N 138.0W 15.2N 139.8W
LBAR 13.6N 134.5W 14.0N 136.4W 14.8N 138.6W 15.7N 140.8W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090824 0000 090825 0000 090826 0000 090827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 139.8W 15.4N 142.4W 15.5N 144.8W 15.1N 146.8W
BAMD 15.3N 143.2W 15.5N 148.0W 15.7N 152.3W 15.6N 156.1W
BAMM 15.6N 141.7W 15.8N 145.7W 15.5N 149.7W 15.0N 153.3W
LBAR 16.6N 143.1W 17.9N 147.2W 19.0N 150.4W 20.2N 153.1W
SHIP 51KTS 55KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 51KTS 55KTS 59KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 134.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 133.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 131.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922009 08/22/09 00 UTC *

SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 15 15 14 17 15 17 13 6 7 9
SHEAR DIR 73 71 75 84 93 59 77 73 86 91 86 59 91
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.2

Shear will remain a problem

[HURAKAN]

Convection developing over the center