ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[HURAKAN]

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 29/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 1005A CYCLONE
C. 29/0245Z
D. 35.1N 73.3W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Plane should leave in a little more than an hour

[Nantucket]

This is an interesting read! Your thoughts?

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2009/08/updated-technical-thoughts-on-hybrid-storm-danny-why-no-watches-or-warnings-yet.html

[Stephanie]

This is an interesting read! Your thoughts?

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2009/08/updated-technical-thoughts-on-hybrid-storm-danny-why-no-watches-or-warnings-yet.html

Danny has done so many strange things, anything is possible. He is a meteorologist and could be on to something. Anytime I hear "hybrid storm" and New England in the same sentence, I'm always going to think of the Perfect Storm.

[vbhoutex]

This is an interesting read! Your thoughts?

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2009/08/updated-technical-thoughts-on-hybrid-storm-danny-why-no-watches-or-warnings-yet.html

Danny has done so many strange things, anything is possible. He is a meteorologist and could be on to something. Anytime I hear "hybrid storm" and New England in the same sentence, I'm always going to think of the Perfect Storm.

Like was stated earlier I think he is basically talking about Danny becoming extra-tropical which is expected to happen or begin happening about that time. I wouldn't be surprised if some of his thoughts pan out for ME and the maritimes, but I'm not so sure about the Cape. He is a meteorologist or I presume he is(meaning a degreed met vs OCM w/o full met training) and I am just an amateur but that is what I see.

[clfenwi]

He is a meteorologist or I presume he is(meaning a degreed met vs OCM w/o full met training) and I am just an amateur but that is what I see.

He does hold a degree, see his bio: "Noyes holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from Cornell University, and is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association". Verified that he is on the list of Cornell meteorology alumni.

[HURAKAN]

041
WTNT25 KNHC 290234
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 74.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 74.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.7N 73.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 70.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 44.0N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 47.3N 58.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 51.5N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 53.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 56.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 74.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

DANNY REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND LARGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS ONE
RELIABLE-LOOKING 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DANNY IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FLOW BETWEEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N71W AND THE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

DANNY HAS CONTINUED ITS ERRATIC MOTION THIS EVENING. JUST
BEFORE SUNSET...THE EXPOSED CENTER APPEARED TO BE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS
DISAPPEARED UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE
NORTHWARD AT A FASTER PACE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN
020/10. OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS
UNCHANGED. DANNY SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES...MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT
EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 48 HR.
THE TRACK CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN
ABOUT 12 HR...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD IN 24-30 HR...AND NEAR OR OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR.

DANNY IS ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR A LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION WHILE DANNY IS STILL TROPICAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD ARRIVE IN
DANNY AROUND 06Z TO BETTER DETERMINE THE POSITION AND INTENSITY.
AS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY
IMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS
OFFICES IN THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 31.4N 74.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 34.7N 73.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 39.5N 70.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 44.0N 64.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 31/0000Z 47.3N 58.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 01/0000Z 51.5N 45.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 02/0000Z 53.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/0000Z 56.0N 14.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[kat61]

Check out the link below. Does Danny look like he is trying to get his act together again?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

To be honest, it looks like the LLC is moving northeast and the convection is staying in the same spot and dying then reforming over and over again in a vicious, never ending cycle.

I have to agree. Danny looks like a man without a hat. It's like he split. I've never seen thi before in 5 years of watching storms. has it ever happened before?

[storms NC]

If I didn't know better, I would think that Danny is reforming a couple of hundred miles to the SE in that big blow up of convection... you can see the LLC quickly moving ENE under the top of the convection shield. This thing has 9 lives and several split personalities...

I just seen that and was thinking the same thing.

[tailgater]

Check out the link below. Does Danny look like he is trying to get his act together again?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

To be honest, it looks like the LLC is moving northeast and the convection is staying in the same spot and dying then reforming over and over again in a vicious, never ending cycle.

I have to agree. Danny looks like a man without a hat. It's like he split. I've never seen thi before in 5 years of watching storms. has it ever happened before?

Just looks like a system that has decoupled, happens fairly often in sheared systems but usally they both don't exsist this long.

[deltadog03]

Bye Bye danny boy!!! I wonder if we could leave a piece of him down there long enough and get into a better enviroment and maybe do something.

[gatorcane]

Bye Bye danny boy!!! I wonder if we could leave a piece of him down there long enough and get into a better enviroment and maybe do something.

That piece thing I was thinking about. That would be interesting. Will be watching.

[Aric Dunn]

Bye Bye danny boy!!! I wonder if we could leave a piece of him down there long enough and get into a better enviroment and maybe do something.

well yeah .. i figured i would not say anything.. since well im sure people are sick of this storm.. lol

but it has happened before..

[Aric Dunn]

I guess we were all wondering if this might happen.. lol

i guess more waiting..

[gatorcane]

thing is though there is trough after trough pounding the Eastern CONUS for the next 162 hours at least --- one of those troughs should kick out this area.

[HURAKAN]

252
URNT15 KNHC 290406
AF302 0905A DANNY HDOB 02 20090829
035700 3148N 08110W 7305 02778 9990 +108 +999 248016 017 999 999 05
035730 3149N 08107W 7051 03068 9990 +083 +999 241018 018 999 999 05
035800 3149N 08105W 6959 03181 9990 +072 +999 237018 018 999 999 05
035830 3149N 08102W 6954 03198 9990 +070 +999 237018 018 038 004 05
035900 3149N 08059W 6795 03384 9990 +060 +999 230020 021 020 001 05
035930 3150N 08057W 6427 03850 9990 +050 +999 220022 024 999 999 05
040000 3150N 08054W 6185 04164 9990 +026 +999 227021 021 005 002 05
040030 3150N 08052W 6053 04340 9990 +015 +999 232024 024 002 003 01
040100 3150N 08049W 5892 04526 9990 -002 +999 235026 028 005 002 05
040130 3151N 08047W 5676 04825 9990 -018 +999 233031 032 999 999 05
040200 3151N 08045W 5535 05043 9990 -034 +999 231033 033 000 003 05
040230 3151N 08042W 5424 05207 0239 -037 +999 233038 040 004 002 01
040300 3151N 08040W 5309 05380 0249 -043 +999 232042 043 001 003 05
040330 3151N 08037W 5199 05541 0258 -052 +999 233045 045 003 002 05
040400 3152N 08034W 5085 05718 0270 -055 +999 226047 048 001 003 05
040430 3152N 08032W 4961 05909 0282 -060 +999 221045 046 002 002 05
040500 3152N 08029W 4869 06058 0290 -068 +999 220043 044 000 003 05
040530 3152N 08027W 4848 06086 0289 -071 +999 221044 044 000 002 01
040600 3153N 08024W 4851 06080 0285 -070 +999 221044 045 000 002 01
040630 3153N 08021W 4851 06081 0284 -073 +999 218043 044 000 003 01

[HURAKAN]

424
URNT15 KNHC 290417
AF302 0905A DANNY HDOB 03 20090829
040700 3153N 08018W 4852 06074 0283 -070 +999 219043 043 000 002 01
040730 3154N 08014W 4855 06076 0284 -066 +999 221043 043 000 002 01
040800 3154N 08011W 4853 06075 0281 -066 +999 222043 043 000 003 01
040830 3154N 08008W 4855 06079 0283 -069 +999 222042 042 001 002 01
040900 3154N 08004W 4855 06074 0284 -070 -070 219041 041 004 001 01
040930 3155N 08001W 4853 06083 0286 -069 -069 219040 040 000 002 00
041000 3155N 07958W 4855 06078 0286 -065 -065 221039 039 002 002 00
041030 3155N 07955W 4855 06076 0287 -066 -066 222040 041 002 002 00
041100 3156N 07952W 4855 06081 0288 -065 -065 219039 040 004 002 00
041130 3156N 07948W 4853 06077 0285 -062 -066 216037 038 002 002 00
041200 3156N 07945W 4852 06081 0286 -064 -068 214037 038 002 002 00
041230 3156N 07942W 4853 06080 0284 -070 -070 214040 041 000 003 00
041300 3157N 07939W 4853 06071 0283 -070 -071 214040 040 000 002 00
041330 3157N 07936W 4855 06081 0286 -065 -073 215037 039 000 002 00
041400 3157N 07932W 4853 06077 0285 -073 -075 214041 042 001 002 00
041430 3157N 07929W 4853 06075 0285 -075 -077 215041 041 000 003 00
041500 3158N 07926W 4854 06077 0287 -075 -080 215040 041 000 002 00
041530 3158N 07923W 4853 06076 0288 -075 -082 216040 040 000 002 00
041600 3158N 07920W 4853 06074 0289 -072 -084 216039 039 000 002 00
041630 3159N 07916W 4852 06083 0289 -072 -086 217039 040 001 002 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

Danny is a goner! Not sure what will happen to that piece of energy it's leaving behind.

[HURAKAN]

356
URNT15 KNHC 290426
AF302 0905A DANNY HDOB 04 20090829
041700 3159N 07913W 4856 06079 0294 -069 -088 217037 038 001 002 00
041730 3159N 07910W 4851 06096 0295 -070 -088 219038 038 004 002 00
041800 3159N 07907W 4853 06088 0296 -070 -089 219038 038 002 002 00
041830 3200N 07904W 4855 06088 0297 -070 -090 218037 037 010 001 00
041900 3200N 07900W 4853 06090 0299 -072 -091 216037 037 007 001 00
041930 3159N 07857W 4854 06095 0300 -075 -091 215037 037 010 004 00
042000 3159N 07854W 4855 06091 0301 -074 -091 211037 037 017 002 00
042030 3159N 07851W 4853 06093 0302 -072 -091 209038 038 011 005 00
042100 3158N 07848W 4853 06095 0303 -072 -092 209037 038 010 002 00
042130 3158N 07845W 4855 06089 0301 -069 -093 208038 038 006 002 00
042200 3157N 07842W 4855 06093 0304 -067 -094 211038 038 006 002 03
042230 3157N 07839W 4853 06089 0300 -069 -094 213038 039 999 999 03
042300 3156N 07836W 4855 06089 0299 -068 -095 216038 039 999 999 03
042330 3156N 07833W 4852 06099 0300 -068 -094 219037 039 999 999 03
042400 3155N 07830W 4855 06093 0302 -070 -093 220033 034 999 999 03
042430 3155N 07827W 4855 06089 0303 -068 -094 218033 033 999 999 03
042500 3154N 07824W 4853 06095 0302 -065 -095 216034 035 999 999 03
042530 3154N 07821W 4853 06092 0300 -065 -096 217036 037 999 999 03
042600 3153N 07818W 4855 06093 0303 -066 -096 218036 037 999 999 03
042630 3153N 07815W 4855 06095 0302 -069 -096 219036 037 999 999 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

884
URNT15 KNHC 290436
AF302 0905A DANNY HDOB 05 20090829
042700 3152N 07812W 4854 06089 0298 -065 -097 220039 039 999 999 03
042730 3152N 07808W 4853 06101 0303 -065 -099 219039 039 999 999 03
042800 3151N 07805W 4855 06087 0301 -063 -100 219039 039 999 999 03
042830 3151N 07802W 4853 06094 0301 -065 -100 219039 039 999 999 03
042900 3150N 07759W 4855 06088 0303 -065 -101 218038 038 999 999 03
042930 3150N 07756W 4855 06095 0306 -065 -102 218037 037 999 999 03
043000 3149N 07753W 4853 06100 0306 -065 -103 222036 036 999 999 03
043030 3149N 07750W 4853 06095 0306 -065 -104 223034 035 999 999 03
043100 3148N 07747W 4855 06097 0307 -065 -104 226033 034 999 999 03
043130 3147N 07744W 4855 06097 0307 -068 -103 225032 032 999 999 03
043200 3147N 07741W 4852 06099 0307 -065 -102 227033 033 999 999 03
043230 3146N 07738W 4853 06099 0307 -066 -101 229033 033 999 999 03
043300 3146N 07735W 4855 06094 0307 -067 -101 227033 033 999 999 03
043330 3145N 07732W 4853 06096 0308 -070 -101 224032 032 999 999 03
043400 3145N 07728W 4855 06102 0310 -070 -101 221032 032 999 999 03
043430 3144N 07725W 4855 06100 0312 -066 -102 220033 033 999 999 03
043500 3144N 07722W 4852 06106 0313 -069 -102 222034 034 999 999 03
043530 3143N 07719W 4854 06101 0312 -070 -102 222035 036 999 999 03
043600 3143N 07716W 4855 06109 0313 -070 -102 220035 035 999 999 03
043630 3142N 07713W 4853 06109 0314 -071 -102 220035 035 999 999 03
$$
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