EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908242144
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2009, DB, O, 2009082418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932009
AL, 93, 2009082318, , BEST, 0, 105N, 695W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009082400, , BEST, 0, 107N, 718W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009082406, , BEST, 0, 108N, 740W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009082412, , BEST, 0, 110N, 767W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2009082418, , BEST, 0, 113N, 792W, 20, 1006, DB, 34,

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater,this is your Caribbean Cruiser

[RL3AO]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

UPDATED...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 242145
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2145 UTC MON AUG 24 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090824 1800 090825 0600 090825 1800 090826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 79.2W 11.6N 82.3W 12.2N 85.1W 12.5N 87.6W
BAMD 11.3N 79.2W 11.7N 82.3W 12.2N 85.2W 12.6N 87.9W
BAMM 11.3N 79.2W 11.4N 82.6W 11.7N 85.7W 11.9N 88.3W
LBAR 11.3N 79.2W 11.8N 83.1W 12.7N 87.1W 13.7N 90.9W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 27KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090826 1800 090827 1800 090828 1800 090829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 90.2W 13.3N 94.8W 13.7N 99.0W 15.4N 103.7W
BAMD 13.0N 90.3W 13.2N 95.0W 13.8N 99.7W 16.0N 104.1W
BAMM 12.1N 90.8W 12.0N 95.3W 12.3N 100.0W 13.9N 104.4W
LBAR 14.8N 94.4W 16.5N 99.4W 18.9N 102.1W 21.4N 102.7W
SHIP 56KTS 76KTS 89KTS 110KTS
DSHP 47KTS 67KTS 80KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 79.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

This could be Jimena in a few days

[KWT]

Looks like a probable EPAC system IMO, still can't rule out it exploding towards TD status before land, it does have enough time as Claudette showed.

[wxman57]

It'll be inland before noon tomorrow and moving west into the East Pac. Not much to be concerned about except for rainfall in Central America.

[clfenwi]

This seems to be the source for a relatively eastern forming (~100°) Pacific storm GFS and European models have been advertising for next weekend.

[jinftl]

In 6 or 8 weeks, a system forming here would scare the you know what out of floridians...troughs that could bring these systems north a la wilma would not be our friend like they are for cape verde systems

[MGC]

I doubt it developes in the Carribean but will have a good chance to spin once it hits the EPAC....MGC

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 250024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090825 0000 090825 1200 090826 0000 090826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 81.5W 11.6N 84.2W 12.1N 86.7W 12.4N 89.3W
BAMD 11.3N 81.5W 11.8N 84.2W 12.3N 86.7W 12.9N 89.0W
BAMM 11.3N 81.5W 11.8N 84.1W 12.4N 86.6W 13.0N 88.9W
LBAR 11.3N 81.5W 11.7N 85.5W 12.7N 89.2W 13.7N 92.9W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090827 0000 090828 0000 090829 0000 090830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 91.6W 13.7N 96.3W 14.4N 100.6W 15.6N 105.0W
BAMD 13.4N 91.2W 14.3N 95.6W 15.5N 100.0W 17.4N 104.2W
BAMM 13.6N 91.0W 14.4N 95.6W 15.4N 100.3W 16.8N 105.0W
LBAR 14.8N 96.2W 17.2N 100.8W 20.4N 102.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 55KTS 74KTS 87KTS 102KTS
DSHP 46KTS 65KTS 78KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 76.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 26KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 71.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Sanibel]

Should water Managua with some good tropical rain.


The fact the south Caribbean bursts like this makes me worry about later on this season.

[clfenwi]

Both the GFDL and HWRF found something to track along into the Pacific.

If it takes too long to develop in the Pacific, it could actually miss out on being Jimena and become Kevin, instead as the GFS and (12Z) UKMET develop a storm further west about five days out (GFS gives this system a slight edge in being first to form).

[clfenwi]

ABNT20 KNHC 250534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
WHEN THE SYSTEM REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN A DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Could be a threat to Mexico down the road.

[lrak]

grasping at anything so don't laugh, but on the last model runs 93L makes a hard right. Could the moisture cross MX and into S. TX?

[Outlaw JW]

grasping at anything so don't laugh, but on the last model runs 93L makes a hard right. Could the moisture cross MX and into S. TX?

I'm with you Irak. The worst Texas drought in my 39 years on this earth. 100 year old trees are dying. Mighty parched!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... km_visible



In the loop a mid-level rotation is entering the EPAC

[somethingfunny]

When this enters the EPAC, does it get renumbered as 94E? If it does, would this thread be renamed or would it drop the pages as a new thread is created?