EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[bombarderoazul]

I wonder if hurricane carlos will be upgraded in the post season as well, I think it was at least a cat 3 storm at it's best. This would mean that there have been four major hurricanes in the Epac so far.

[srainhoutx]

photos from Puerto San Carlos...Chasers report 2 hour eye with good structure dispite IR imager and 97's barometric pressure.

[Bocadude85]

Thanks for posting the pics.

[Andrew92]

Some more pictures:














Good sources for these and other pictures include Yahoo! News, AP, Reuters, CNN, MSNBC, and probably many others.

I'm also trying something new this year while on the topic of pictures of Hurricane Jimena. I'm creating PowerPoint presentations on some of the tropical cyclones that hit land this year. I'll try to remember to post this in a future thread when more NHC reports get released. Already, I have 55 slides for Hurricane Jimena, including all of the pictures in this post and many others.

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

Still looks good, even over land

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive cyclone. I bet we see and hear more from the effects of Jimena in the days to come.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009

WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OF
JIMENA...LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA IS DECOUPLING FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER
24 HOURS.

JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND COOL WATER TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA WILL WEAKEN AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 27.0N 112.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 27.9N 112.8W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 04/0000Z 28.1N 113.5W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 114.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/0000Z 27.9N 114.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER
72HR VT 06/0000Z 27.7N 115.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z 27.5N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Sanibel]

North heading Baja landfaller. Palms don't look too bad.

[LaBreeze]

Very impressive cyclone. I bet we see and hear more from the effects of Jimena in the days to come.

I heard a local met mention tonight that there was a possibility of a low level circulation of what will be left of Jimena, may cross over and enter the western GOM by the weekend - enhancing rainfall. I'm having a hard time believing this, but hey, strange things do happen. Anyone else heard something similar to this "possible" scenario?

[vbhoutex]

Very impressive cyclone. I bet we see and hear more from the effects of Jimena in the days to come.

I heard a local met mention tonight that there was a possibility of a low level circulation of what will be left of Jimena, may cross over and enter the western GOM by the weekend - enhancing rainfall. I'm having a hard time believing this, but hey, strange things do happen. Anyone else heard something similar to this "possible" scenario?

The moisture associated with Jimena may/probably will get caught up and head easterly, but the low level circulation will be destroyed by the mountains in Northern Mexico long before it makes its way to the GOM imo.

[HURAKAN]

Jimena is NASA TV

[HURAKAN]

375
WTPZ33 KNHC 031135
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

...JIMENA WEAKENING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF LORETO TO CALAMAJUE ON THE EAST
COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO NORTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...55 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JIMENA WILL BE NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY...
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND JIMENA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH JIMENA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.8N 112.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

196
WTPZ43 KNHC 031432
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER
OF JIMENA THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER
CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A
GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS.

STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME
WEAK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND BAM SHALLOW.

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Not much left of the monster

[HURAKAN]

Good times are over for Jimena

[LaBreeze]

Very impressive cyclone. I bet we see and hear more from the effects of Jimena in the days to come.

I heard a local met mention tonight that there was a possibility of a low level circulation of what will be left of Jimena, may cross over and enter the western GOM by the weekend - enhancing rainfall. I'm having a hard time believing this, but hey, strange things do happen. Anyone else heard something similar to this "possible" scenario?

The moisture associated with Jimena may/probably will get caught up and head easterly, but the low level circulation will be destroyed by the mountains in Northern Mexico long before it makes its way to the GOM imo.

That's my thoughts exactly vbhoutex.

[bombarderoazul]

It's still a tropical storm, it looks like the warm waters of the gulf of california are allowing the system to stay alive. Fortunately the damage was not as bad as it had been predicted and so far only one fatality has been confirmed.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040246
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009

JIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND BASED ON A
DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 35-KT
TROPICAL STORM. MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER OF JIMENA REMAINS OVER THE
WARM WATER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IT COULD REMAIN A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM LONGER SHOWN BELOW.

THE TRACK MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO
COMMENCE VERY SOON...WHICH WOULD TAKE JIMENA BACK OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT...BUT DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT THAT HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
NHC ADVISORY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 27.5N 111.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 27.3N 111.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 27.1N 112.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/1200Z 26.8N 112.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 06/0000Z 26.5N 113.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

It's still a tropical storm, it looks like the warm waters of the gulf of california are allowing the system to stay alive. Fortunately the damage was not as bad as it had been predicted and so far only one fatality has been confirmed.

You're forgetting about the massive rains being dumped on the mainland...

[HURAKAN]

Continues to produce convection