EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN (14E)
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bombarderoazul
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 186
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm
Re: EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E
If this ones forms, we could be looking at Kevin. The month of August has been very busy in the EPAC.
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
Re: EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E
It's catching up. I think there will be another flurry of storms in October.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM KEVIN (14-E)
ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF
THE MONTH IN THE EAST PACIFIC...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1065 MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 122.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...RESULTING IN DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND 1800 UTC. BASED ON
THIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO KEVIN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT. KEVIN IS THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM TO FORM THIS MONTH IN
THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN...THE MOST IN AUGUST SINCE 1968 AND THE MOST
IN ANY MONTH SINCE 1985.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF KEVIN IS LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...RESULTING IN
LIGHT STEERING CURRENT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING
VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LONGER-TERM INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/08 WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE GUIDANCE...AND
THE ADVISORY MOTION IS 290/04.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WIDE SPREAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE
CANADIAN NOW SHOW AT LEAST SOME EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THIS
SEEMS TO BE DUE TO INTERACTION OF KEVIN WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWEST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE AMOUNT OF
EASTWARD MOTION VARIES DRAMATICALLY...WITH THE UKMET...GFDL...
GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF SHOWING AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION
THROUGH DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE HWRF...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN
SHOW A TURN TO THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SORT
OUT THESE DIFFERENCES SINCE THE GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES OF BOTH
JIMENA AND KEVIN SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK. ALSO...THE HWRF RUN FOR KEVIN
HAS AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK REPRESENTATION OF JIMENA...WHICH IS THE
MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
ALL THIS BEING SAID...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MODIFIED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITIALLY...THE TRACK IS
FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRENDS TOWARD THE MODELS THAT SHOW THE EASTWARD TURN. AFTER AN
INITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION...THE FORECAST TURNS KEVIN NORTHWARD BY 24
HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT SLOW SPEED
THROUGH DAY 4. BY DAY 5...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
INDICATED...DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY AIDS. GIVEN RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH 36
HOURS...SHOWING A PEAK AT 50 KT FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE LATER
IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR BEGINS
TO INCREASE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 12.8N 122.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.2N 122.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 15.1N 122.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 16.1N 122.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 17.5N 121.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF
THE MONTH IN THE EAST PACIFIC...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1065 MILES...1720 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 122.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...RESULTING IN DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND 1800 UTC. BASED ON
THIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO KEVIN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KT. KEVIN IS THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM TO FORM THIS MONTH IN
THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN...THE MOST IN AUGUST SINCE 1968 AND THE MOST
IN ANY MONTH SINCE 1985.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF KEVIN IS LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...RESULTING IN
LIGHT STEERING CURRENT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING
VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LONGER-TERM INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/08 WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE GUIDANCE...AND
THE ADVISORY MOTION IS 290/04.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WIDE SPREAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE
CANADIAN NOW SHOW AT LEAST SOME EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THIS
SEEMS TO BE DUE TO INTERACTION OF KEVIN WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWEST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE AMOUNT OF
EASTWARD MOTION VARIES DRAMATICALLY...WITH THE UKMET...GFDL...
GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF SHOWING AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION
THROUGH DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE HWRF...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN
SHOW A TURN TO THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SORT
OUT THESE DIFFERENCES SINCE THE GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES OF BOTH
JIMENA AND KEVIN SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK. ALSO...THE HWRF RUN FOR KEVIN
HAS AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK REPRESENTATION OF JIMENA...WHICH IS THE
MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
ALL THIS BEING SAID...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MODIFIED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITIALLY...THE TRACK IS
FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRENDS TOWARD THE MODELS THAT SHOW THE EASTWARD TURN. AFTER AN
INITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION...THE FORECAST TURNS KEVIN NORTHWARD BY 24
HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT SLOW SPEED
THROUGH DAY 4. BY DAY 5...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
INDICATED...DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY AIDS. GIVEN RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH 36
HOURS...SHOWING A PEAK AT 50 KT FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE LATER
IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR BEGINS
TO INCREASE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 12.8N 122.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.2N 122.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 15.1N 122.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 16.1N 122.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 17.5N 121.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM KEVIN (14E)
Funnily enough, 1985 was the same point in the annual name cycle. That year, the seven storms in July were Fefa, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, and Linda.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM KEVIN (14E)
369
WTPZ44 KNHC 300237
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2113Z 36 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. A
CIMSS/NESDIS/NRL AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AROUND THE SAME TIME
PERIOD REFLECTS AN INTENSITY OF 48 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THESE DATA AND A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...KEVIN IS EXPECTED
WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KEVIN IS CURRENTLY RESIDING WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO...AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
CYCLONE AND HURRICANE JIMENA. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD DRIFT 350/5 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TWO MODEL CLUSTERS DESCRIBE
DISSIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIOS. THE GFDL/GFDN/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND THE ECMWF GROUP SUGGEST A GRADUAL NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND
CLUSTER INCLUDES THE HWRF/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CANADIAN. THESE
MODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. SINCE THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
GROUPINGS REMAINS QUITE LARGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE MORE
DOMINANT CLUSTER. A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS IS
ALSO REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.4N 122.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 14.8N 122.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 15.6N 121.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 16.3N 121.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 18.5N 119.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
WTPZ44 KNHC 300237
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2113Z 36 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. A
CIMSS/NESDIS/NRL AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AROUND THE SAME TIME
PERIOD REFLECTS AN INTENSITY OF 48 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THESE DATA AND A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD...KEVIN IS EXPECTED
WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
KEVIN IS CURRENTLY RESIDING WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO...AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
CYCLONE AND HURRICANE JIMENA. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD DRIFT 350/5 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TWO MODEL CLUSTERS DESCRIBE
DISSIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIOS. THE GFDL/GFDN/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND THE ECMWF GROUP SUGGEST A GRADUAL NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND
CLUSTER INCLUDES THE HWRF/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CANADIAN. THESE
MODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. SINCE THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
GROUPINGS REMAINS QUITE LARGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE MORE
DOMINANT CLUSTER. A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS IS
ALSO REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.4N 122.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.9N 122.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 14.8N 122.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 15.6N 121.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 16.3N 121.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 18.5N 119.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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WTPZ44 KNHC 300848
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
ALTHOUGH KEVIN HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED JUST UNDERNEATH THE
HEAD OF A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND THIS PATTERN IS YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A 0243 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.
WITH THE HELP OF A 0045 UTC TRMM AND A 0155 UTC WINDSAT PASS...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/6. KEVIN LIES ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN IT AND HURRICANE
JIMENA...AND THIS IS CAUSING THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND KEVIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THAT TIME. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW KEVIN WILL INTERACT
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JIMENA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PLAYING A GAME OF PINBALL...PULLING KEVIN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
JIMENA AND THEN PUSHING IT BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARD A
NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST. THE
HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE ONLY TWO WHICH STILL SHOW KEVIN
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION BY
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN STRENGTHENING VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. KEVIN WILL REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATER...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALSO...BOTH
THE GFDL AND HWRF INDICATE NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND STEADY
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT KEVIN WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHOWS
SLOW WEAKENING STARTING AT 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE A COHERENT
VORTEX BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KEVIN MAY NOT
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THEN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.1N 121.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 15.5N 121.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 16.2N 120.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 120.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 119.1W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 19.2N 118.2W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
ALTHOUGH KEVIN HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED JUST UNDERNEATH THE
HEAD OF A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND THIS PATTERN IS YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A 0243 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.
WITH THE HELP OF A 0045 UTC TRMM AND A 0155 UTC WINDSAT PASS...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/6. KEVIN LIES ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN IT AND HURRICANE
JIMENA...AND THIS IS CAUSING THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND KEVIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THAT TIME. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW KEVIN WILL INTERACT
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JIMENA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PLAYING A GAME OF PINBALL...PULLING KEVIN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
JIMENA AND THEN PUSHING IT BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARD A
NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST. THE
HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE ONLY TWO WHICH STILL SHOW KEVIN
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION BY
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN STRENGTHENING VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. KEVIN WILL REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATER...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALSO...BOTH
THE GFDL AND HWRF INDICATE NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND STEADY
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT KEVIN WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHOWS
SLOW WEAKENING STARTING AT 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE A COHERENT
VORTEX BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KEVIN MAY NOT
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THEN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.1N 121.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 15.5N 121.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 16.2N 120.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 120.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 119.1W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 19.2N 118.2W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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WTPZ34 KNHC 301435
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...KEVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST OR ABOUT 960
MILES...1540 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCING ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 121.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
...KEVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST OR ABOUT 960
MILES...1540 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
KEVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCING ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 121.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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WTPZ44 KNHC 301444
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN OF KEVIN...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE PRIMARY
BAND HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN PRODUCED BY JIMENA WILL CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...ULTIMATELY TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT KEVIN WILL DISSIPATE IN
96 HOURS OR LESS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/6...WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENT. DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS...KEVIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRODUCED BY A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREES WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF
THE NOGAPS/GFS/GFDL/UKMET AND ECMWF...UPON WHICH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.8N 121.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.4N 121.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 120.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 17.6N 119.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W 35 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN OF KEVIN...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE PRIMARY
BAND HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN PRODUCED BY JIMENA WILL CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...ULTIMATELY TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT KEVIN WILL DISSIPATE IN
96 HOURS OR LESS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/6...WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENT. DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS...KEVIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRODUCED BY A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREES WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF
THE NOGAPS/GFS/GFDL/UKMET AND ECMWF...UPON WHICH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.8N 121.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.4N 121.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 16.9N 120.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 17.6N 119.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W 35 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM KEVIN (14E)
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302036
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KEVIN HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A LESS THAN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A 1346 UTC QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED A SMALL PATCH OF REASONABLE 40 KT WINDS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
DATA-T NUMBERS ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KEVIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 4
AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
TOWARD AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO AND COINCIDES WITH THE SHIPS AND
HURRICANE MODELS.
KEVIN IS MAINTAINING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON...360/5.
THE STEERING FLOW IS PRODUCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY MID PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE KEVIN TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS AGAIN BASED
ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 15.3N 121.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 121.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 16.6N 120.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 17.3N 120.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 17.9N 119.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W 25 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 19.3N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
WTPZ44 KNHC 302036
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KEVIN HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A LESS THAN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A 1346 UTC QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED A SMALL PATCH OF REASONABLE 40 KT WINDS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
DATA-T NUMBERS ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KEVIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 4
AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
TOWARD AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO AND COINCIDES WITH THE SHIPS AND
HURRICANE MODELS.
KEVIN IS MAINTAINING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON...360/5.
THE STEERING FLOW IS PRODUCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY MID PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE KEVIN TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS AGAIN BASED
ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 15.3N 121.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 121.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 16.6N 120.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 17.3N 120.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 17.9N 119.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W 25 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 19.3N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM KEVIN (14E)
Continued to weaken
EP, 14, 2009083100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1218W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 35, 50, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KEVIN, M,
EP, 14, 2009083100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1218W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 35, 50, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KEVIN, M,
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM KEVIN (14E)
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 310244
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN CONSISTS
OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER BY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN EARLIER ASCAT
OVERPASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF UNCONTAMINATED 25-30 KT WIND
VECTORS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WITH WEAKER WINDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 3.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT
PASS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND A GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN PREDICTING A CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF KEVIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVEN THOUGH THE
SHEAR APPEARS LOW AND THE WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM. THE KEY TO THE
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 4...IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
KEVIN IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE LATEST MOTION
ESTIMATED AT 005/06. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DANGLING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALBEIT IT FAIRLY SLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
ACCOUNT FOR A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 16.4N 121.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 17.6N 120.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 18.3N 119.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 18.9N 119.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
WTPZ44 KNHC 310244
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN CONSISTS
OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER BY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN EARLIER ASCAT
OVERPASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF UNCONTAMINATED 25-30 KT WIND
VECTORS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WITH WEAKER WINDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 3.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT
PASS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND A GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN PREDICTING A CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF KEVIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVEN THOUGH THE
SHEAR APPEARS LOW AND THE WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM. THE KEY TO THE
WEAKENING APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY
DAY 4...IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
KEVIN IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE LATEST MOTION
ESTIMATED AT 005/06. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DANGLING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALBEIT IT FAIRLY SLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
ACCOUNT FOR A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 16.4N 121.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 17.6N 120.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 18.3N 119.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 18.9N 119.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM KEVIN (14E)
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
A 0216 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT KEVIN HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF
35 KT CONFINED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BEEN
SHRINKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION
THAT KEVIN MAY NOT CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.
EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS KEVIN BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
THE MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 015/5. KEVIN IS BEING
STEERED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEAR AXIS TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THERE IS GREATER
SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER THAT POINT WITH SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST TURN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LEAD OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS WHICH SHOW KEVIN
DISSIPATING AS EARLY AS 48-72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 16.3N 121.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.8N 121.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 17.4N 121.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 18.1N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/0600Z 18.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
A 0216 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT KEVIN HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF
35 KT CONFINED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BEEN
SHRINKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION
THAT KEVIN MAY NOT CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.
EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS KEVIN BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.
THE MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 015/5. KEVIN IS BEING
STEERED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEAR AXIS TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THERE IS GREATER
SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER THAT POINT WITH SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST TURN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LEAD OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS WHICH SHOW KEVIN
DISSIPATING AS EARLY AS 48-72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 16.3N 121.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 16.8N 121.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 17.4N 121.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 18.1N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/0600Z 18.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN (14E)
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 311434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
KEVIN IS GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY DRY...AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE
CIRCULATION. UNLESS THERE IS A RESURGENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...KEVIN WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/05. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LIGHT AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFNI AND
CANADIAN MODELS DRAW KEVIN OR ITS REMNANTS EASTWARD BEHIND
JIMENA...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
WESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST
A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 16.7N 121.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ44 KNHC 311434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
KEVIN IS GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY DRY...AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE
CIRCULATION. UNLESS THERE IS A RESURGENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...KEVIN WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/05. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
LIGHT AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFNI AND
CANADIAN MODELS DRAW KEVIN OR ITS REMNANTS EASTWARD BEHIND
JIMENA...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL
WESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST
A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 16.7N 121.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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WTPZ34 KNHC 010238
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...KEVIN POORLY-ORGANIZED...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST OR ABOUT
840 MILES...1355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND KEVIN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 121.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
WTPZ34 KNHC 010238
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...KEVIN POORLY-ORGANIZED...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST OR ABOUT
840 MILES...1355 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND KEVIN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 121.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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