WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C

[HURAKAN]

Code Orange

650 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of low pressure, formerly tropical cyclone Hilda, located about 550 miles south of Honolulu is moving west near 15 mph. Tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours is not likely to occur.

2. An area of disturbed weather about 1200 miles west southwest Kauai is moving west near 10 mph. Thunderstorms have shown better organization over the past six hours. Slow development of this system is possible over the next two days as it continues moving west.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Sunday morning.

[HURAKAN]

28/1800 UTC 14.7N 176.9W T1.5/1.5 95C -- Central Pacific

Very small system

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 30 knots

[Aslkahuna]

The big question is will the system be called before it crosses into WPAC.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

95C and Hilda's remnants

[clfenwi]

This invest has been out there for a few days now. When it was first started, however, it looked like another one of those one/two day invests. As such, I was a bit surprised last night to see model guidance for it. Almost started a thread on it, but noticed that CPHC still had this at low probability, so I didn't bother. But here we are.

[HURAKAN]

GFDL intensifies this system quite a bit

[HURAKAN]

WTPN23 PHNC 282300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 176.1W TO 15.9N 177.1E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. METSAT IMAGERY AT
282200Z INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 176.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
176.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 176.9W, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 281910Z SSMIS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES A COMPACT FORMATIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Very small system

[Chacor]

BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_cp952009_cp022009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908281505
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 02, 2009, DB, O, 2009082700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP022009
CP, 02, 2009082606, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1709W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 02, 2009082612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1715W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 02, 2009082618, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1721W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 02, 2009082700, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1726W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 02, 2009082706, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1730W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 02, 2009082712, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1734W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 02, 2009082718, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1736W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 02, 2009082800, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1745W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 02, 2009082806, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1755W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 75, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 02, 2009082812, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1763W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 75, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 02, 2009082818, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1769W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 75, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
CP, 02, 2009082900, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1775W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 25, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Two-C?

[clfenwi]

Two-C?

Looks like it:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 290108
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0108 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (CP022009) 20090829 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        090829  0000   090829  1200   090830  0000   090830  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N 177.5W   15.2N 179.1W   15.7N 178.9E   16.2N 176.8E
BAMD    14.9N 177.5W   15.4N 178.7W   16.0N 179.9W   16.6N 178.8E
BAMM    14.9N 177.5W   15.3N 178.8W   15.8N 179.7E   16.3N 178.2E
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        090831  0000   090901  0000   090902  0000   090903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N 174.8E   17.8N 171.6E   18.6N 169.7E   19.4N 169.0E
BAMD    17.0N 177.7E   17.3N 176.1E   17.6N 175.3E   19.4N 174.6E
BAMM    16.6N 176.6E   17.2N 174.2E   17.7N 172.9E   19.1N 172.0E
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.9N LONCUR = 177.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  14.7N LONM12 = 176.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 = 174.5W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Iune]

TD 2-C

CP, 02, 2009082900, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1775W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 25, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M,

[HURAKAN]

29/0000 UTC 14.9N 177.2W T2.0/2.0 95C -- Central Pacific

Latest

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

WTPA31 PHFO 290258
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022009
500 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2009

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 560 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1370
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE IN BETWEEN
JOHNSTON ATOLL AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 177.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

Close call as to whether this will be named by the CPHC or JMA. Recurve is forecast, per the models.

WTPA41 PHFO 290259
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022009
500 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2009

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL...AND
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE...HAS GAINED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SECOND TO
FORM WITHIN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN THIS YEAR. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LINES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MANUAL ANALYSIS OF
DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 18Z QUIKSCAT PASS...PROVIDE STRONG
EVIDENCE OF A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
MEANWHILE...THE SURROUNDING CIRRUS CLOUD PATTERN INDICATES AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2.0. VERY
RECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
CONCENTRATED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE DEPRESSION IS HEADED SLOWLY WESTWARD OR ABOUT 280/6...TO THE
SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE
DATELINE MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY TO GAIN MUCH FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...MOST DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE FIVE-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE LOW DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ALONG THE DATELINE. WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE NORTHWARD TURN...THE SPREAD IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT SINCE SOME
MODELS ACCELERATE A STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE
MIDLATITUDE LOW...WHILE OTHERS FORECAST A SLOW MOTION WITHIN THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THE SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO QUICKLY RECURVE...AND SHOWS A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTH BY DAY 5...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28
CELSIUS...AND THE UNDERLYING WATERS WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48
HOURS...THEN IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST...WITH WEAKENING AT THE END UNDER STRONG SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.9N 177.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.1N 178.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.3N 179.6E 35 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.7N 178.2E 40 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 16.2N 176.8E 40 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 17.5N 175.0E 35 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 174.5E 35 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 21.5N 175.5E 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

It was numbered on the CPAC but I guess that it will be named with a WPAC name, right?

[Chacor]

No, that would depend on where it attains tropical storm intensity.

[Macrocane]

No, that would depend on where it attains tropical storm intensity.

Thanks, I thought that this would be on the WPAC by the next advisory time, but it is expected to be on the CPAC so if it intensifies a little faster than forecasted then it will have a CPAC name.